What would make you buy an electric car?

Ooh a graph, care to translate it for those less knowledgeable?

is there a demand datum or the signed off amounts of renewables planning to come on board?

I’ve got a mate who is quite senior in all things national electrickery supply.
I asked him about the roll out of all these EVs & would the grid cope. His reply - “Easily. Don’t believe all you read. We’ve got supply lines from France, The Netherlands & one is currently being put in to Norway. We also generate plenty ourselves”.

I asked about the 18.00hrs big switch on for charging & the demand surge. “You’ll plug it in, but won’t necessarily start charging immediately. It may start at 2am, but be ready for when you need it at 7”.

What if I get in from work, plug it in, but need it at 20.00? “Tough”.
 

anglo

LE
Ooh a graph, care to translate it for those less knowledgeable?

is there a demand datum or the signed off amounts of renewables planning to come on board?
The graph shows that over that daily period, gas was taking the major part of the
grid load, the load dip during the night was due to consumers switching off heating etc,
At this stage if the wind turbines had been running at maximum output the gas plants could have been shut down, the output of the wind turbines at this time were next to nothing if this happens into a long period of very cold weather the crap could hit the fan very quickly.

Below is two screenshots of the grid over a 24-hour period, as you can see, very high demand,
the wind turbine out output is next to nothing, If more wind turbines are added to the grid
is there a chance with end up with low output and not enough back up as a number of nuclear stations are due to shut within the next two years
Left click to enlarge

Screenshot_2021-03-02 G B National Grid status.png


Screenshot_2021-03-03 G B National Grid status.png


Below, Here we have wind turbines running at full output, notice some gas turbines have been shut down,
Nuclear is running at max output, biomass is max output, and we're pulling max from France
we only have the spare left on gas

Screenshot_2021-02-12 G B National Grid status.png
 
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I understand that you cannot just put EVs out there without a viable source of renewables to feed it, it’s viable here in Aus because renewables are coming on board at suck a pace, storage is the issue for those times renewables don’t work.

If you are saying the U.K. cannot supply enough green power to make EVs viable, and I don’t know what’s in the pipeline, then I absolutely agree, your EVs are just powered by fossil fuels and it makes a mockery of the whole thing.
 

anglo

LE
I understand that you cannot just put EVs out there without a viable source of renewables to feed it, it’s viable here in Aus because renewables are coming on board at suck a pace, storage is the issue for those times renewables don’t work.

If you are saying the U.K. cannot supply enough green power to make EVs viable, and I don’t know what’s in the pipeline, then I absolutely agree, your EVs are just powered by fossil fuels and it makes a mockery of the whole thing.
Image result for what capacity are the wind turbines in uk 2020
By the beginning of December 2020, wind power production consisted of 10,930 wind turbines with a total installed capacity of over 24.1 gigawatts: 13.7 gigawatts of onshore capacity and 10.4 gigawatts of offshore capacity. This placed the United Kingdom at this time as the world's sixth largest producer of wind power.

The largest output I've seen of wind on the UK grid is just over 13Gw {installed capacity of over 24.1 gigawatts:}
The lowest is around 0.5Gw
So. if the number of wind turbines is doubled are we still going to end up in the position of,
low output at times, which means we will have to have back up in the form of gas turbines,
which defeats the object of having turbines
 

Arte_et_Marte

ADC
Moderator
There are a lot of people that currently rely on, and can only afford, a sub 1K vehicle.

I can't see the 2nd/3rd/4th hand EV market coming close to that price, I'm guessing that the main cost of keeping older vehicles on the road is going to be the battery replacement.

Anybody know what that cost is?
 
If you are saying the U.K. cannot supply enough green power to make EVs viable, and I don’t know what’s in the pipeline, then I absolutely agree, your EVs are just powered by fossil fuels and it makes a mockery of the whole thing.

Fossil fuels converting electricity produce less pollution than petrol/diesel.
 
There are a lot of people that currently rely on, and can only afford, a sub 1K vehicle.

I can't see the 2nd/3rd/4th hand EV market coming close to that price, I'm guessing that the main cost of keeping older vehicles on the road is going to be the battery replacement.

Anybody know what that cost is?

Eventually they will, as supply starts building up.
 

Arte_et_Marte

ADC
Moderator
Eventually they will, as supply starts building up.
Aye, you're right, but it'll take years, meantime Bill and Bettie will be expected to pay a much larger sum to tax their existing ICE sub £1K motor, (that they won't be able to afford, because in all likelihood it will be exorbitant) until the cheaper EV's become available.

There are a lot of Bill and Betties out there.
 

OneTenner

LE
Book Reviewer
There are a lot of people that currently rely on, and can only afford, a sub 1K vehicle.

I can't see the 2nd/3rd/4th hand EV market coming close to that price, I'm guessing that the main cost of keeping older vehicles on the road is going to be the battery replacement.

Anybody know what that cost is?
Currently ( ;) ) full EV (i.e. not hybrid) batteries are in the region of £17.5k upwards, plus fitting. Sometimes this can be a three day, multi-tech task if there is a fault with the isolation control system or contactor due to safety considerations. so worst case this could add roughly £5k to the cost. On top of that, will be the transportation cost / recycling tax - which i've no doubt will come once the levels of ownership reach a critical mass.

I doubt many EV's will last long enough to see 3rd or 4th owner, the bodywork & interiors will be dumbed down to Fiat levels of thin / cheapness and cars will become miserable boxes of range anxiety to be continuously recycled every few years. Batteries won't / can't get much cheaper due to the complexities of mining and handling Lithium, I also expect there will be a Lithium equivalent of OPEC to control pricing. It's in no-ones interest to have cheaply produced, unregulated replacement batteries available for the used EV market.
Likewise, the aftermarket repair and service facilities need to be controlled WRT training, safety and compliance.

ETA: The motors, DC-DC converters, PTC heaters and coolant systems are not insignificant costs either - we recently changed a traction motor at a cost to us of £5500.
 
Aye, you're right, but it'll take years, meantime Bill and Bettie will be expected to pay a much larger sum to tax their existing ICE sub £1K motor, (that they won't be able to afford, because in all likelihood it will be exorbitant) until the cheaper EV's become available.

There are a lot of Bill and Betties out there.

Poor people will eventually catch up with the rest of society.
 
Currently ( ;) ) full EV (i.e. not hybrid) batteries are in the region of £17.5k upwards, plus fitting. Sometimes this can be a three day, multi-tech task if there is a fault with the isolation control system or contactor due to safety considerations. so worst case this could add roughly £5k to the cost. On top of that, will be the transportation cost / recycling tax - which i've no doubt will come once the levels of ownership reach a critical mass.

I doubt many EV's will last long enough to see 3rd or 4th owner, the bodywork & interiors will be dumbed down to Fiat levels of thin / cheapness and cars will become miserable boxes of range anxiety to be continuously recycled every few years. Batteries won't / can't get much cheaper due to the complexities of mining and handling Lithium, I also expect there will be a Lithium equivalent of OPEC to control pricing. It's in no-ones interest to have cheaply produced, unregulated replacement batteries available for the used EV market.
Likewise, the aftermarket repair and service facilities need to be controlled WRT training, safety and compliance.

ETA: The motors, DC-DC converters, PTC heaters and coolant systems are not insignificant costs either - we recently changed a traction motor at a cost to us of £5500.
Roughly a shit ton of cash then?
 

OneTenner

LE
Book Reviewer
Roughly a shit ton of cash then?
Yes, a full metric one. Other than the battery technology, the rest is not 'new' as such. Motors, inverters and chargers etc. have been around for years and have a long shadow of improvement and innovation behind them, but yet they still fail.
 
There are a lot of people that currently rely on, and can only afford, a sub 1K vehicle.

I can't see the 2nd/3rd/4th hand EV market coming close to that price, I'm guessing that the main cost of keeping older vehicles on the road is going to be the battery replacement.

Anybody know what that cost is?

Most EV manufacturers give an 8 year or 100,000 mile warranty so replacing the battery may not be very frequent. Prices have dropped over the last year and the cost is down from €1000 per Kwh to $227 per Kwh so a 40Kwh battery replacement would be about 10k (not including fitting). Forecasts for them to come down to the $100 per Kwh pretty soon.
 

tgo

War Hero
I understand that you cannot just put EVs out there without a viable source of renewables to feed it, it’s viable here in Aus because renewables are coming on board at suck a pace, storage is the issue for those times renewables don’t work.

If you are saying the U.K. cannot supply enough green power to make EVs viable, and I don’t know what’s in the pipeline, then I absolutely agree, your EVs are just powered by fossil fuels and it makes a mockery of the whole thing.

You guys should be fine over there, big ol houses, with lots of roof, solar panels, lots of sun, tesla power wall and you'd be self sufficient.
 

OneTenner

LE
Book Reviewer
Poor people will eventually catch up with the rest of society.
So how many Indians will have a EV as a first car then?
Add to that, China, Afghanistan - even Russia, the UK 'effort' is pretty much pissing in the wind, as to the 'we have to start somewhere', well, why not with new owners? a bit like a starter home subsidy.
 
So how many Indians will have a EV as a first car then?
Add to that, China, Afghanistan - even Russia, the UK 'effort' is pretty much pissing in the wind, as to the 'we have to start somewhere', well, why not with new owners? a bit like a starter home subsidy.

Why would care about Indians? If only 22 of them have a car now, then only 22 of them will (on average) have a car in the future.

And China is getting there


Meanwhile, in the UK people still come out with piss poor excuses.
 

Arte_et_Marte

ADC
Moderator
Why would care about Indians? If only 22 of them have a car now, then only 22 of them will (on average) have a car in the future.

And China is getting there


Meanwhile, in the UK people still come out with piss poor excuses.
You think it's a piss poor excuse having money for just managing to get by each month?
 
You think it's a piss poor excuse having money for just managing to get by each month?

By and large, yes. Maybe if you are young and just starting its excusable, after that its usually your own choices.

Want a job? Join the Army and get 20k basic salary.
 

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