Why Am I Not Surprised

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by jumpinjarhead, Dec 7, 2012.

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  1. Gallup Finds Unemployment Rate Soars Following Presidential Election
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/06/2012 11:43 -0500

    BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics Gallup New Normal Reality Unemployment

    Two months ago, there were various prominent pundits who were furiously mocked and ridiculed by those whose job in the media it is to mock and ridicule, for suggesting what most know: that economic data is widely nuanced, massaged, adjusted, goalseeked and outright manipulated by various political interests. That someone would feign outrage by this allegation is laughable at best (and sorry, the "too many people were involved to keep it a secret" excuse is now absolute rubbish following the confirmation of Liborgate, yet another conspiracy theory until it became a conspiracy fact), yet all the "serious" outlets of insight did just that. Now that the election is over, for one reason or another "unnuanced" normalcy is about to strike back with a vengeance, as soon as tomorrow with the official release of November jobs data. And if the just released Gallup unemployment data is any indication, the amount of outright goalseeking by the fine folks at the BLS was nothing short of startling. Because after recording an adjusted unemployment rate of 7.4% in October, the November unemployment rate, based on a random sample of 29,308 adults, soared by a whopping 0.9% in one month to 8.3%, the most since the Great financial crisis itself! And furthermore, at 8.3% the unemployment rate is now the highest since May. Is it time yet for all those sellsiders to admit they were wrong weeks after producing beautiful pitchbooks of how 2013 will be "different this time" and the economy will soar? Or should we wait a few weeks first?
    The unemployemnt rate per Gallup:

    Gallup's take:
    These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone, with approximately 30,000 Americans throughout the month -- 67.2% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. Last year, the government adjusted the November rate upward by 0.5 percentage points.

    It is unclear what caused the increase in the unemployment rate in November, although some experts speculate that it was caused by jobs lost as a result of superstorm Sandy. It is also possible that lackluster holiday hiring is to blame.

    Although the increase in the unadjusted rate in November is a sharp contrast to the 0.9-point decline seen in October, November's 7.8% rate is still tied for the second-best unadjusted unemployment monthly reading of 2012. However, on an adjusted basis, November's rate is the highest reading in six months. Looking at year-to-year comparisons, seasonally adjusted unemployment is down from 8.9% in November 2011.
    As for U-6 (underemployment)...

    Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 17.2% in November, a 1.3-point increase since the end of October. The uptick in November also puts an end to the six-month trend of improvements or no change. Still, underemployment has improved 0.9 points since November 2011.

    Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage who are unemployed with the percentage of those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.
    Finally, as so often happens in the New Normal, take anything you believe and flip it. Which is why if objective reality is precedent, expect the BLS to announce yet another improvement in the unemployment rate, increasingly more often notices of major layoffs of blue chip companies notwithstanding.

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  2. Politicians massage unemployment figures.
    In other news, bear seen shitting in woods.
    If a politician told me the time, i would check my watch.

  3. I realize you can tell a politician is lying if his/her lips are moving. My point was rather that unlike past generations here at least, the media is actively working as a propaganda arm instead of a check against government overreaching.

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  4. That won't be a shocking revelation to anyone this side of the pond.
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  5. JJH. You've finally caught up with us. Politician and the media are joined at the hip.

  6. Indeed, all rather symbiotic - & the bottom line is they all only focus on what they can get out of the situation & for how long.
    Sadly, present day exceptions to this rule of thumb don't spring to mind.
  7. Obamas fault! Nothing to do with the utterly eye-watering level of US debt he inherited from Bush the Younger.
  8. That sample is way too small to be representative. The findings could have gone either way.

    You've got 10 people of working age. You ask 2 if they are unemployed. 1 guy says yes.

    50% unemployment rate!
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  9. Fixed for you.
  10. Oh how I wish the lefties here could see this.
  11. No, I mean like borrowing more and more money from China to pay for election promises that the country couldn't afford and calling everyone who thought that was a bad idea a racist.
    • Like Like x 1
  12. Grumblegrunt

    Grumblegrunt LE Book Reviewer

    Its astounding how all those unemployed republican door knockers can effect the figures isn't it, typical romney - get rid of the lot when no longer needed
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  13. "…The U.S. budget deficit is financed by borrowing. More and more of that money comes from China, now the United States' second-largest lender, after Japan. China's investment in U.S. government debt has more than tripled in the past five years, from $71 billion in 2000 to $242 billion in 2005.…"

    Re-evaluating U.S. Debt - William Schneider - The Atlantic

    George W. Bush
    43rd President of the United States
    In office
    January 20, 2001 – January 20, 2009
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