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Will Egypt close the Suez Canal?

#3
If Blair was in power we'd be tooling up for another para drop on the joint.

With the assistance of a dodgy report and a dead scientist or two allegedly.....
 
#6
Egypt is in a financial shite state....among other shite goings on there, they get good revenue from the canal, so I can't se that happening.....!
 
#7
It was closed for at least a decade after the 6 day war, we survived it. An inconvenience yes, but not a death blow.
^My mistake, it was only 8 years.
...and, at the request of the Egyptian government,was cleared mostly by RN MCM forces during Operation RHEOSTAT:

Wikipedia said:
...The British Royal Navy initiated Operation Rheostat and Task Group 65.2 provided the minehunters HMS Maxton, HMS Bossington and HMS Wilton, and HMS Abdiel, a practice minelayer/MCMV support ship that spent two periods of 6 months in 1974 and in 1975 based at Ismailia. When the Canal Clearance Operations were completed, the Suez Canal and its lakes were considered 99% clear of mines. The Canal was then reopened by Egyptian President Anwar Sadat aboard an Egyptian destroyer which led the first convoy Northbound to Port Said in 1975...
 
S

syledis

Guest
#8
****ing hate going through the canal, the hassle, the sleazy pilots bringing entire family onboard, every 5 minutes some "official" trying to get a carton of cigarettes off us, and the waiting at each end.
 
#10
they are sailing over the top now and doing the northwest passage so little lost, the somali pirates might be a little annoyed though
Got a source for that? Have heard of several exploratory convoy type runs doing it but didn't know ships were actually using it as a recognised commercial route yet.
 
#11
Got a source for that? Have heard of several exploratory convoy type runs doing it but didn't know ships were actually using it as a recognised commercial route yet.
Well, the PRC-flagged Yong Sheng has set sail on that route from Dalian to Rotterdam. It's interesting to note that the PRC has been developing deep-water ports in Liaoning for over a decade, particularly at Dalian and Yingkou.

If the canal is closed, oil exports from the middle east to Europe and the Americas might take a hit but imports from the far east aren't likely to be hit. On the plus side, that might encourage us to become less reliant on ME oil and could ultimately even drop the whole mess firmly in someone else's lap.
 
#12
If the Suez does close there would be a large financial impact for every one. The cost of freight would face a vast increase impacting every part of our daily lives. On the flip side though any one that owns ships would make a huge amount of money
 
#13
If the Suez does close there would be a large financial impact for every one. The cost of freight would face a vast increase impacting every part of our daily lives. On the flip side though any one that owns ships would make a huge amount of money
That would depend on where the freight is coming from and the viability of alternate routes. The ME doesn't export much beyond oil that can't readily be sourced elsewhere and there are ways to avoid the canal with only a relatively small initial outlay in switching.
 
#15
That would depend on where the freight is coming from and the viability of alternate routes. The ME doesn't export much beyond oil that can't readily be sourced elsewhere and there are ways to avoid the canal with only a relatively small initial outlay in switching.
Without wanting to get boring it is not the middle east exports that would be the issue, it’s the fact that everything from the far east to the west would have to go via the cape so that is pretty much everything. Just look at most things in your house that are made in the far east.

With a simple calculation with today’s oil prices and depressed freight rates for ship owners the extra cost per MT of cargo for shanghai to eu would be between $10 to $12 that is not too bad however
There would be an increase in transit time by over 25 days on a round trip.

This would create a demand for vessels, drawing ships from other markets as every industry clamours to insure that there deadlines for deliverers are met, creating a perfect storm for ship owners that would push rates to perhaps the highs of the 2007 market this would in effect at least triple all freight costs

This would cripple almost all families with the extra costs
 
#17
they are sailing over the top now and doing the northwest passage so little lost, the somali pirates might be a little annoyed though
But it would be a boon for the West African pirates if they were forced to go via the southern tip of Africa during winter months

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#18
Without wanting to get boring it is not the middle east exports that would be the issue, it’s the fact that everything from the far east to the west would have to go via the cape so that is pretty much everything. Just look at most things in your house that are made in the far east.
As I pointed out above, there are alternate routes from the Far East that have been getting prepped for over a decade now. The only thing that's stopped them being used more is that most freighters departing PRC ports are foreign-owned and the firms concerned have stuck conservatively with the route they know and can predict. Closing that route would make the alternates look much more attractive.
 
#19
Got a source for that? Have heard of several exploratory convoy type runs doing it but didn't know ships were actually using it as a recognised commercial route yet.
It's the Northeast Passage (Russia) that's being used, not the Northwest Passage (Canada). Geography and ice conditions favour the northeast route across the top of Russia at this time. It's a new commercial route, but it's seasonal only though. The Soviets used to operate local supply routes between Siberian ports and some east-west shipping on a limited scale, but the longer shipping season in recent years has now made this route commercially viable for the far east to Europe traffic as it's quicker and saves fuel costs. The limitation as I said is that it's seasonal rather than year-round.

Despite what some people will tell you, there have been dramatic changes in climate in the arctic over the past few decades. Shippers with long experience operating in the Canadian arctic have said the changes in climate and ice conditions there have been absolutely staggering from their perspective. A few weeks ago the temperature on the shores of the Arctic Ocean (at the mouth of the Coppermine River) was 29C. Temperatures like that aren't every day, but they are a lot more common than they used to be.

Here's a story in the CBC from a couple of days ago. It's more of a moan about how 'we are falling behind the Russians in competition for business' sort of story, but I'll quote the relevant facts below:
Canada falling behind in Arctic shipping - North - CBC News

A total of 421 commercial vessels have applied for permission this season to use Russia's Northern Sea Route, which cuts days off the shipping time between Asia and northern Europe.
"The Russians are building their Arctic gateway right now," said Byers. "A 10-fold increase in shipping volumes over four years speaks volumes to how prescient the Russian government has been."
The above two items as indicative of what is going on now in the arctic. I wouldn't bother reading the rest unless you understand enough about Canadian politics and geography to put it in context as there's a lot of important background that isn't covered there. The basic summary though is that arctic commercial shipping is a rapidly growing reality today.

At one time the Northwest Passage was only for the intrepid explorer, but recreational boaters are doing it regularly today in sailboats.
 
#20
Well, the PRC-flagged Yong Sheng has set sail on that route from Dalian to Rotterdam. It's interesting to note that the PRC has been developing deep-water ports in Liaoning for over a decade, particularly at Dalian and Yingkou.
As I mentioned on another thread, China has now said they want to join one of the talking shops that are meant for Arctic countries (Canada, Russia, Norway, US, Denmark, etc.) to discuss Arctic issues and frame regulations. The Chinese have declared they have an interest in the Arctic Ocean as their ships are traversing it on the route to Europe (among other reasons) and they want a say in what goes on there.

If the canal is closed, oil exports from the middle east to Europe and the Americas might take a hit but imports from the far east aren't likely to be hit. On the plus side, that might encourage us to become less reliant on ME oil and could ultimately even drop the whole mess firmly in someone else's lap.
Shipping is such a small proportion of the cost of things like laptops or mobile phones that I can't see shipping costs having much effect on the price in the shops. Right now some electronics manufacturers are shipping goods by rail across Russia as it's quicker, which means they save money by having fewer goods in the supply pipeline (i.e. less time between coming off the assembly line and getting sold to customers) and there is less risk of finding yourself with inventory problems if the market changes unexpectedly (either Asus or Acer had their profits absolutely hammered by this not long ago).

Bulk goods like oil, liquified natural gas, coal, wheat, and minerals are the things most likely to be affected significantly.
 

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