Ali Saleh's support from his Armed Forces seems to be fragmenting and the chances of a full on civil war in Yemen are increasing. Rumour is that Lloyds are about to reclassify the region from Suez to Mumbai as a war zone in anticipation of an explosion in pirate attacks. The International Community seems wholly unprepared to deal with such a threat to world trade, aside from any of the further unforeseen events which are almost certainly in the post - take your pick from the entire GCC, Algeria, Morocco, Sudan, Eritrea, Pakistan??! ...which made me think... When will the ability of the West to shape events in an increasing number of strategically important theatres be lost and what are the likely implications of that? When it becomes clear that the West has exhausted its capacity to bring force to bear when and where it chooses, what other actors and agendas are likely to appear? If, for reasons of national economic interest, we have to proiritse where and when we choose to direct our meagre expeditionary capability, at what point does Afghanistan become totally unjustifiable?