Will Brown go for it?

A politics prof puts the main arguments.

http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article3024696.ece

Will Brown go for it? What's the ARSSE view? I think he will. After all the spin, the dangers of not calling one are too great.

 

Yes. Because he said he wouldn't and as all politicians are liars, he therefore will.

 

My tuppence'orth: he'll either go for it now, or he'll wait until May 2010, which is, I think (but I'm open to correction) the latest he can call an election. I think there are going to be quite a few chickens coming home to roost over the next year or so - especially on the economy - and he'll either want to get the election out of the way before they start to kick in, or hope he can turn things around over the next 2 1/2 years and get the credit for doing so. My money's on November. No evidence for this, just gut feeling.

Edited for Fat Finger Syndrome

 

Yes because next year the economy begins its downwards spiral, but even in November he's probably going to get a hung Parliment, which will be fun to watch.

 

It wont happen. He will try to hang on as long as possible before he gets chucked out.

 

He's a coward... and power hungry, he'll bottle it... He'll probably have a later election by which time he'll have changed the law to ensure all migrants get to vote for him.

 

My bold. I thought Liarbour policy since they got in had been aimed at doing that anyway.

 

I hope not. There is a financial crisis coming and the international situation is likely to get even worse, there are likely to be strikes by the civil service and post office workers and heaps of other stuff is likely to go pete tong.

Lets hope he waits til it has all gone to the dogs before the tories take control or they will find themselves picking up a bugg*red country and not being able to turn it around quick enough thus letting labour in for another 10-15 years.

or words to that effect

 

I reckon he will. The polls are still (remarkably) looking good for him, people still (even more remarkably) see him as a new boy in the job, the Unions haven't begun seriously kicking off although the touch-paper's looking a bit charred. The longer he leaves it the more time for things to go pear-shaped.

Of course, in my more 'aluminium' moments I've wondered if it's not just an immense spoiling campaign to get the Tories to spunk their war-chest over a fake pair of tits. Labour is pretty much broke and the Tories comparatively flush - he is the money-man, after all.

 

That hadn't occurred to me: things may get so bad Brown may want to Tories to win so they get the blame. I hear mutterings that c. 25% of British mortgages are sub-prime, so there could be a blood-letting. Plus if Britiain follows Bush into Iran...

I wonder how pi$$ed off the voters will be to have to go through an election campaign when there's no constitutional need? I'm not old enough to really remember the last time it happened (1978, or Wilson in 1970?) But at least if he does go he'll get credit for seeking a personal mandate, unlike Major when he replaced Thatcher.

 

No. He will bottle out.

If the Postal workers are on strike will lose all those entirely genuine and wholly unrigged postal votes in key Labour marginals

 

A counter-argument to that is it's hurt Brown to have encouraged the current election fever because it united the Tories at their conference. They're split from top to bottom over Cameron - the blue rinse, golf club brigade loath him for being soft on pooftas etc - so the chances of a seaside infighting melt-down were high, until an election was on the cards. One thing the Brits really hate is a political party ripping itself apart with in-fighting. Or, rather, there’s a national belly-laugh and only the rump votes for them…

 

This made me giggle slightly. Firstly, I don't think the US would stand for a major invasion of Iran anytime soon. Secondly, it's pretty much impossible for Britain to carry out an invasion due to how stretched the forces are. The Politicians don't care all that much about how stretched the British forces are, but they're aware they can't push it much further.

To answer your question, No, Broon will not call an election. There's no guarantee he will win it, and technically it would only be for a personal mandate to rule. Remember, people, that you vote for the party, not the man (apparently) and, as such, Labour as a whole still has 2.5 years left to serve, whether Broon or Mr Blobby are in charge of said party.

 

Fair enough. But there are various ways to 'follow' the US without sending British troops onto Iranian soil: allowing use of air bases in Britain; border patrol work in S. Iraq following a US/Israeli air strike; freezing bank accounts; interning Iranians in Britain; joining the US in vetoing UN resolutions etc etc. If the US act over Iran Brown has lots of choices, same as Harold Wilson had when he dug his heals in and refused to support the US in Vietnam.

 

He'll hold an election as the momentum is that strong now for a poll i don't think he'll be able to stop it.
I do think that it will be a serious mistake.Polls in the winter are not popular with politicians as getting voters out will be hard in the winter,plus with the CWU on strike and no end in sight,the Postal votes will be pretty hard to account for.
My prediction is below 50% turnout and a hung Parliament with Labour dependant on the Lib Dems for a majority.