What would make you buy an electric car?

[4(T)]

I'm a sceptic on the true viability of EVs as a replacement transportation means when compared to ICE (assuming the 2030 date is kept to and there's no significant change to the in-car storage or range issues in the meantime), but as a recently retired traffic management engineer with a local Council I do have to raise a comment about the 'lack of thought about infrastructure' in support of my ex-colleagues.

One of the projects I worked on was delivery of on-street charging posts in residential streets where the properties were primarily Victorian terrace with no off-street parking.

NIMBYs.... my God, but they are EVERYWHERE!! ...and boy, do they make it hard work to deliver anything!
The level of opposition to just a simple proposal to provide one on-street charging post was mind boggling. In one of the longer residential roads closer to the town centre we tried to introduce four posts.!.. How DARE we!! ....just simple posts fed from adjacent lamp columns with a trickle 3.7kW supply, so mainly aimed at providing charge for overnight parking by residents.

EV ownership numbers at that time were of course low, but 'Build it and they will come!' was the principle...

Two years of consultation... two years...!!. or was it three? ..or maybe four... ..and that was just the arguing stage... it felt longer as we pretty much got nowhere with some residents and their self-appointed committees of like-minded curtain twitchers ...

People may support on-street charging in principle, as long as the charge post isn't outside their house ("that's MY parking spot!... and I can't afford an EV and I don't want 'other people' to park there") or "the charge post MUST be directly outside my house for me to support!!" ...even though the engineering effort to provide ducting that distance from the lamp column was unviable.... all the way through to residents physically preventing construction for weeks on end, or continually damaging infrastructure once in place.

Unsurprisingly the project hasn't moved much further in the year since I left, although I did manage to install 36 of the on-street posts around the town eventually.

I also had put everything in place before I left, ready to implement an Experimental Traffic Regulation Order to reserve the parking spots alongside those posts for exclusive use by resident permit parking holders with EVs, but when push came to shove local Councillors didn't want that to be progressed either, despite calling for 'action' for years as they didn't want to deal with any more objection from those bledy pensioner aged residents with nothing better to do who had no intention of ever owning an EV anyway.....

There.... got that off me chest....

To be fair, this also demonstrates the dogmatic and blinkered approach of the EV jihadists in forcing through their agenda without any consideration to either practical problems or existing social tensions - let alone delivering solutions to those problems.

On-street parking is already in chronic short supply in many areas, and a leading cause of social stress. Parking disputes already lead to vandalism, neighbour wars - even violence sometimes culminating in murder. Even "allocated" parking is frequently resented - such as disabled spaces (many of which acquired through fraudulent application).

Removing available parking space by introducing lamp-post EV charging for a privileged few simply exacerbates the problem, amplified by the fact that the "trickle charging users" will inevitably hog those parking spots, and themselves become territorial and possessive of them. Human nature 101, etc.

Whether EVs are viable for universal use is highly subjective, but what isn't in doubt is that the programme of forcing them into use is shockingly ill-conceived, under-resourced and being implemented far too fast - long before any solutions to the technological, social and financial issues have been found.

 

[anglo]

Yes I did spell Clark incorrectly and you have found the right firm. They’re business analytics people are the one of (probably the) leading UK energy markets analysts. They do consultancy work on energy planning to just about everyone involved in the UK energy market; government, National Grid, the electricity companies, investors and planners. Delve into the Energy pages and blogs and you’ll find any number of reports and analysis that will cure your basic ignorance.

I’m not going to engage with you on the grid watch graph. The starting point of your analysis is and always has been fundamentally flawed. You work from the idea that the grid buys all available wind energy because it is cheap. It doesn’t. It only buys it if it has demand that exceeds its forward contracted suppliers.

Bottom line; you cannot draw any conclusions from the graph you have posted.

Edited to add: anyone who has ever been involved professionally with energy investment in the UK knows of LCP.

You wrote all this rubbish, where are the links to all this information,

"I’m not going to engage with you on the grid watch graph."

Would that be because you don't understand it


What would make you buy an electric car?
And no, your interpretation of the grid statistics is not correct. It’s based on fundamental ignorance of the market structure. I’ve previously posted links to articles and papers by Lane Clarke Peacock which destroy your argument and clearly demonstrate that the UK currently switches off renewables when they could generate because they cannot sell in to the Capacity Market.
bobthebuilder Post #3,381 10/05/2022 Forum: Cars, Bikes 'n AFVs


What are capacity markets?
Capacity markets are used in some wholesale electricity markets to pay resources for being available to meet peak electricity demand. Capacity is not actual electricity, but rather the ability to produce electricity when called upon several years in the future.

Capacity is not actual electricity, but rather the ability to produce electricity when called upon several years in the future.

That means that the capacity market has no control over wind turbine output in real time,

The only things that affect wind turbines in real time are,
1} not enough wind to drive the wind turbines
2} under restraint payment, when the wind turbines are turning out too much power for the infrastructure to cope with, [Scotland in stormy weather is a good example]
3} maintenance

Wind turbine power when available is never refused, what would be the point of wind turbines,
if you didn't use their green power when available, and turn off non-green gas



How does UK capacity market work?

The is the UK government's primary policy for ensuring security of electricity supply. It offers payments to power generators for being available to generate at certain times, and to demand response providers for being able to reduce electricity demand.

Capacity Market

Introduction
The purpose of the Capacity Market is to ensure security of Great Britain’s electricity supply
at least cost to consumers, by providing all forms of capacity with the right incentives to be
on the system and to deliver electricity when needed. The Capacity Market ensures there is
sufficient reliable capacity available during periods of electricity system stress, for example
during cold, still periods with high demand and low wind generation.
The Capacity Market works by allowing eligible capacity providers to bid into a competitive auction to provide capacity. Successful capacity providers are awarded a capacity agreement and receive steady payments to ensure enough capacity is in place to meet demand at times of system stress. These capacity payments incentivise the necessary
investment to maintain and refurbish existing capacity, and to finance new capacity where
necessary. Capacity providers face penalties if they fail to deliver capacity when requested
during a system stress event.
The Capacity Market is technology neutral – it does not seek to procure allocated volumes
of capacity from specific types of technology. All types of technology are able to participate
– except for capacity providers in receipt of support from other specific policy measures –
provided they can demonstrate sufficient technical performance to contribute to security of
supply, and provided they comply with the Capacity Market’s emissions limits

Capacity Auctions
Capacity auctions are held one (T-1) and four (T- 4) years ahead of the delivery year when
capacity must be provided, giving investors certainty over part of the future revenues they
will receive. Existing generating capacity competes against new build, Demand Side
Response (DSR) and interconnectors, with the auction procuring the mix of capacity which
provides best value for consumers.
In early 2021 there was a T-1 auction for delivery in 2021/22 and a T- 4 auction for delivery in 2024/25.
Table 1 below lists the planned auctions for 2022.

T-1 Auction results for 2021/22

The T-1 auction for the 2021/22 delivery year concluded on 2 March 2021 and secured
2.3GW of capacity at a clearing price of £45/kW. Just over 4.2GW of de-rated capacity
entered the auction, of which 53% received capacity agreements for delivery (Figure 1).
63% of awarded capacity is from existing generation capacity, and 13% from new build
generation capacity. The remaining capacity was awarded to existing interconnectors,
proven and unproven DSR.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040749/cfd-capacity-market-scheme-update-2021.pdf

 

[Tappet]

You wrote all this rubbish, where are the links to all this information,

"I’m not going to engage with you on the grid watch graph."

Would that be because you don't understand it


What would make you buy an electric car?
And no, your interpretation of the grid statistics is not correct. It’s based on fundamental ignorance of the market structure. I’ve previously posted links to articles and papers by Lane Clarke Peacock which destroy your argument and clearly demonstrate that the UK currently switches off renewables when they could generate because they cannot sell in to the Capacity Market.
bobthebuilder Post #3,381 10/05/2022 Forum: Cars, Bikes 'n AFVs


What are capacity markets?
Capacity markets are used in some wholesale electricity markets to pay resources for being available to meet peak electricity demand. Capacity is not actual electricity, but rather the ability to produce electricity when called upon several years in the future.

Capacity is not actual electricity, but rather the ability to produce electricity when called upon several years in the future.

That means that the capacity market has no control over wind turbine output in real time,

The only things that affect wind turbines in real time are,
1} not enough wind to drive the wind turbines
2} under restraint payment, when the wind turbines are turning out too much power for the infrastructure to cope with, [Scotland in stormy weather is a good example]
3} maintenance

Wind turbine power when available is never refused, what would be the point of wind turbines,
if you didn't use their green power when available, and turn off non-green gas



How does UK capacity market work?

The is the UK government's primary policy for ensuring security of electricity supply. It offers payments to power generators for being available to generate at certain times, and to demand response providers for being able to reduce electricity demand.

Capacity Market

Introduction
The purpose of the Capacity Market is to ensure security of Great Britain’s electricity supply
at least cost to consumers, by providing all forms of capacity with the right incentives to be
on the system and to deliver electricity when needed. The Capacity Market ensures there is
sufficient reliable capacity available during periods of electricity system stress, for example
during cold, still periods with high demand and low wind generation.
The Capacity Market works by allowing eligible capacity providers to bid into a competitive auction to provide capacity. Successful capacity providers are awarded a capacity agreement and receive steady payments to ensure enough capacity is in place to meet demand at times of system stress. These capacity payments incentivise the necessary
investment to maintain and refurbish existing capacity, and to finance new capacity where
necessary. Capacity providers face penalties if they fail to deliver capacity when requested
during a system stress event.
The Capacity Market is technology neutral – it does not seek to procure allocated volumes
of capacity from specific types of technology. All types of technology are able to participate
– except for capacity providers in receipt of support from other specific policy measures –
provided they can demonstrate sufficient technical performance to contribute to security of
supply, and provided they comply with the Capacity Market’s emissions limits

Capacity Auctions
Capacity auctions are held one (T-1) and four (T- 4) years ahead of the delivery year when
capacity must be provided, giving investors certainty over part of the future revenues they
will receive. Existing generating capacity competes against new build, Demand Side
Response (DSR) and interconnectors, with the auction procuring the mix of capacity which
provides best value for consumers.
In early 2021 there was a T-1 auction for delivery in 2021/22 and a T- 4 auction for delivery in 2024/25.
Table 1 below lists the planned auctions for 2022.


View attachment 662496


T-1 Auction results for 2021/22

The T-1 auction for the 2021/22 delivery year concluded on 2 March 2021 and secured
2.3GW of capacity at a clearing price of £45/kW. Just over 4.2GW of de-rated capacity
entered the auction, of which 53% received capacity agreements for delivery (Figure 1).
63% of awarded capacity is from existing generation capacity, and 13% from new build
generation capacity. The remaining capacity was awarded to existing interconnectors,
proven and unproven DSR.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040749/cfd-capacity-market-scheme-update-2021.pdf

@anglo
Could you please do something to your post to try to show the differences between:

1. Your comments
2. Bob's comments
3. Comments from the author of the article(s)
4. Extracts from the article.

It's a bit of a mess.

 

[exbluejob]

@anglo
Could you please do something to your post to try to show the differences between:

1. Your comments
2. Bob's comments
3. Comments from the author of the article(s)
4. Extracts from the article.

It's a bit of a mess.

I don't think life is long enough.

 

[bobthebuilder]

Wind turbine power when available is never refused, what would be the point of wind turbines,
if you didn't use their green power when available, and turn off non-green gas

Snipped. Wind power is often refused; probably every night.

I’ve explained why on multiple occasions. But to be clear:

The electricity market is divided into three sectors; capacity, demand and balancing.

The capacity market is bought forward on long contracts and consists mainly of nuclear, the remnants of coal, biofuel plus the inter-connectors. These are all base load generators that cannot be started, stopped or adjusted quickly to meet varying demand. Some gas is purchased on long contracts too. Note that some of the capacity market contracts (nuclear and inter-connector) are multi-year.

The demand market consists of generation capacity that can be switched on and off quickly; mostly gas, wind and solar. The grid will take wind energy if it can, but even then it’s not that simple because wind is contracted by CFD, gas is not. Gas can and is often contracted days ahead. Wind is not.

The balancing market consists of smaller, local power sources that can come on line quickly with certain availability to manage local imbalance in the grid. Some of this is gas; wind can only play in this market if there is guaranteed storage.

So in what circumstances would the grid not take wind power. The most obvious is night time in summer where aggregate demand is at or a little below the capacity market’s fixed output.

Note further; unlike gas, wind cannot sell into the capacity market because it is effectively subsidised by the CFD process. So the only way the grid can take wind power is if it has demand above what it has contracted long term on the capacity market and what it has contracted short term on the demand market.

Until you begin to understand the complex commercial and economic structure of the UK energy market, you will continue to misinterpret the grid watch dial.

I’ve provided you with plenty of references that explain how the market works. I’m not going to trawl them for sound bites that answer a question which is nonsensical if you understand the market structure.

Please don’t troll me.

 

[anglo]

Snipped. Wind power is often refused; probably every night.

I’ve explained why on multiple occasions. But to be clear:

The electricity market is divided into three sectors; capacity, demand and balancing.

The capacity market is bought forward on long contracts and consists mainly of nuclear, the remnants of coal, biofuel plus the inter-connectors. These are all base load generators that cannot be started, stopped or adjusted quickly to meet varying demand. Some gas is purchased on long contracts too. Note that some of the capacity market contracts (nuclear and inter-connector) are multi-year.

The demand market consists of generation capacity that can be switched on and off quickly; mostly gas, wind and solar. The grid will take wind energy if it can, but even then it’s not that simple because wind is contracted by CFD, gas is not. Gas can and is often contracted days ahead. Wind is not.

The balancing market consists of smaller, local power sources that can come on line quickly with certain availability to manage local imbalance in the grid. Some of this is gas; wind can only play in this market if there is guaranteed storage.

So in what circumstances would the grid not take wind power. The most obvious is night time in summer where aggregate demand is at or a little below the capacity market’s fixed output.

Note further; unlike gas, wind cannot sell into the capacity market because it is effectively subsidised by the CFD process. So the only way the grid can take wind power is if it has demand above what it has contracted long term on the capacity market and what it has contracted short term on the demand market.

Until you begin to understand the complex commercial and economic structure of the UK energy market, you will continue to misinterpret the grid watch dial.

I’ve provided you with plenty of references that explain how the market works. I’m not going to trawl them for sound bites that answer a question which is nonsensical if you understand the market structure.

Please don’t troll me.

Until you begin to understand the complex commercial and economic structure of the UK energy market, you will continue to misinterpret the grid watch dial.
The first two graph /map were taken on 02/05/2022, at 08:33-09 and 08:34-17, the wind map shows
low wind speeds, and the Grid graph shows low wind turbine output on the wind dial
That's how I read it

Below was taken this morning at 10:05-09 and 10:06-13, the wind map shows higher wind speeds than the map above, and the increase in wind speed as raised the output of the wind turbines, as shown on the wind dial of the grid graph.
That's how I read it
In the first instant I said low wind low output, the above readings, shows that to be true.

As you think, I read the map and dials wrong, please copy and paste the map and dials, and tell me where I went wrong,
Just explain why every time the wind is low the turbine output is low, or do you think that every time the output drops it's due to the market and not the wind, maybe it's a coincidence that the market turns the turbines off, just as the wind drops, and turns them on as the wind picks up.

I’ve provided you with plenty of references that explain how the market works.
Not that it matters, but you haven't put any links up to these references, that you speak of,
Do you know how to copy and paste, or put links up, I've never seen you do either of those.
I’m not going to trawl them for sound bites that answer a question which is nonsensical if you understand the market structure.
I have no interest in the market structure, it's you that brought it in as the straw man, when you make the cock up of saying low turbine output is not down to low wind speeds.

Please don’t troll me.
Remember this, and you say I'm trolling you

Yes, you are correct, only new being banned, my bad ...........

Did you read it in the Express?

I only answer your posts that involve me, just don't reply, or you could put me on ignore.

@Tappet, point taken.

EDIT, Here are some more charts, high pressure over UK, low winds over the whole of UK,
and next to FA on the grid wind dial, explain how that's due to the market
Taken on 28/03/2022

 

[mechanicalhorsetrough]

If I had my way the choice of locations for charge posts would have been determined by engineering decisions, with limited consultation rather than the full-blown 'public meetings, newspaper adverts and resident surveys' route we were forced to follow.

It's politics though innit... worse than that, it's small town local Councillor politics...
..and those Councillors get voted in/out periodically and they don't like experts such as traffic engineers telling them that schemes are being introduced and public monies are being spent without them having a chance to grandstand and 'represent the people' in a fluffy public engagement exercise...



Public consultation on yellow lines, or any form of on-street parking restriction, is part of a statutory process that MUST be followed. If a Council has just painted yellow lines without following that 21 day minimum consultation process, which includes advertising parking proposals in the local paper, then the yellow lines would be classed as illegal road markings and could be ignored (and safely challenged at the Traffic Penalty Tribunal)

For my sins this stuff was my bread and butter at the Council as I was in charge of implementing new parking restrictions on-street and dealing with the whole legal process. @mechanicalhorsetrough Mine was a Tory Council btw

I hope you’ve paid a heavy price for your sins!

 

[Robs dad]

I hope you’ve paid a heavy price for your sins!

Oh I dunno... I used it to my advantage a couple of times and managed to squeeze in a load of yellow lines on the street alongside where I live as parents at a local school were causing mayhem for through traffic.... that was the formal justification...

But those parents were turning up anytime from just before 8am onwards and banging car doors and dragging screaming kids off to the 'breakfast clubs' that start before lesson times... right by my bedroom window, the ignorant sods.... and in the afternoon they'd turn up a good hour before school pick-up, just to grab the best parking spaces and in Summer in particular would stand and natter with other parents with nothing better to do than waste an hour each day... A long stretch of double yellow both sides has sorted those hags out and they now park in adjacent streets annoying somebody else while I can have my lie-in in peace for the last 10+ years....

 

[bobthebuilder]

Buried in your largely unintelligible babble, there’s a nugget

I have no interest in the market structure,

If you have no interest understanding the market structure, how can you possibly refute my analysis? You’re arguing from a position of pig ignorance.

It is you that has put up a strawman based in a single source of information. I’ve provided an explanation of your observations supported by plenty of supporting documents. I’m not going hunting for sound bite; do your own research.

You’ve already been found out on this thread recently, when you professed that internal combustion engined cars are going to be banned in 2030. Of course, you tried to laugh that off “with my bad” when in fact it’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation.

The laughable thing is that you have no stake in this debate. You’ve admitted you’re never going to buy an electric car because you can’t afford one. By the time there’s no choice you’re unlikely to have a licence.

 

[harrythebastard]

Nothing at present would make me buy one.
I was talking to a Danish mate this week whose company has just moved to new premises on the outskirts of Copenhagen.
The company has put 75 charging points in the company car park.
Great stuff for the bright young things with electric cars, but the reality of the situation hits hard when they leave work to go home.
Most live in the city centre in apartments with no allocated parking slots or charging ports.
There are any number of apps showing available charging stations, but the reality is that in a busy city most are occupied before you get there.
He tells me that they tell him spending an hour and a half after work to park is not why they bought one.
Most now carry a fold up bike in the boot to get home after parking up for the night.
Not an ideal way to end a stressful working day.
I consider Denmark light years ahead of Europe in many things certainly in transportation, but if this is the reality then it is many decades away in French and other continental cities.
Unless you have your own house/flat with your own drive/parking place then forget it.

 

[Conniesdad]

Nothing at present would make me buy one.
I was talking to a Danish mate this week whose company has just moved to new premises on the outskirts of Copenhagen.
The company has put 75 charging points in the company car park.
Great stuff for the bright young things with electric cars, but the reality of the situation hits hard when they leave work to go home.
Most live in the city centre in apartments with no allocated parking slots or charging ports.
There are any number of apps showing available charging stations, but the reality is that in a busy city most are occupied before you get there.
He tells me that they tell him spending an hour and a half after work to park is not why they bought one.
Most now carry a fold up bike in the boot to get home after parking up for the night.
Not an ideal way to end a stressful working day.
I consider Denmark light years ahead of Europe in many things certainly in transportation, but if this is the reality then it is many decades away in French and other continental cities.
Unless you have your own house/flat with your own drive/parking place then forget it.

Why don't they charge the cars during the day, or are there too many cars for points?

 

[tgo]

Why don't they charge the cars during the day, or are there too many cars for points?

I was wondering that

 

[harrythebastard]

I think they do, 75 charging points is very generous but it may be more to do with the lifestyle of this generation, and perhaps the actual range as experienced by the owners.
As opposed to the 'up to' mileage claimed by the constructors.
It is within my knowledge that a Tesla 3 was trialled by a Police Force to the east of London in a response role and lasted 93 miles.
Not what was claimed in the trade press and media, and what is being shouted from the rooftops.
Perhaps it was a dodgy one, but I believe the garage man on this.
The practicalities of owning one in an urban environment are a long way from being solved yet.
True range and recharging are the issues for me.

 

[CaptainRidiculous]

I think they do, 75 charging points is very generous but it may be more to do with the lifestyle of this generation, and perhaps the actual range as experienced by the owners.
As opposed to the 'up to' mileage claimed by the constructors.
It is within my knowledge that a Tesla 3 was trialled by a Police Force to the east of London in a response role and lasted 93 miles.
Not what was claimed in the trade press and media, and what is being shouted from the rooftops.
Perhaps it was a dodgy one, but I believe the garage man on this.
The practicalities of owning one in an urban environment are a long way from being solved yet.
True range and recharging are the issues for me.

I'm sure if you are in traffic, crawling along, with wipers, lights, heater, radio etc going on, your mileage would be, at best average. Same as in a ICE vehicle.
Also, what difference does Denmark make - mmm, how does the icy cold affect the battery life?
Now, if you DO come to a halt, what would the AA do? they can hardly turn up with a gallon of electricity to get you home.

edit to ask... For the likes of @BossHogg . How long are your vehicles off the road between shifts?
Doesn't make sense for emergency vehicles to be stuck in a charging bay for a few hours when they should be out working.

 

[harrythebastard]

Dunno is the quick answer.
Having experienced a number of winters there, I can tell you that the wind whipping in off the Baltic gets very cold, so the heater will always be on.
Between -3 and -8 in the morning for most of January when we were there last.
It is always grey skies and in certain months gets dark around 2.30 to 3pm, and the law also says that headlights should be on all the time.
Even in daylight in the summer.
Denmark is not actually a large country, only 300 odd kms from the Baltic coast across to the North Sea.
But it does have fantastic public transport, even in rural areas.

 

[anglo]

If you have no interest understanding the market structure, how can you possibly refute my analysis? You’re arguing from a position of pig ignorance.

It is you that has put up a strawman based in a single source of information. I’ve provided an explanation of your observations supported by plenty of supporting documents. I’m not going hunting for sound bite; do your own research.

You’ve already been found out on this thread recently, when you professed that internal combustion engined cars are going to be banned in 2030. Of course, you tried to laugh that off “with my bad” when in fact it’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation.

The laughable thing is that you have no stake in this debate. You’ve admitted you’re never going to buy an electric car because you can’t afford one. By the time there’s no choice you’re unlikely to have a licence.

Buried in your largely unintelligible babble, there’s a nugget
Really

If you have no interest understanding the market structure, how can you possibly refute my analysis? You’re arguing from a position of pig ignorance.
Actually, I understand how the Capacity market works, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that low wind means low output from wind turbines, an engineer of any standing would understand that fact, in other words, I'm saying you are not an engineer's ********.

It is you that has put up a strawman based in a single source of information.
That information comes from Gridwatch, Data courtesy of Elexon portal and Sheffield University,
These are the people you are saying are wrong,

The link is,

G. B. National Grid status

www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk

I’ve provided an explanation of your observations supported by plenty of supporting documents.
You are being economical with the truth again, you have not put up supporting documents via links.
I believe you can't copy and paste, or put up links
I’m not going hunting for sound bite;
Neither am I,
Sound bite
A short extract from a recorded interview or speech, chosen for its succinctness or concision.
I prefer the written word

The laughable thing is that you have no stake in this debate.
Considering it was one of my posts that started this debate, I think I have.

You’ve admitted you’re never going to buy an electric car because you can’t afford one. By the time there’s no choice you’re unlikely to have a licence.
That's true, at least you can get something right.


You’ve already been found out on this thread recently, when you professed that internal combustion engined cars are going to be banned in 2030. Of course, you tried to laugh that off “with my bad” when in fact it’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation.
You really are stupid, making an error in that post doesn't invalidate the fact that if there is low wind
over the UK, the output of the wind turbines is also low.

Yesterday I put on graphs that showed a brisk wind and high wind turbine output, this morning the wind had dropped and as if by magic, the output of the wind turbines dropped.
Now the grid is using a large amount of that ungreen gas.
NO NO NO, it's the market, says bobthebullsitter,

 

[Goutyfrub]

Buried in your largely unintelligible babble, there’s a nugget
Really

If you have no interest understanding the market structure, how can you possibly refute my analysis? You’re arguing from a position of pig ignorance.
Actually, I understand how the Capacity market works, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that low wind means low output from wind turbines, an engineer of any standing would understand that fact, in other words, I'm saying you are not an engineer's ********.

It is you that has put up a strawman based in a single source of information.
That information comes from Gridwatch, Data courtesy of Elexon portal and Sheffield University,
These are the people you are saying are wrong,View attachment 662834
The link is,

G. B. National Grid status

www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk

I’ve provided an explanation of your observations supported by plenty of supporting documents.
You are being economical with the truth again, you have not put up supporting documents via links.
I believe you can't copy and paste, or put up links
I’m not going hunting for sound bite;
Neither am I,
Sound bite
A short extract from a recorded interview or speech, chosen for its succinctness or concision.
I prefer the written word

The laughable thing is that you have no stake in this debate.
Considering it was one of my posts that started this debate, I think I have.

You’ve admitted you’re never going to buy an electric car because you can’t afford one. By the time there’s no choice you’re unlikely to have a licence.
That's true, at least you can get something right.


You’ve already been found out on this thread recently, when you professed that internal combustion engined cars are going to be banned in 2030. Of course, you tried to laugh that off “with my bad” when in fact it’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation.
You really are stupid, making an error in that post doesn't invalidate the fact that if there is low wind
over the UK, the output of the wind turbines is also low.

Yesterday I put on graphs that showed a brisk wind and high wind turbine output, this morning the wind had dropped and as if by magic, the output of the wind turbines dropped.
Now the grid is using a large amount of that ungreen gas.
NO NO NO, it's the market, says bobthebullsitter,

View attachment 662842

View attachment 662843

He means business this time he has got the dials back out !

 

[bobthebuilder]

Buried in your largely unintelligible babble, there’s a nugget
Really

If you have no interest understanding the market structure, how can you possibly refute my analysis? You’re arguing from a position of pig ignorance.
Actually, I understand how the Capacity market works, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that low wind means low output from wind turbines, an engineer of any standing would understand that fact, in other words, I'm saying you are not an engineer's ********.

It is you that has put up a strawman based in a single source of information.
That information comes from Gridwatch, Data courtesy of Elexon portal and Sheffield University,
These are the people you are saying are wrong,View attachment 662834
The link is,

G. B. National Grid status

www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk

I’ve provided an explanation of your observations supported by plenty of supporting documents.
You are being economical with the truth again, you have not put up supporting documents via links.
I believe you can't copy and paste, or put up links
I’m not going hunting for sound bite;
Neither am I,
Sound bite
A short extract from a recorded interview or speech, chosen for its succinctness or concision.
I prefer the written word

The laughable thing is that you have no stake in this debate.
Considering it was one of my posts that started this debate, I think I have.

You’ve admitted you’re never going to buy an electric car because you can’t afford one. By the time there’s no choice you’re unlikely to have a licence.
That's true, at least you can get something right.


You’ve already been found out on this thread recently, when you professed that internal combustion engined cars are going to be banned in 2030. Of course, you tried to laugh that off “with my bad” when in fact it’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation.
You really are stupid, making an error in that post doesn't invalidate the fact that if there is low wind
over the UK, the output of the wind turbines is also low.

Yesterday I put on graphs that showed a brisk wind and high wind turbine output, this morning the wind had dropped and as if by magic, the output of the wind turbines dropped.
Now the grid is using a large amount of that ungreen gas.
NO NO NO, it's the market, says bobthebullsitter,

View attachment 662842

View attachment 662843

Now your making stuff up. I’ve put loads of links to papers, documents and analysis that describe the structure of the market, how it operates and how and why wind can only sell into a the demand market. You’ve obviously never read any of them.

Not have I ever suggested that wind output does not drop as wind speed declines. In fact, I addressed that months ago with links to Vesta’s design guides which show how to manage this (basically more turbines, further offshore and the right mix of turbines). Neither have I ever suggested that you can’t see gas coming on line as wind power drops. You can; its obvious on the grid watch dials.

But you can also tell a lot more from those dials. You can see occasions when demand is low, around the capacity of base load so neither gas nor wind are generating because there’s no demand for it.

You can see the proportion of power generated by the wind / gas mix declines at night as demand decreases down to the capacity market level, particularly in summer months.

You can see that power supplied by the nuclear / coal / biofuel mix is near constant and varies slowly and that the inter-connectors always run (to use your term) “hot”. That’s the capacity market operating.

In other words, you can see the electricity market working as it’s designed to do (noting you can’t see the balancing market operating because the data is macro).

As for your “bad” about electric cars being banned in 2030, as I said before, it could be a genuine mistake of language or it could be that you were operating under the false impression that ICE cars will all go in 2030. If it’s the latter, then it destroys any credibility you have on this thread. Not that you have much…

 

[PepperSeaDog]

Enough of this scientific nonsense, can we go back to "f*** off electro hippie you can pry my V6 out of my cold dead hands" please?

 

[anglo]

Not have I ever suggested that wind output does not drop as wind speed declines. In fact, I addressed that months ago with links to Vesta’s design guides which show how to manage this (basically more turbines, further offshore and the right mix of turbines). Neither have I ever suggested that you can’t see gas coming on line as wind power drops. You can; its obvious on the grid watch dials.

Not have I ever suggested that wind output does not drop as wind speed declines.
So, the decline in wind turbine output shown on the wind output dial, is not due to the market
shutting down the wind turbines, it due to falling wind speeds, as in no wind to drive the wind turbines.
Like today, as below.

Neither have I ever suggested that you can’t see gas coming on line as wind power drops.
So, that as the wind drops is not down to the market turning the wind turbines off,
it is due to the variations in wind speed
You can; its obvious on the grid watch dials.
Didn't you say the dials, {I paraphrase} are a load of shit, I see now you are using them.

I also stated that there are long periods of low wind, which you disputed, below
of the running monthly chart dated 11/5/2022 at 14:15-22 hrs
If you look between day 24 and onwards to day 04, you will see a period of low wind,

Like I said, no wind to drive the wind turbines, I didn't say there was no wind.
If the wind speed is below the cut in speed of the turbines, then there is no wind to
drive the turbines, looking at the above chart, there isn't many of the 11000 wind
turbines running above cut in speed between the24th and the 4th