Yemen

alib

LE
Well after the CIA's counterproductive drone war the Houthis backed by a lot of the ousted Salih's supporters have been reputably routing one of the most dangerous AQ affiliates in the region. DC and Riyadh are not best pleased, the latter has had a typically confused policy next door.

To start off on Middle East Week a Podcast Political Chaos in Yemen emphasizes how local a dispute this is. Very little Qom involvement just a lot of pissed of Fivers and a still rather capable deposed president who takes no prisoners.

And then on SST Yemen as exemplar.
 
Well after the CIA's counterproductive drone war the Houthis backed by a lot of the ousted Salih's supporters have been reputably routing one of the most dangerous AQ affiliates in the region. DC and Riyadh are not best pleased, the latter has had a typically confused policy next door.

To start off on Middle East Week a Podcast Political Chaos in Yemen emphasizes how local a dispute this is. Very little Qom involvement just a lot of pissed of Fivers and a still rather capable deposed president who takes no prisoners.

And then on SST Yemen as exemplar.
I recently asked if you were a Muslim. You indicated that you were an Ulster Prod. It is one thing to have an interest in world politics. In your case, it seems to be a singular and all-consuming interest in the crypto-fascism that is Islam and its client states

You are very odd..
 
Very little Qom involvement .
Laughed, I nearly got the beers in.
You are very odd..
It's odd that he should post this in the ME forum? There's a reason that we have so many different forums, if you're not interested in it ignore it.
 

westendboy

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I recently asked if you were a Muslim. You indicated that you were an Ulster Prod. It is one thing to have an interest in world politics. In your case, it seems to be a singular and all-consuming interest in the crypto-fascism that is Islam and its client states

You are very odd..
What he said.
 

alib

LE
Laughed, I nearly got the beers in.
...
Listen to the Podcast, I don't know anyone who knows Yemen who thinks Iran is actually doing much there. KSA types will sees Qom's hand everywhere of course, fact is they are busy elsewhere and the Fivers are not a priority.
 

alib

LE
I recently asked if you were a Muslim. You indicated that you were an Ulster Prod. It is one thing to have an interest in world politics. In your case, it seems to be a singular and all-consuming interest in the crypto-fascism that is Islam and its client states

You are very odd..
It's a hobby like your therapeutic whittling.
 
It's definitely an interesting period in a country which we don't get mainstream coverage of. I think there has been a recent Vice News video from Sanaa which is worth a watch.

There is an American academic called Gregory D Johnson who is on Twitter and runs or did run a blog called Waq al-Waq which is as good as gets for English Yemen coverage.
 

alib

LE
On TDB Yemen’s a Model All Right—For Disaster
...
In Yemen, focusing too narrowly on counter-terrorism objectives has enabled this recent shift in power. We cannot afford to make the same mistakes in the fight against ISIS.

In both conflicts, the long-term solution lies in a comprehensive response to the growing threat. Dismantling ISIS will only be possible with a multi-year strategy that, ultimately, supports and sustains development objectives not simply narrow counterterrorism objectives. Rather than fighting ISIS with airstrikes and ground troops, Congress, and our allies in the fight against ISIS, must look at longer-term goals that can provide the local population with viable alternatives to extremism.

The Yemen model isn’t working in Yemen. But not for the reasons that conservative Republicans might think. The lesson from Yemen is not more military intervention. The lesson we need to learn, to legislate and to implement is one of holistic interventions that address legitimate grievances and that support economic and development goals alongside the use of force. Whether in Yemen or in Iraq and Syria, this is the only way to tackle the long-term threat of terrorism.
CT in Yemen is the model Barry has cited for Syria. Mainly CIA drones and SF, KSA support, what could go wrong?

It was always a mess after unification in the 90s but the politics of the place went tits up after the Arab Spring. Our Bastard, Saleh fell in what was a similar succession crisis to that in Cairo. The Saudis, for once, tilted towards reform and recently lost their nerve as they are prone to do. Hadi the new guy was elected but always lacked Saleh's guile and base. Saleh's network in the military backed the Houthis and they've clobbered everyone including the local AQ affiliate AQ in the Arabian Peninsular and the related Ansar Al Sharia. AQAP includes Saudi elements very much focused on bring down the monarchy as well as blowing up civil aviation with well crafted if so far ineffectual bombs. Oh and there is also Al-Hirak Al Janoubi a southern secessionist movement.

The Houthis are rebellion of Shia Fivers, a minority in Yemen very distinct from the Twelvers familiar from Iraq and Iran. They do make very similar anti-Western noises. Their beef with the state includes long repression well supported by the KSA, always wary of Shia, and lately that Sana has been cultivating AQ in the country, this unfortunately has some basis. In turn Sana tends to habitually accuse them of being a tool of Qom without ever producing any evidence of anything but a dalliance.

Under Saleh, a Fiver himself and his replacement, DC actually conducted a CT campaign against AQAP based mostly on drone strikes. DC wasn't always happy with Saleh's enthusiasm for this venture which in hindsight may be because he knew his country well. There are other factors but the unfortunate effect of this CIA's campaign according to some analysts was to rapidly grow the popular base of AQAP amongst Yemen's Sunni tribes as it tended to kill their sons. Ansar Al Sharia would go on to seize territory from the government in 2011 and embarked on a vicious campaign against the Houthis.

We've seen a similar effects in the early JSOC campaign against AQI in al Anbar and worryingly from the point JaN, AQ Syria, was hit by US airstrikes in Syria. The Syrian strikes where reportedly triggered by concerns that AQAP was passing sophisticated bombing tech to JaN. Elements in Langley did warn that hitting JaN might backfire. The "moderate" Syrian revolt in the north they were running has since collapsed, mainly because JaN with growing popular support swung round and twatted our assets into Turkey.

A CT strategy that pretty much ignores the political effect on the host populations mood can end up growing the threat. Cracking on killing HVTs can create an awful lot of LVTs. The Saudis and therefore much of Foggy Bottom will be up the High Doe but in Yemen this effect may be mitigated to some extent as the outraged Houthis have steamrollered over AQAP's basing or we could just have a wider sectarian war this time with added Fivers, we'll see.
 
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AQAP's media wing, al-Malahem, released a video from their 'In the field' series showing an attack they conducted against Ghabr barracks in Hadramawt in October this year. Worth watching if you can get a copy.
 

DaManBugs

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I recently asked if you were a Muslim. You indicated that you were an Ulster Prod. It is one thing to have an interest in world politics. In your case, it seems to be a singular and all-consuming interest in the crypto-fascism that is Islam and its client states

You are very odd..
That's the way to do it! What's the point in being ignorant and bigoted if you can't show it, eh? Alib posts very interesting and informative information and always has a clear and concise point of view, with highly relevant stuff. I always come away from his posts with much more knowledge than I had before. If your don't like what he has to say, don't read his posts.

MsG

PS. And I say all that as an Irish Republican.
 
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That's the way to do it! What's the point in being ignorant and bigoted if you can't show it, eh? Alib posts very interesting and informative information and always has a clear and concise point of view, with highly relevant stuff. I always come away from his posts with much more knowledge than I had before. If your don't like what he has to say, don't read his posts.

MsG
But you are just as ignorant and bigoted in your posts elsewhere on arrse, so, pot calling kettle black arrse, eh?
 

DaManBugs

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But you are just as ignorant and bigoted in your posts elsewhere on arrse, so, pot calling kettle black arrse, eh?
Oh, the irony! Why don't you go and have another read of your opinion (in two posts) of the Irish on the Kiwi flag thread, and then get back to me about bigoted and ignorant.

MsG
 
Oh, the irony! Why don't you go and have another read of your opinion (in two posts) of the Irish on the Kiwi flag thread, and then get back to me about bigoted and ignorant.

MsG
But you are an arrogant, bigoted and xenophobic person and an arrant racist, based on your posts over the last many months, too many for me to bother counting. You consider it your right to come on arrse spouting your racist and bigoted propaganda and then burst into tears when someone points out the error of your ways. how typical that is of you and your disgusting sniveling kind.

So far, you haven't realised that you are tolerated on this site only for your extremely mild entertainment value.. Take the hint and STFU. You pathetic maundering wanker.
 

DaManBugs

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But you are an arrogant, bigoted and xenophobic person and an arrant racist, based on your posts over the last many months, too many for me to bother counting. You consider it your right to come on arrse spouting your racist and bigoted propaganda and then burst into tears when someone points out the error of your ways. how typical that is of you and your disgusting sniveling kind.

So far, you haven't realised that you are tolerated on this site only for your extremely mild entertainment value.. Take the hint and STFU. You pathetic maundering wanker.
You're very easily riled aren't you? Still, if it makes you feel better within yourself and your closed and selfish little world, why not? Anything else you'd like to get off your chest, "mucka"?:)

MsG
 
Thanks for crayoning over what was shaping up into a decent thread

Alib may have his quirks (breeding rates) but I find he posts some pretty decent stuff all told.
 
Listen to the Podcast, I don't know anyone who knows Yemen who thinks Iran is actually doing much there. KSA types will sees Qom's hand everywhere of course, fact is they are busy elsewhere and the Fivers are not a priority.
Missed this. Iran is active in Yemen, low key but active. They've been there since the revolution and KSA has always been less than happy about it.

http://jcpa.org/article/iran-sanaa-yemen/
 
Thanks for crayoning over what was shaping up into a decent thread

Alib may have his quirks (breeding rates) but I find he posts some pretty decent stuff all told.
Agree - can we keep the sniping to elsewhere please?
 

DaManBugs

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Agree - can we keep the sniping to elsewhere please?
I agree too. My apologies for allowing myself to be drawn into another senseless and childish tit-for-tat argument and diverting the thread.

MsG
 

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