Yemen and the tipping point for Western military intervention

#1
Ali Saleh's support from his Armed Forces seems to be fragmenting and the chances of a full on civil war in Yemen are increasing. Rumour is that Lloyds are about to reclassify the region from Suez to Mumbai as a war zone in anticipation of an explosion in pirate attacks. The International Community seems wholly unprepared to deal with such a threat to world trade, aside from any of the further unforeseen events which are almost certainly in the post - take your pick from the entire GCC, Algeria, Morocco, Sudan, Eritrea, Pakistan??!

...which made me think...

When will the ability of the West to shape events in an increasing number of strategically important theatres be lost and what are the likely implications of that? When it becomes clear that the West has exhausted its capacity to bring force to bear when and where it chooses, what other actors and agendas are likely to appear?

If, for reasons of national economic interest, we have to proiritse where and when we choose to direct our meagre expeditionary capability, at what point does Afghanistan become totally unjustifiable?
 
#2
Suprised China haven't cottoned on to all this and supported through th UN sending their troops there, what better way for the new superpower to "Power Project" and take the reigns as world policeman & Influence Middle East politics?
 
#4
If we're going to deal with pirates on a large scale, why not release a few of the those big wooden boats we have around the country, run up the sails, arm them with some cannons and kick the **** right out of blackbeard and co.

On another side, has anyone actually thought about secretly joining the pirates, we could use the money after the depression of the next budget.
 
#6
Surely nothing can happen this decade? The Prime Minister said so....
 
#7
Surely nothing can happen this decade? The Prime Minister said so....
Quite. I'm sat in a relatively benign country in the middle of this mess and there is trouble brewing in every direction you'd care to point. It's potentially far more than the West can deal with but the developing events also stand to affect vital Western interests. Bluntly, what capability we have is spread far to thinly and being squandered on efforts that are not vital to the UK. Maybe Whitehall is still in denial about the fundamental challenges to the ME status quo, but given the limited resources available UKPlc needs to be thinking hard now about where and how we should be ready to commit them. That lightbulb doesn't seem to have gone off yet, but hosing what little we have into the Afghan desert is an act of madness, imho. We should be getting the feck out of there ASAP and deciding what we can do to protect our interests in the Gulf.
 
#8
If AQAP can link up with Al Shabaab in Somalia, the world situation will change quite significantly.
 
#9
It certainly will. When the Yemeni aquifers run dry in a couple of years, a nations worth of trembling cold turkey Khat addicts will be paddling in the other direction across to Somalia. -Cos the Saudis sure as hell won't want them in their country. Al Shabab don't know what's coming their way yet.
Yemen's water crisis eclipses al Qaeda threat | Reuters
 
#13
When will the ability of the West to shape events in an increasing number of strategically important theatres be lost?
Around Feb-March 2011...
 
#14
A nice outing for the most useless military organisation on the face of the planet - the Royal Saudi Army. This is a vital Saudi interest and they'll find a way of defending it.

Apropos nothing, are any of the folk on here in Oman, by any chance? Wouldn't be surprised to see some exercise activity in Dhofar.
 
#16
Alqaeda will take over very soon, all they got to do is, allow America companies to operate there and then its all gravy just as America did with the Taliban in regards to the pipeline to turkmenistan.

You wait and see, Awlaki will be president of the Islamic state of Yemen, and as usual Americans would do one or find a reason to attack and occupy.
 
#17
Interested to hear that - care to expand, old boy?
Oh, you know, just sort of musing on the propinquity of South Yemen to Oman and thinking back to times past, nothing more sinister than that. Reflecting on the distinct lack of tolerance the Sultan has for Islamist nutters, that kind of thing...
 
#18
Interested to hear that - care to expand, old boy?
Back in the late '60s/early '70s Oman fought a protracted war with insurgents from what was South Yemen (the old Aden Protectorate). The Brits made a major contribution to winning that war - seconded, contract and Them.

The most well known incident was at Mirbat, near Salalah in the south, when a few of Them held out against about 300 Adoo (spelling? - the name given to the insurgents). By all accounts at least one of Them should have got a VC; if I recall correctly it was a Fijian who was KIA.

PS.

I think the Adoo were descendants of PFLOAG (Popular Front for the Liberation of Oman and the Arabian Gulf) and PFLOSY (Popular Front for the Liberation of Oman and South Yemen). They featured during the closing years of our rule in Aden.

Don't you just love the acronyms!
 
#19
If any ****** wants to take over Yemen,good luck I'll even contribute to the air fare.

Sounds like a job for St Tony of Teflon,please god,please god,please................ 8)
 
#20
It certainly will. When the Yemeni aquifers run dry in a couple of years, a nations worth of trembling cold turkey Khat addicts will be paddling in the other direction across to Somalia. -Cos the Saudis sure as hell won't want them in their country. Al Shabab don't know what's coming their way yet.
Yemen's water crisis eclipses al Qaeda threat | Reuters
Correct.

Ibn Saud, the founder of Saudi Arabia, is reputed to have said on his death bed "Beware of the Yemeni".
 

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