Yemen and the tipping point for Western military intervention

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Strait_Jacket, Mar 22, 2011.

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  1. Ali Saleh's support from his Armed Forces seems to be fragmenting and the chances of a full on civil war in Yemen are increasing. Rumour is that Lloyds are about to reclassify the region from Suez to Mumbai as a war zone in anticipation of an explosion in pirate attacks. The International Community seems wholly unprepared to deal with such a threat to world trade, aside from any of the further unforeseen events which are almost certainly in the post - take your pick from the entire GCC, Algeria, Morocco, Sudan, Eritrea, Pakistan??!

    ...which made me think...

    When will the ability of the West to shape events in an increasing number of strategically important theatres be lost and what are the likely implications of that? When it becomes clear that the West has exhausted its capacity to bring force to bear when and where it chooses, what other actors and agendas are likely to appear?

    If, for reasons of national economic interest, we have to proiritse where and when we choose to direct our meagre expeditionary capability, at what point does Afghanistan become totally unjustifiable?
  2. Suprised China haven't cottoned on to all this and supported through th UN sending their troops there, what better way for the new superpower to "Power Project" and take the reigns as world policeman & Influence Middle East politics?
  3. If you like Afghanistan you'll ****ing love Yemen.


    That is all.........
    • Like Like x 5
  4. If we're going to deal with pirates on a large scale, why not release a few of the those big wooden boats we have around the country, run up the sails, arm them with some cannons and kick the **** right out of blackbeard and co.

    On another side, has anyone actually thought about secretly joining the pirates, we could use the money after the depression of the next budget.
  5. and there will be lots of us out there looking for work post SDSR...
  6. Surely nothing can happen this decade? The Prime Minister said so....
  7. Quite. I'm sat in a relatively benign country in the middle of this mess and there is trouble brewing in every direction you'd care to point. It's potentially far more than the West can deal with but the developing events also stand to affect vital Western interests. Bluntly, what capability we have is spread far to thinly and being squandered on efforts that are not vital to the UK. Maybe Whitehall is still in denial about the fundamental challenges to the ME status quo, but given the limited resources available UKPlc needs to be thinking hard now about where and how we should be ready to commit them. That lightbulb doesn't seem to have gone off yet, but hosing what little we have into the Afghan desert is an act of madness, imho. We should be getting the feck out of there ASAP and deciding what we can do to protect our interests in the Gulf.
  8. If AQAP can link up with Al Shabaab in Somalia, the world situation will change quite significantly.
  9. It certainly will. When the Yemeni aquifers run dry in a couple of years, a nations worth of trembling cold turkey Khat addicts will be paddling in the other direction across to Somalia. -Cos the Saudis sure as hell won't want them in their country. Al Shabab don't know what's coming their way yet.
    Yemen's water crisis eclipses al Qaeda threat | Reuters
  10. The US didn't send their aircraft carrier (USS Enterprise) to Libya.
  11. What's the significance of that?
  12. Around Feb-March 2011...
  13. A nice outing for the most useless military organisation on the face of the planet - the Royal Saudi Army. This is a vital Saudi interest and they'll find a way of defending it.

    Apropos nothing, are any of the folk on here in Oman, by any chance? Wouldn't be surprised to see some exercise activity in Dhofar.
  14. Interested to hear that - care to expand, old boy?