WuFlu - Anti Vaxxers

Will you get the Vaccine?


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Old-Salt
From March 20 to Nov 20, neatly missing the second wave.

Increased testing resulting in more, less severe, cases being identified isn’t surprising.
What is quite apparent is that case rate for similar levels of testing is a good indicator of if infections are growing or falling. Given the rate of exponential growth you need early warning as soon as possible.
Above and beyond that, hospitalisations and deaths tend to lag a bit behind cases and are what really trouble the health service. If you wait for these to rise then the peak is much more severe. We saw with two lockdowns the rapid effect of the lockdown on the case rate then hospitalisations then deaths.

So yes, the statistics aren’t the best, but waiting for the best ones can be pretty dangerous.
I wonder what the authors would say with a year’s more data to play with?
The document was published in Nov 20, and the second wave is addressed in section 5:

"Similarly, the scale of the ‘second wave’ has been continually exaggerated by focusing on increased ‘cases’ without considering the simple causal explanation of massively increased testing. When this is done – as shown in the plots of Figure 2 –the trends for cases, hospitalizations and deaths look far less worrying than those presented at UK Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK using exactly the same data."
 
The document was published in Nov 20, and the second wave is addressed in section 5:

"Similarly, the scale of the ‘second wave’ has been continually exaggerated by focusing on increased ‘cases’ without considering the simple causal explanation of massively increased testing. When this is done – as shown in the plots of Figure 2 –the trends for cases, hospitalizations and deaths look far less worrying than those presented at UK Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK using exactly the same data."
The second wave peaked in January 21.

ETA: with a greater number of deaths associated than the first wave, albeit a lower excess mortality.
 

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Old-Salt
The second wave peaked in January 21.

ETA: with a greater number of deaths associated than the first wave, albeit a lower excess mortality.
Ok, got you. Regardless the paper was published in Nov 20- before the second wave hit its peak. Are you suggesting the authors rushed the paper to publish, anticipating a peak? It's possible I guess.
 
Are you suggesting the authors rushed the paper to publish, anticipating a peak? It's possible I guess.
No. I’m sure that they published the paper in good faith. My take is that:
1) While they have valid points regarding the quality of the statistics it’s my opinion that the lesser quality statistics still have value because they are quick.
2) Subsequent events suggests that the dangers of the case growth were real.

I would be interested if the authors have reviewed their piece more recently, as the paper quoted is obsolescent.
 
Is this where Boris adds more rules to the Covid Game?


Well, I'm not playing anymore.

I advise the rest of you don't either.

The Covid Game ends - when enough of us stop playing the Covid Game.

Get Jabbed, and take your chances.
 

GDog

Old-Salt
Is this where Boris adds more rules to the Covid Game?


Well, I'm not playing anymore.

I advise the rest of you don't either.

The Covid Game ends - when enough of us stop playing the Covid Game.

Get Jabbed, and take your chances.
"Play the Game"

They can **** off
 
"Play the Game"

They can **** off

Likewise - I played it before, followed all the rules at first, but the game became boring when I realised that most others weren't playing by the rules, including the GamesMasters and the fear of losing the game was no longer death - just a mild flu.

I lost the game when I caught Covid at a time when I was playing by the rules and before any vaccines - and despite my initial fears - I didn't even have to take a day off work (I was working remotely) it was so mild.

I'm Jabbed upto the max, I have no interest in playing this game anymore.

So long as the pubs are kept open - I will be in them, and no masks shall ever be worn again by this call-sign.
 
Likewise - I played it before, followed all the rules at first, but the game became boring when I realised that most others weren't playing by the rules, including the GamesMasters and the fear of losing the game was no longer death - just a mild flu.

I lost the game when I caught Covid at a time when I was playing by the rules and before any vaccines - and despite my initial fears - I didn't even have to take a day off work (I was working remotely) it was so mild.

I'm Jabbed upto the max, I have no interest in playing this game anymore.

So long as the pubs are kept open - I will be in them, and no masks shall ever be worn again by this call-sign.
So back in July when you said you weren’t going to wear a comfort blanket on your face that was playing by the rules was it?

Post in thread 'Mask or No Mask?'
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/mask-or-no-mask.305555/post-10886731
 

Iqbal Achieve

Old-Salt
I was about to ask what sort of a person trawls through messages to cherry pick one particular comment...then I realised it was you, and all was answered.
Please show examples of any such behaviour on my part previously - and asking for citations on my part doesn’t count.

If you are going to slur my character you had better be able to do so with truth on your side.

(And it took me about 15 seconds - it took me longer to tap out this reply to you).
 
It's called a conflict of interest.

Now do **** off.
Heres that Tenner I owe you before I go.

1638993719319.jpeg
 
I was about to ask what sort of a person trawls through messages to cherry pick one particular comment...then I realised it was you, and all was answered.
Have you heard of "The search function"?
 

Snowy.

On ROPS
On ROPs
How does this virus know the differnce between 500 people shopping in a supermarket and 500 people in a nightclub?..
 

Fang_Farrier

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
How does this virus know the differnce between 500 people shopping in a supermarket and 500 people in a nightclub?..

One lot are on a 20x20 dance floor, jumping about, shouting and breathing harder through exertion.

The other are walking sedately around a large area, separated by high stacks of foodstuffs and other goods.
 
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