World Depression and its short term impact.

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by old_bloke, Mar 2, 2009.

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  1. To anybody with a brain cell or two , we all know its started but those in power are doing their best "spinning like tops" to hid the fact from the sheep that elected them.

    Just how many years will our kids, kids be paying back these non-existent loans- with the money being borrowed from, well who? Who has this X Zillion cash the UK, USA, Germany, France, China, Japan need to borrow to pay for their own corporate and personal greed ?

    My three predictions are:

    1. USA will do the same as in the 1930 depression, isolationism and only buying American, world markets reduce even further with China getting a panning and going down big time. America starts inshore drilling for fuel , prices rise through the roof and class (money and race) riots start .

    2. UK – Christ knows, the next weeks will show when the BOE drops the base rate to 0 % and then starts to print more money – with nothing in the coffers to back it up! Zimbo anyone. Employment or lack of (real not the Govs fudged numbers) triples and UK PLC is faced with riots in the streets.

    3. China – (see number 1) has to do something to bring itself and the population out of its stupor – Ah the old patriotic “Start a War” theme. Taiwan gets a few warnings over the smaller disputed islands, a few PLA forces “over fly” and 1 gets shot down. Bobs your uncle.

    China invades and the USA (we promise to protect you) can't.
  2. I dont like Mondays either ..............
  3. Haven't NR already paid back 2/3 of the money?
  4. Wow that would make a great song title. :lol:
  5. Ord_Sgt

    Ord_Sgt RIP

    You're not an optimist then OB? ;)

    In real terms theres more money in the world economy than there ever was. These fantastic loans are really just numbers on a piece of paper. Theres currently a crisis of confidence which will pass - sooner if we could have a general election and get rid of this current bunch of losers.

    Welcome to a new week :D
  6. What sort of timescale are you thinking of in your predictions?

    The problem I see the US having in retreating into protectionism is that it was largely self-sufficient in terms of raw materials and industrial capacity in the 1930s: it's not now and it'll take them a while to build their industrial base back up to those levels. In the long term, the bloke in the street this might think this a good thing but in the short and medium, who'd going to pay a price for goods and services which will sustain an American wage-level?

    The other problem with US retreating into protectionism, is that to get the raw materials they need, particularly minerals, they'll need to keep buying from overseas. Selective protectionism is horribly difficult to police and the backlash won't be particularly nice when countries realise they can make better use of their primary commodities themselves or more money selling them to someone else than they can selling them to a country that won't allow them to sell anything else.

    The UK's up shit-creek, though. We're going to have to radically re-think our approach to the economy and to how we use our resources (energy, raw materials, finished goods and above all people).

    As for PRC, they're fairly well placed to ride it out in the short to medium term (Bi-weekly update); the long term depends on a whole bundle of things, not least how well CCP can get a grip of domestic corruption and whether they can maintain the growth in domestic consumption. If I could make sure predictions on issues of this magnitude, I'd be having one of my harem post this from my own private tropical island, but I'd certainly not write them off.

    Taiwan's not such a heated issue as to cause a war. Relations are unbelievably better than they were in Chen's day; direct flights have opened; the Cross-Straits forum is making good progress - I can't see the PRC getting its people's only children killed just out of haste for something they stand a reasonable chance of getting with a bit of patience anyway.

    Edited to add: I knew I'd find it somewhere. They can't keep the world out of recession on their own, but they could just maybe help us stave off the worst of it. A bit of mutual dependancy wouldn't be a bad thing IMO.