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Why Am I Not Surprised

#1
Gallup Finds Unemployment Rate Soars Following Presidential Election
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/06/2012 11:43 -0500

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics Gallup New Normal Reality Unemployment


Two months ago, there were various prominent pundits who were furiously mocked and ridiculed by those whose job in the media it is to mock and ridicule, for suggesting what most know: that economic data is widely nuanced, massaged, adjusted, goalseeked and outright manipulated by various political interests. That someone would feign outrage by this allegation is laughable at best (and sorry, the "too many people were involved to keep it a secret" excuse is now absolute rubbish following the confirmation of Liborgate, yet another conspiracy theory until it became a conspiracy fact), yet all the "serious" outlets of insight did just that. Now that the election is over, for one reason or another "unnuanced" normalcy is about to strike back with a vengeance, as soon as tomorrow with the official release of November jobs data. And if the just released Gallup unemployment data is any indication, the amount of outright goalseeking by the fine folks at the BLS was nothing short of startling. Because after recording an adjusted unemployment rate of 7.4% in October, the November unemployment rate, based on a random sample of 29,308 adults, soared by a whopping 0.9% in one month to 8.3%, the most since the Great financial crisis itself! And furthermore, at 8.3% the unemployment rate is now the highest since May. Is it time yet for all those sellsiders to admit they were wrong weeks after producing beautiful pitchbooks of how 2013 will be "different this time" and the economy will soar? Or should we wait a few weeks first?
The unemployemnt rate per Gallup:

Gallup's take:
These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone, with approximately 30,000 Americans throughout the month -- 67.2% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. Last year, the government adjusted the November rate upward by 0.5 percentage points.

It is unclear what caused the increase in the unemployment rate in November, although some experts speculate that it was caused by jobs lost as a result of superstorm Sandy. It is also possible that lackluster holiday hiring is to blame.

Although the increase in the unadjusted rate in November is a sharp contrast to the 0.9-point decline seen in October, November's 7.8% rate is still tied for the second-best unadjusted unemployment monthly reading of 2012. However, on an adjusted basis, November's rate is the highest reading in six months. Looking at year-to-year comparisons, seasonally adjusted unemployment is down from 8.9% in November 2011.
As for U-6 (underemployment)...

Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 17.2% in November, a 1.3-point increase since the end of October. The uptick in November also puts an end to the six-month trend of improvements or no change. Still, underemployment has improved 0.9 points since November 2011.

Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage who are unemployed with the percentage of those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.
Finally, as so often happens in the New Normal, take anything you believe and flip it. Which is why if objective reality is precedent, expect the BLS to announce yet another improvement in the unemployment rate, increasingly more often notices of major layoffs of blue chip companies notwithstanding.


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#2
Politicians massage unemployment figures.
In other news, bear seen shitting in woods.
If a politician told me the time, i would check my watch.

CG
 
#3
Politicians massage unemployment figures.
In other news, bear seen shitting in woods.
If a politician told me the time, i would check my watch.

CG
I realize you can tell a politician is lying if his/her lips are moving. My point was rather that unlike past generations here at least, the media is actively working as a propaganda arm instead of a check against government overreaching.


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#6
Indeed, all rather symbiotic - & the bottom line is they all only focus on what they can get out of the situation & for how long.
Sadly, present day exceptions to this rule of thumb don't spring to mind.
 
#8
based on a random sample of 29,308 adults
That sample is way too small to be representative. The findings could have gone either way.

You've got 10 people of working age. You ask 2 if they are unemployed. 1 guy says yes.

50% unemployment rate!
 
#13
Ah, you mean like the Brown government claiming we were still minted until they lost and then the Treasury Minister left a letter… "The moneys all gone'?
No, I mean like borrowing more and more money from China to pay for election promises that the country couldn't afford and calling everyone who thought that was a bad idea a racist.
 

Grumblegrunt

LE
Book Reviewer
#14
Its astounding how all those unemployed republican door knockers can effect the figures isn't it, typical romney - get rid of the lot when no longer needed
 
#15
No, I mean like borrowing more and more money from China to pay for election promises that the country couldn't afford and calling everyone who thought that was a bad idea a racist.
"…The U.S. budget deficit is financed by borrowing. More and more of that money comes from China, now the United States' second-largest lender, after Japan. China's investment in U.S. government debt has more than tripled in the past five years, from $71 billion in 2000 to $242 billion in 2005.…"

Re-evaluating U.S. Debt - William Schneider - The Atlantic


George W. Bush
43rd President of the United States
In office
January 20, 2001 – January 20, 2009
 
#16
"…The U.S. budget deficit is financed by borrowing. More and more of that money comes from China, now the United States' second-largest lender, after Japan. China's investment in U.S. government debt has more than tripled in the past five years, from $71 billion in 2000 to $242 billion in 2005.…"

Re-evaluating U.S. Debt - William Schneider - The Atlantic


George W. Bush
43rd President of the United States
In office
January 20, 2001 – January 20, 2009
What you said and the class warfare tactic of raising taxes on the evil rich ($250k) is but a drop in the bucket of debt and would be so even if the Feds confiscate 100% of the evil rich's income. Spending on entitlement programs is the elephant in the room for addressing the horrific imbalance in the US "budget."


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#17
What you said and the class warfare tactic of raising taxes on the evil rich ($250k) is but a drop in the bucket of debt and would be so even if the Feds confiscate 100% of the evil rich's income. Spending on entitlement programs is the elephant in the room for addressing the horrific imbalance in the US "budget."


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The USA will have to impose a Federal 'VAT' to close it's fiscal Black Hole.
 
#19
JJH. You've finally caught up with us. Politician and the media are joined at the hip.

CG
But from what I have seen in my forays into Blighty, there is still a modicum of difference between the major news outlets (especially print) perhaps only if due to economic competition but it is not as bad in my view as here where the various media sources favorable to the regime actively coordinate their story. It is almost uncanny how the same phrasing is used by almost all the primary news organizations (print and telly) in reporting on any action or policy of our Masters--one would almost think they are parroting talking points developed by our Masters. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JournoList:wtf:
 
#20
They are totally predictable. The Mail will blame it on foreigners, the Telegraph will call for more deregulation, the Express will print another Diana story, the Independent will run a lifestyle piece about gay interior decorators, and the Guardian and BBC will say the Govt needs to spend more money on multicultural education centres.

May as well not bother.
 

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