Why The Elections Will Succeed

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by tomahawk6, Jan 20, 2005.

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  1. Not just their first free vote in memory, but their first free vote ever.

    In my view, even if only 10% actually vote, then that is still a democratic mandate. Everyone has the opportunity to vote (albeit with a watchful eye out for suspiciously 'plump' strangers) and that is what counts.
  2. Actually, by Jan 2004, all but one of the municipal councils in Dhi Qar province had been democratically elected and the local people were very enthusiastic about the whole process. We would be having far fewer problems at the moment if we had shown up in Iraq in March 2003 with a workable timetable for democratic elections across the board, rather than idle promises.
  3. How can 10% voting actually give a democratic mandate?

    Red Team are going to try and make the streets swim with blood.

    It is not just about disenfranchised Sunnis. It's about Agents provocateur trying to bring a stop to the Coalition initative in Iraq. They are going to hit polling stations, polling queues, returning officers, ballot paper transport , in short, everything they can do to disrupt the process, and further call the result into doubt.

    Iraq is heading for civil war.

    I made the analogy about the 2000 US election. If America was as lawless at the time, as Iraq now is, people would have been settling their grievances with guns.

    Expect rioting when the results come in, and the odd district or two to go up in flames , because their man didn't get in.

    I will be very happy to see long lines of Iraqis exercising their new found democratic rights, but I fear it will be a bloody process.
  4. I am pretty positive about the chances for democracy in Iraq. There is a very steep learning curve. It takes years for democracy to take hold and flourish. There will be successes and setbacks. The Iraqi police and service members who have been killed are martyr's for democracy.

    This election is possible because of the US, UK , Australian and Polish [GROM] troops that defeated Saddam's forces. The majority of the Iraqi people appreciate the coalition and are grateful for the sacrifices that have been made on their behalf.
  5. Im pretty sure that the sh1t will hit the fan in the near term as PTP predicts, but as with all conflicts it will all die down gradually over the next few years. As people become used to democracy, they will grow used to it and begin to distance themselves from the insurgents etc.

    Sort of like breaking in a new shoe. It hurts like hell for the first few miles then begins to fit better and better until you forget your wearing it :D
  6. Not true. Iraq had its first free vote in 1932. It was democratic until 1958.
  7. You are right and I was wrong. :)
  8. What happens when the government that represents the feelings of the majority give the US a week to leave ? That'll be fun.
  9. Some editing by me. I suppose we will see determined efforts to detect and bring to trial those responsible for this mayhem? Along the lines we have used for the odd squaddie who goes off track and pushes someone?
  10. If Iraq's post-WWII history is any guide to its future, there is little room for optimism:

    1941 Pro-German military coup by Generals, prompting a British invasion. New, pro-British government installed.

    1948-49 War with Israel

    1958 Monarchy overthrown in a military coup. King Faisal II executed and hanged by his feet outside his palace with other royals. The body of the prime minister, Nuri as-Said, tied to a car and dragged through the streets until nothing left but half a leg. Iraq proclaimed a republic.

    1959 Failed rebellion against the new government by Mosul garrison, hundreds massacred.

    1959 Failed Ba'ath Party assassination attempt against military ruler Brigadier Qassem. Amongst the assassins was the young Saddam Hussein.

    1963 Qassem assassinated, Ba'ath Arab Socialist Party takes power.

    1963 Successful coup against the Ba'athists.

    1968 Ba'athists regain power in a coup.

    1979 Saddam Hussein becomes president and purges rivals.

    1980-88 Iran-Iraq War costs approx one million lives.

    1990 Invasion of Kuwait.

    1991 Gulf War (Operation Desert Storm) lasts six weeks, 100,000 Iraqi soldiers killed and tens of thousands of civilians.

    1991 Kurdish and Shia Rebellions put down.

    2003 Gulf War II.

    (Those who strive to establish democracy in such a quagmire deserve medals).