World War 3 - How, When, Where?

Discussion in 'The Intelligence Cell' started by Your_Mums_Pal, Jul 3, 2011.

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  1. Eh, was reading both the financial apocolypse and water wars threads over in current affairs earlier. Just got my mind turning and twisting.

    Given todays global political situation, the global fincancial and resource situation and the rise of terrorism, do we see world war three as a feasible scenario? Is it likely that instability in certain regions of political distrust could result in yet another international barmy?

    If so, how exactly would such a thing unfold?

    Times are different now with cyber-warfare a very important aspect of intelligence gathering and we all seem to be a bit skint apart from those in the far East. Nuclear weaponry doesn't seem to be all too likely a use but is it unwise to consider that nations wouldn't resort to using nuclear arms in order to protect themselves?

    So who's our most likely proponents?

    The USA seems to be slowly dying out as a superpower and China is militarising itself as quickly as it can whilst also growing as a financial and productive super-power. Tensions in the Middle East and North Africa are high amongst Muslims and young Arabs as they demand certain political freedoms and strive to improve on their situations. Then you've got Western interests in Gulf oil thrown in there too.

    Any thoughts? Or can nobody be arsed to consider it?
  2. It will start in a hotel, when the police come to question whoever it was grassed that murdered bitch up. Why would anyone give information about her to her abusive ex-husband?.

    Years of unemployment and vilification will follow.

    Nuclear winter.

    The end.
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  3. Haha, I knew this was coming...aye, okay, this post was badly timed.

    The ****** turned up before I could send this prompting me diving into the NAAFI bar in another window :p
  4. Grumblegrunt

    Grumblegrunt LE Book Reviewer

    well the saudis have said they will get a nuke program going if iran manages to build one. my guess is the israelis will sell/build them in exchange for oil and influence.

    probably more chance of a china india exchange than an india pakistan one allthough china russia isnt off the books.
  5. Have you not noticed the increase in price of corned beef and spam? Just keep buying.
  6. Grumblegrunt

    Grumblegrunt LE Book Reviewer

    thats mainly down to food speculators when they fcuked up property and oil they went for food.
  7. Yeah you should see my cellar/bunker
  8. We have ........ "it puts on the lotion!"
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  9. My money is on Greece voting to not pay back any of the money it has borrowed and Germany and France rolling in to repo any thing not nailed down.
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  10. US of A -v- Europe = who.

    When = when European Soviet Union ditches all pretence of being a democratic organisation.

    Outcome = do I really have to spell this out?
  11. The Protagonists will be the Superpowers, piling into whichever side of the resource war suits their Political aims best.

    The resource will probably be oil although you can get fair odds on Paddypower for water. It may not have to go Nuclear as Starvation through drought will probably kill as many as are needed. On the Bright side, given that Britain is wetter than a fishes wet bits we'll probably be quite rich before we are invaded.

    If its Oil though we are as fucked as the rest of them.
  12. world war
    Noun: A war involving many large nations in all different parts of the world.
    If you ask me, we're in world war 3 now. It'll be WW4 that goes to instant sunshine
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  13. Wouldnt say that new fields being found off the Shetlands and a massive shale gas field found off Blackpool plus as we get around 70% of all of Europes wind and still got massive coal reserves and tidal power I think unless we had a drought we would see it off quite nicely and let all the sudi's etc roll back to the stone age. We can then roll in and start a 2nd Empire from the places we might actually want and has some benefit to us.
    • Like Like x 1
  14. Wordsmith

    Wordsmith LE Book Reviewer

    Herein follows about 10 feet of Wordsmith's ramblings....

    The main causes of a world war I think are as follows:

    (1) Resources - a nation (or a group of nations) makes a grab for resources they don't have and a neighbour does. This could be land, energy, food, etc. As the world's population rapidly outgrows its resources, I think this is the most likely trigger for WW3. A classic examples of a war for resources is WW2 - where Hitler grabbed for what he felt Germany didn't have - land and resources to the east.

    The purest example of a resource war might well be the first Anglo Dutch war of 1652 -1654. It was fought purely over who controlled sea borne trade - England or Holland.

    (2) Pre-emptive strike - a nation thinks it it going to be attacked and gets its blow in first. The 6 Day War between Israel and the Arab nations in 1967 is a good example of this. The Israeli's saw the Arab nations massing forces on her borders and struck first. The pre-emptive strike was also a reason why the momentum towards WW1 could not be stopped - once countries started to mobilise, they feared it they stopped to give peace talks a chance, the other side would gain enough of an advantage that they'd launch an attack anyway.

    (3) Religion or Ideology - war because you don't like the other sides religion or politics. The varying crusades are classic examples of Religious wars, while the Allied intervention in the Baltic in 1919/20 to try and crush the Bolshevik revolution is an example of an ideological intervention.

    (4) Distraction from Internal Problems - nations go to war because they are teetering on the brink of revolution internally and need an external distraction. I'm going to cite Argentina's invasion of the Falklands as an example of this.

    As well as a cause, the nation starting the war must generally feel they can win easily. Iraq attached Iran in 1980 because it felt Iran was crumbling internally and would collapse when Iraq invaded. Eight years later it ended in stalemate. Argentina thought the UK would not respond to the Falkland Island grab - lost, and its military government fell soon after.

    Where is it most likely going to start?

    My money is on it being over resources and with China involved. Potential flashpoints include:

    - In the Yellow sea. We have a lot of nations claiming resources or islands in the Yellow Sea. I can see China claiming oil or islands and a shooting war develops and escalates.

    - In Africa - as China and the West squabble over how to divvy up Africa's resources. This would start as a proxy war, with the main parties increasingly sucked it. The conflict would increasingly expand outside of Africa.

    - China/Russia border - the Russian side of this border is rich in resources and sparsely populated. We could see a land grab and Russia responding.

    A secondary trigger could be 'distraction from internal problems' - if China really starts to suffer from political dissent, a good old fashioned war might make ordinary Chinese focus on the external enemy rather than internal ones. And if you're going to hit Russia - 'pre-emptive strike' is a good option as well.

  15. seaweed

    seaweed LE Book Reviewer

    South China Sea. Local actions, allies called in to help, mission creep, spreads slowly outwards from there as Pak sides with China which drags in India etc. Enjoy.