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Zapad - should we fret this September?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Zhopa, Aug 23, 2017.

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By 21 September, Russia will have...

Poll closed Sep 12, 2017.
  1. invaded Ukraine from the north

    1 vote(s)
    2.1%
  2. launched an operation into the Suwałki gap from Belarus

    1 vote(s)
    2.1%
  3. done a Crimea somewhere in the neighbourhood

    2 vote(s)
    4.3%
  4. stayed behind in Belarus whether Minsk likes it or not

    8 vote(s)
    17.0%
  5. calmly carried off the exercise as planned and gone home saying "what's all the fuss about?"

    35 vote(s)
    74.5%
  1. It was just a flying visit on the way back from Romania. Gone the same week.
     
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  2. Germany disputes size of Russian wargames, predicts 100,000 troops
    Germany disputes the size of participating forces. Unlike the annual US/RoK exercises, the volume of participating troops has constantly been debated and obviously Russia has recently occupied and annexed part of another sovereign country, unlike RoK. 15,000 declared, estimated 100,000 will take part (without observers):
     
  3. After some wild stabs in the dark, this figure of 100,000 seems to have settled down as the standard number used by Western politicians for how big it's going to be. But I haven't seen anywhere what it's based on... are they all just repeating what each other said, or is there some solid assessment behind the nice round number?
     
  4. I think you're right about the repeating Estonia, then NATO (60-100k) now Germany. I believe they're talking about the broader aspects e.g. principle Ex in Belarus and those involved in other parts outside Belarus such as civilian support, MPs, logs, other units, rotating through Ex areas etc etc

    We'll find out in four days or more which will obviously be denied if it does exceed as it doesn't comply with the Vienna Accord: Vienna Document 2011 | OSCE
     
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  5. Yes, interesting... ;)

    Russia expert Keir Giles, a fellow at Chatham House think tank, acknowledges that "previous Russian exercises on this scale have prepositioned troops for undertaking military operations, against Georgia in 2008 and against Ukraine in 2014".
     
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  6. Actually down, or just misconfigured?

    Screen Shot 2017-09-11 at 11.28.21.png
     
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  7. Zapad's goal is 'to frighten us'- Lithuanian president
    I like the fact that the Lithuanian President won't be there during Ex Zapad 2017 and will be addressing the UN:
    A (not so) veiled hint:
     
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