Zapad - should we fret this September?

By 21 September, Russia will have...

  • invaded Ukraine from the north

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • launched an operation into the Suwałki gap from Belarus

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • done a Crimea somewhere in the neighbourhood

    Votes: 2 4.3%
  • stayed behind in Belarus whether Minsk likes it or not

    Votes: 8 17.0%
  • calmly carried off the exercise as planned and gone home saying "what's all the fuss about?"

    Votes: 35 74.5%

  • Total voters
    47
  • Poll closed .
#42
I thought @YarS absence was due to him sulking in a corner somewhere because of him being thought Ukrainian. Must have been hard to hear that.

I think @KGB_resident has done us a favour.
I myself at 1/2 ethnically Ukrainian. Name Yaroslav (or in Polish variant Yaroslaw) is rarely used in Russia. Never in my life I met a person with such a name. But the name is frequent in Poland, Czech republic, in Ukraine (rather in Western Ukraine).
So our friend @YarS is most likely Ukrainian from Western Ukraine.
Probably he is banned.
 
#43
I myself at 1/2 ethnically Ukrainian. Name Yaroslav (or in Polish variant Yaroslaw) is rarely used in Russia. Never in my life I met a person with such a name. But the name is frequent in Poland, Czech republic, in Ukraine (rather in Western Ukraine).
So our friend @YarS is most likely Ukrainian from Western Ukraine.
Probably he is banned.
He said he has family in E Ukraine. It's possible that he does and the family originate from that area. Still think he's Russian though, but that's enough on @YarS as saying his name so many times may bring him back again :)
 
#44
I myself at 1/2 ethnically Ukrainian. Name Yaroslav (or in Polish variant Yaroslaw) is rarely used in Russia. Never in my life I met a person with such a name. But the name is frequent in Poland, Czech republic, in Ukraine (rather in Western Ukraine).
So our friend @YarS is most likely Ukrainian from Western Ukraine.
Probably he is banned.
The Polish variant is actually "Jarosław". The 'J' in the Polish alphabet phonetically is said like a 'y'.
 
#45
He said he has family in E Ukraine. It's possible that he does and the family originate from that area. Still think he's Russian though, but that's enough on @YarS as saying his name so many times may bring him back again :)
During Soviet times there was signifucant movemnet of population from Western parts (poor, mainly agrarian) of Ukraine to eastern parts (industrial heartlands). My late Mother-in-law recalled that her brother (they lived in a big village in Estern Ukraine) married to a lass from Western Ukraine. Her numerous sisters visited her frequently and conversated using local dialect that my Mother-in-Law didn't understand.
Now Ukrainians try to find job where it is possible. Yesterday in Reus airport (80 km from Barcelona) I rented a car and namely a Ukrainian serviced my (there is a lot of Russian tourists in Spain).
 
#48
Germany disputes size of Russian wargames, predicts 100,000 troops
Germany disputes the size of participating forces. Unlike the annual US/RoK exercises, the volume of participating troops has constantly been debated and obviously Russia has recently occupied and annexed part of another sovereign country, unlike RoK. 15,000 declared, estimated 100,000 will take part (without observers):
“It is undisputed that we are seeing a demonstration of capabilities and power of the Russians,” German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen told reporters at an EU defense ministers’ meeting in Tallinn.

“Anyone who doubts that only has to look at the high numbers of participating forces in the Zapad exercise: more than one hundred thousand,” she said in a joint news conference with her French counterpart Florence Parly.
 
#49
After some wild stabs in the dark, this figure of 100,000 seems to have settled down as the standard number used by Western politicians for how big it's going to be. But I haven't seen anywhere what it's based on... are they all just repeating what each other said, or is there some solid assessment behind the nice round number?
 
#50
After some wild stabs in the dark, this figure of 100,000 seems to have settled down as the standard number used by Western politicians for how big it's going to be. But I haven't seen anywhere what it's based on... are they all just repeating what each other said, or is there some solid assessment behind the nice round number?
I think you're right about the repeating Estonia, then NATO (60-100k) now Germany. I believe they're talking about the broader aspects e.g. principle Ex in Belarus and those involved in other parts outside Belarus such as civilian support, MPs, logs, other units, rotating through Ex areas etc etc

We'll find out in four days or more which will obviously be denied if it does exceed as it doesn't comply with the Vienna Accord: Vienna Document 2011 | OSCE
 
#52
#57
#58
#59
Zapad's goal is 'to frighten us'- Lithuanian president
I like the fact that the Lithuanian President won't be there during Ex Zapad 2017 and will be addressing the UN:
"Let's not get frightened, because this is what the goal of the Zapad exercise is: to frighten us, to break our will to defend ourselves so that we are paralyzed and can do nothing in our state," Grybauskaite said at a news conference when asked about her response to criticism from some politicians over the timing of the visit.

"The recommendations of all the relevant structures are that the level of security is unchanged, and (this is) an opportunity to go the United Nations and to address two hundred nations from its rostrum to draw attention to the problems of our region today when the whole world thinks only about conflicts with North Korea," she said, commenting on the aim of her visit.
A (not so) veiled hint:
"Aggressive actions against one's neighbors, wars and seizures of territories have no justification and will always be disgraceful and deplorable. I am going to say this to the whole world," she said.
 

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