when we run out of Oil

#1
say when we do run out of Oil , what is the alternative ?
even worse no Govt has any contigency plan for when we run out of Oil ( most likely secenario ) will war be fought over resources or are we all going to sit down and discuss the situation rationally (don't think so )
 
#2
Gee, wars have never been fought over resources before, have they?

The problem is, the folks with the most important oil, that being relatively unexploited deposits, are the Canucks. We look like Yanks, can talk like Yanks, and if we want we can convince someone from Texas that we are from Washington state or someone from Utah that we are from New York.

Think you have problems with 18-35 year old, Arabic-looking jihadis? Come give us an unannounced visit.

That said, the average Canuck is as fat and lazy as the average Yank and really couldn't be bothered to get off his ass so long as Hockey Night In Canada still runs and we get to occasionally ogle Shania Twain.

Mind, given that second bit, it's not such a bad deal really. Oooooo.....Shania.......

But, since you asked a serious-type question, you deserve a serious-type response.

Of course we will fight wars over resources until such time as they are exhausted or are replaced by other types of resources. Our societal structures are built on the presumption of the availability of certain resources (ever tried to build a skyscraper with bamboo vice steel?). Hence, the lack of resources would threaten our society and be just cause (depending on your point of view) to enact the ultimate authority of the state, that is to wage war.

Just my .02. And I apologize for my frivolous and sarcastic initial response. But Shania is still smokin' hot.
 
#3
well production of oil and gas in the north sea has already peaked. At current rates we'll be out by 2020-2025. That might be extended slightly if we have better gains in effeciency than predicted and the recent renewable fuels obligation (all fuel to be 5% biofuel by 2010).
However the official line is after the stuff in the north sea has gone there's probably very little "secure" oil left, although this depends on norway and russia in the barents sea, as well as the situation in the middle east.
Even a push towards nuclear power won't make a huge difference, we don't really burn oil and with new stations nuclear powerstations not coming online til at least 2015 (if we pass the planning now and get building tomorrow) there isn't much we can do to reduce our dependance, apart from a radical shift in the way we use energy.
Renewables target is 10% by 2010% and will almost certainly be missed, with current levels about 3.5%, of which some of that is hydroelectric and has been in operation long before any recent drive.
Anyway, the way things are going we're going to sit on our hands and hope the EU liberalises their energy market, meaning we have access to gas and oil at market prices, rather than the current situation where we could offer all we wanted for gas and oil but a state run company will supply their own country first.
Alternative energy sources are few and far between. To go hydrogen requires electricity to produce that hydrogen, the only way of doing that would be even more nuclear power stations. Nuclear fusion is out of the question til 2040 they reckon. Biofuels could not be grown in quantity and require an energy input from fertilisers etc. Anyone got any good ideas?
To sum up, we'll be out of oil and gas, unless something changes we'll be at the end of the pipelines, half of them from politically insecure states. Terminals importing from africa may be a useful asset.
Has that helped at all?
 
#4
crabby said:
well production of oil and gas in the north sea has already peaked. At current rates we'll be out by 2020-2025. That might be extended slightly if we have better gains in effeciency than predicted and the recent renewable fuels obligation (all fuel to be 5% biofuel by 2010).
However the official line is after the stuff in the north sea has gone there's probably very little "secure" oil left, although this depends on norway and russia in the barents sea, as well as the situation in the middle east.
Even a push towards nuclear power won't make a huge difference, we don't really burn oil and with new stations nuclear powerstations not coming online til at least 2015 (if we pass the planning now and get building tomorrow) there isn't much we can do to reduce our dependance, apart from a radical shift in the way we use energy.
Renewables target is 10% by 2010% and will almost certainly be missed, with current levels about 3.5%, of which some of that is hydroelectric and has been in operation long before any recent drive.
Anyway, the way things are going we're going to sit on our hands and hope the EU liberalises their energy market, meaning we have access to gas and oil at market prices, rather than the current situation where we could offer all we wanted for gas and oil but a state run company will supply their own country first.
Alternative energy sources are few and far between. To go hydrogen requires electricity to produce that hydrogen, the only way of doing that would be even more nuclear power stations. Nuclear fusion is out of the question til 2040 they reckon. Biofuels could not be grown in quantity and require an energy input from fertilisers etc. Anyone got any good ideas?
To sum up, we'll be out of oil and gas, unless something changes we'll be at the end of the pipelines, half of them from politically insecure states. Terminals importing from africa may be a useful asset.
Has that helped at all?
So we are in the crap then?
 
#5
errrr... from everything I've seen yes
Tony Blair (bless his little cotton socks) disbanded the nuclear review set up under the john major, this could have given us an extra couple of years to sort out the mess and possibly reduce our dependance on fossil fuels. Nuclear may have a bad name but it's not all bad. With gas and oil pretty much set to carry on rising the cost of producing electricity using nuclear power will be just about economic, even taking into account decommissioning costs.
The only way to get ourselves out of this little hole is a wide ranging approach;
biofuels
microgeneration - tiny wind turbines on every house would reduce our consumption, but they're not that great...
changing building regulations so that thermal solar water heaters are installed into all new houses would help
reducing our transport, especially aviation
and basically just telling everyone to stop being so b****y useless at using energy

(my god I sound like a hippy)

New oil reserves will continue to be found but there isn't a lot left in the north sea. There is some hope however for the atlantic, west of scotland, higher oil prices and advances in technology may mean we can get some more oil and gas from underneath there. So don't expect to run out completely by 2025. It is a fact that oil reserves continue to be found and previously uneconomic ones brought into production with new advances, but there is too much complacency

oh and back to original question resources will be allocated to those who are willing to pay for them or those strong enough to take those resources by force. USA should note however that the abrams requires an entire middle-eastern country's supply just to invade another...
 
#7
No Need to panic, crabby is quite correct when he says that new oil will be found, The north sea will eventually dry up, but we now have the technology to drill in deeper water, which opens up our fields in the atlantic, At present all the resources are put into production and the recovery of oil, in a few years the companies will return to exploration and will no doubt "suprise" us with significant new finds. The big companies play the statistics to keep the oil prices high. If they told you we had plenty oil to last many lifetimes then the price of oil would stabilise, which isnt good for them.
I am currently working in Nigeria for a large oil company and the size of fields here dwarf the north sea, same goes for the caspian sea.
i for one do not worry about the oil reserves because i know the truth and dont listen to the media spin.
Plus we have now "liberated" iraqs oil field so that should keep the gas guzzling yanks happy for a few years
 
#8
On the positive side, once Saudi Arabia runs out of oil, we can nuke it. We've been tolerating and lauding these sociopathic lunatics for years.
 
#9
What is latest position on wells dug into good reserves but deemed financially unattractive. Think there were lots of these in 1970s? What sort of prices will it take before they can be brought on stream? Then there were the other sources like shale?
 
#10
Economicsc dictate that as easy to find sources run out the previously too expensive to exploit reserves will come on line. Failing that we drill sideways like Mr Burns did on the Simpsons when oil was found under the school.
 
#11
Current thinking now is that its not that we'lll run out resources, rather there will be a bottleneck on what we have. ie; We the world will be burning it faster than we can get it out of the ground. This means that certain countries or economic blocks will want to get control over certain oil/gas supplies. The switch to alterntives could of course help avoid all that but at the moment we are not set up for it. The oil pipelines are not in the right places to pipe biofuels from where they can be produced to where they are needed etc.

On the bright side there is approx 200 years of proven coal supplies that can be got at and can be converted to oil, gas, and electricty - it ain't as clean but it'll do the job if you forget about kyoto etc.

In short there will be tensions as always but if we can stop spawning brats that grow up to want suv's we can probably avoid too much nastyness... unfortunately somebody needs to tell the spams and chinese that.

Oh heck, yeah we're all dead I think that's what you wanted to hear...
 
#12
vandyke said:
I am currently working in Nigeria for a large oil company and the size of fields here dwarf the north sea, same goes for the caspian sea.
i for one do not worry about the oil reserves because i know the truth and dont listen to the media spin.
Plus we have now "liberated" iraqs oil field so that should keep the gas guzzling yanks happy for a few years
Thats the worrying thing....they're all somewhere else, and excuse the pun - they have us over a barrell (Russia and Ukraine springs to mind).
 
#13
In short there will be tensions as always but if we can stop spawning brats that grow up to want suv's we can probably avoid too much nastyness... unfortunately somebody needs to tell the spams and chinese that.
How about we stop spawning brats that grow up to want mopeds?
In the eyes of many of the worlds people they're just as wasteful and unecessary as the SUV is to the majority of it's users in our society.

If in fact, we could stop spawning brats that want, want again and then want some more for good measure we might be on the right track.

Or, to put it another way.

If we could get everyone to realise that there's more to living than how much money you can make and how much auld crap you buy with it then we might be on the road to sorting the whole mess out. Certainly we'll be closer than we are now.
 
E

error_unknown

Guest
#14
Maybe we should burn religious types for warmth, I'm sure Lady Whitadder would approve...
 
E

error_unknown

Guest
#15
Or Abu Hamza... all that otherwise useless blubber should keep us going for the next century or so.
 
#16
As current oilfields run low, supply and demand means the price of oil will go up.
The price of oil going up means that other oilfields which have been found but arent economic, suddenly become economic.
Revenue will be spent more in exploration of other oilfields. The earth is more than three-quarters covered by water, and apart from the North Sea, where else has been tapped? Or even discovered? There will be such a demand for this oil that deep sea oil extraction technology will have to be developed.

The price rise also pushes some people away from using oil, that means alternative sources of energy, and energy saving measures, get more consideration, funding, development. Which gives us another string to our bow.

The price rise also makes things that are on the higher end of the spectrum towards the area marked "unsustainable", more expensive, ie. aviation. Which means that the people taking flights cant afford to do it as often or for as far. Which reduces our dependency on oil naturally.

The media acts like it will be the end of civilisation as we know it, but I believe it'll be self regulating. We'll find the level we can afford to live at, and be forced to live at that level and not above. Adapt, improvise, overcome.

Gook
 
#18
Biscuits, yes we should try and curb materialism as much as possible, and actually having decent public transport might help with pollution. As it is, British Rail are far too mongoloid for this to work yet... TGV levitating bullet-trains like the Europeans anyone?

Maybe a Chinese-stylee "only 1 baby per couple" so that we dont have hordes of kids all wanting, but I couldnt really see that working with the current chav population unless they were sterilised...
 
#19
There are still enormous untapped reserves around the Falklands, which apart from maintaining strategic control of the Drake Passage, and pis*ing of the Argentinians, is the reason we wont hand it over.
 
#20
Yep Abu Hamza could be used, perhaps lock him in a room with images of the US occupation or from www.grouchymedia.com forcefully replayed and his eyelids held open, and he'd produce enough hot air to heat the Home Counties...

Or maybe recognise that the only energy source that will never run out is stupidity, treadmills in shopping centres offering prize cars or whatever to whoever runs the fastest, the power goes straight into the grid and it'd ease the burden on the NHS too...
 

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