What would make you buy an electric car?

Apologies for the thread drift but I found this interesting. I like my Tesla and the autopilot. Self driving seems to work well, within the limits that I use it. It looks to me like a big part of vehicle development is moving towards autonomous driving. That IMHO will be the real death knell for personal vehicle ownership and however they are powered that is coming fast.

 

exbluejob

LE
Book Reviewer
Apologies for the thread drift but I found this interesting. I like my Tesla and the autopilot. Self driving seems to work well, within the limits that I use it. It looks to me like a big part of vehicle development is moving towards autonomous driving. That IMHO will be the real death knell for personal vehicle ownership and however they are powered that is coming fast.

Said it before and the number of companies walking away from 'self drive' vehicles brings it home. The safety case work is an absolute crippler.
 
I’m sure it’s a nightmare to do but are there companies walking away from it.
I think he caught the @anglo disease and is posting bollocks he can’t substantiate.

All of the major global car manufacturers plus several of the major tech companies have autonomous vehicle programmes.

One of the key drivers is the safety case, but in reverse. If autonomous vehicles really do offer an accident free world, then they don’t need to make vehicles that can survive crashes. They don’t need to invest in chasing safety ratings and can strip a lot of weight out of cars.

The only company I can find who have suspended work is Uber, but they weren’t developing native self-driving cars. Rather, they were putting self-driving pods on to existing cars (Volvo XC90 IIRC).
 

clanky

War Hero
the effects of reduced private car ownership are going to be so far reaching. I think it frightens a lot of people, especially those who identify themselves by their ability to drive a car. I notice that my youngest sons cohort really don't worry about joining the driving population. I suspect a significant proportion of the driving population will age out over the next few years.
 
I think he caught the @anglo disease and is posting bollocks he can’t substantiate.

All of the major global car manufacturers plus several of the major tech companies have autonomous vehicle programmes.

One of the key drivers is the safety case, but in reverse. If autonomous vehicles really do offer an accident free world, then they don’t need to make vehicles that can survive crashes. They don’t need to invest in chasing safety ratings and can strip a lot of weight out of cars.

The only company I can find who have suspended work is Uber, but they weren’t developing native self-driving cars. Rather, they were putting self-driving pods on to existing cars (Volvo XC90 IIRC).
I did find the below and although it’s not really that cut and dried it does show a different view. Not sure how partisan the article is though. Waymo (google) seems to be still be leading the pack. I was surprised to see that Tesla is ranked some way down the list of developers given that they have a limited performance self driving vehicle in production. I doubt it will become exclusive while I’m still around which is just as well as I love driving.

 
Last edited:

exbluejob

LE
Book Reviewer
I have been keenly watching this development as its closely associated with developments in my industry concerning drones. Just had a very quick google and here is Mercedes walking away last year: Mercedes says it can't win race for autonomous driving, bows out
Hmmm. For sure not fully autonomous, but looks like they are still in the game.

 

exbluejob

LE
Book Reviewer
Hmmm. For sure not fully autonomous, but looks like they are still in the game.

I thought we were talking about level 5 fully autonomous vehicles.
 
I thought we were talking about level 5 fully autonomous vehicles.
Well I didn’t know there were levels until an hour ago. School day. So the Tesla et al is level 3. Got it. I’d be surprised if they are all going to stop there though.

Level 5 will be the icing on the cake for Ubers of the world.
 
I have been keenly watching this development as its closely associated with developments in my industry concerning drones. Just had a very quick google and here is Mercedes walking away last year: Mercedes says it can't win race for autonomous driving, bows out
Yes but that because the don’t see a profit in the shared ownership / pay as you go model that will almost inevitably be how Level 5 autonomous vehicles will be purchased. They’re still working on Level 4 autonomy.

IMHO the game changer in autonomy will come from a disruptive innovator. The big premium brands will get caught with the trousers down just as they did by Tesla. May even be a Chinese disruptor.
 
I dunno. I have a reservation for an F-150 Lightning. But I am strongly considering jacking it in and surrendering the reservation. The original attraction was a) excellent (e)mpg b) it can power my house in the event of an outage and c) it’s VERY powerful. Being out in the sticks, the outage concern is a real one, and I spent last Christmas pulling vehicles out of ditches in a power outage with my current diesel truck. But that will be gone in about 18 months, the boy is buying it off me.

But what if I get home after a trip in the Lightning, battery’s at 20%, and then there’s an outage? Dead in the water. We have a large propane tank, so a propane gene to run the house will run about $8K, all in. The new truck is probably $70-$80K. But I could buy a really nice used Range Rover for half of that. That’s a metric fcuk ton of gas mileage to make up.

Still on the fence, but tempted to bin the electric truck. Part of it is in the heart rather than the head. There’s no soul in a battery truck like a 5.0 V8. It wouldn’t rumble. It wouldn’t stir the loins like my Jag does. I’ll admit to really like driving an $80K car that I paid $13K for. If I can do the same with a RR (albeit more like $35-40K), then someone else has taken the depreciation hit on a $100K plus motor.

I might be missing something, and no decisions need be made yet.
 
Yes but that because the don’t see a profit in the shared ownership / pay as you go model that will almost inevitably be how Level 5 autonomous vehicles will be purchased. They’re still working on Level 4 autonomy.

IMHO the game changer in autonomy will come from a disruptive innovator. The big premium brands will get caught with the trousers down just as they did by Tesla. May even be a Chinese disruptor.
You may be right but the big brands got seriously caught out by Tesla. I don’t think they will sleep so soundly going forward.
 
I dunno. I have a reservation for an F-150 Lightning. But I am strongly considering jacking it in and surrendering the reservation. The original attraction was a) excellent (e)mpg b) it can power my house in the event of an outage and c) it’s VERY powerful. Being out in the sticks, the outage concern is a real one, and I spent last Christmas pulling vehicles out of ditches in a power outage with my current diesel truck. But that will be gone in about 18 months, the boy is buying it off me.

But what if I get home after a trip in the Lightning, battery’s at 20%, and then there’s an outage? Dead in the water. We have a large propane tank, so a propane gene to run the house will run about $8K, all in. The new truck is probably $70-$80K. But I could buy a really nice used Range Rover for half of that. That’s a metric fcuk ton of gas mileage to make up.

Still on the fence, but tempted to bin the electric truck. Part of it is in the heart rather than the head. There’s no soul in a battery truck like a 5.0 V8. It wouldn’t rumble. It wouldn’t stir the loins like my Jag does. I’ll admit to really like driving an $80K car that I paid $13K for. If I can do the same with a RR (albeit more like $35-40K), then someone else has taken the depreciation hit on a $100K plus motor.

I might be missing something, and no decisions need be made yet.
I’m not sure what is going on with used vehicles. We are now being asked for $80k for used Transits (list is around $60k new, but you can’t get them) also $10k of that is because we pay cash for our vehicles, and that’s to make up for the interest on the loan the dealership will be losing. With my sons Ranger the dealer has asked him already if he wants to sell it, it’s about three months old.

If you do decide to get out of the Lightening leaving it late to do something, you may well be able to get some leverage out of your place in the line up. Who knew a new car would be an investment opportunity.
 
I dunno. I have a reservation for an F-150 Lightning. But I am strongly considering jacking it in and surrendering the reservation. The original attraction was a) excellent (e)mpg b) it can power my house in the event of an outage and c) it’s VERY powerful. Being out in the sticks, the outage concern is a real one, and I spent last Christmas pulling vehicles out of ditches in a power outage with my current diesel truck. But that will be gone in about 18 months, the boy is buying it off me.

But what if I get home after a trip in the Lightning, battery’s at 20%, and then there’s an outage? Dead in the water. We have a large propane tank, so a propane gene to run the house will run about $8K, all in. The new truck is probably $70-$80K. But I could buy a really nice used Range Rover for half of that. That’s a metric fcuk ton of gas mileage to make up.

Still on the fence, but tempted to bin the electric truck. Part of it is in the heart rather than the head. There’s no soul in a battery truck like a 5.0 V8. It wouldn’t rumble. It wouldn’t stir the loins like my Jag does. I’ll admit to really like driving an $80K car that I paid $13K for. If I can do the same with a RR (albeit more like $35-40K), then someone else has taken the depreciation hit on a $100K plus motor.

I might be missing something, and no decisions need be made yet.
I’m sure you’re used to it with the truck but our Range Rover Sport was $130 Cdn to fill up from 1/4 tank. I didn’t like that bit.
 
I’m sure you’re used to it with the truck but our Range Rover Sport was $130 Cdn to fill up from 1/4 tank. I didn’t like that bit.

It’s about $70 US to fill up the F-250 currently. Bizarrely, the Jag is pocket change to fill up. I’ve been doing it about 3/8 of a tank, premium gas, and it’s like $30, tops. Tiny fuel tank.

But again, I’d be transferring the fuel bill to the leccy bill with the Lightning. Granted, a lot less, but still, increasing the utility bills, and I‘m assuming charging at a public charging point is significantly more expensive.

I’m perhaps thinking that in 5 years time, the market will have settled down, electric trucks will be commonplace, as will charing points, the Lighting Mk 2 will be out, and perhaps that’s a more prudent time to buy one. But maybe I’m just pushing the inevitable to the right, hoping it will get cheaper, but actually doesn’t.
 

exbluejob

LE
Book Reviewer
Well I didn’t know there were levels until an hour ago. School day. So the Tesla et al is level 3. Got it. I’d be surprised if they are all going to stop there though.

Level 5 will be the icing on the cake for Ubers of the world.
I'll write more about level 5 later, if there is any interest but for now, in regards to the safety case something to think about:
In order to make it to level 5 autonomy, the software is going to have to improve. It's going to have to be better than any human at driving, making decisions, and going to where it needs to safely without any need for a human to intervene or without any incident. The dataset will need to catch 99.999+% of all cases on the road. It will have to be able to recognize almost every object on the earth, including road signs, vehicles, people, animals, weather – anything, and know how to react to it.
The software will also need to be able to be excellent at adjusting to situations. In a busy street with people walking around, it will need to drive a little more cautiously. Where it doesn't quite have full visibility, or there is an unprotected left/right turn, it will need to know to creep forward and gather more information while maintaining safety. It will need to perfectly calculate when it can go for a turn without causing an accident.
The different styles of roads will need to be solved as well. It will need to be able to drive on the right side of the road and the left side of the road.

Insurance is going to be very interesting, if there is an accident or fatality who is responsible, the driver? The manufacturer? The software? Big cans of worms and I suspect a rabbit hole.
 
I thought we were talking about level 5 fully autonomous vehicles.
Well I didn’t know there were levels until an hour ago. School day. So the Tesla et al is level 3. Got it. I’d be surprised if they are all going to stop there though.

Level 5 will be the icing on the cake for Ubers of the world.
Different "scale", but the same technology . . . Did you see those autonomous delivery "boxes" ?!

Maybe half the size of a washing machine. Just the right hight for a dog to pee on, or for folk to trip over :( .

White. Lights and black "visor" face, with antenna at the back.

Can't remember which, but the product from one of the Baltic States . . . Estonia ?!

They are trundling around the footpaths in one town in England . . . I don't think it was the ubiquitous Milton Keynes.

Fully autonomous. Avoids street furniture. Learning it's routes, and to differentiate between obstructions.

The physical size, and the speeds may be different from automobiles, but the technology must be eminently transferable.
 
Last edited:
I'll write more about level 5 later, if there is any interest but for now, in regards to the safety case something to think about:
In order to make it to level 5 autonomy, the software is going to have to improve. It's going to have to be better than any human at driving, making decisions, and going to where it needs to safely without any need for a human to intervene or without any incident. The dataset will need to catch 99.999+% of all cases on the road. It will have to be able to recognize almost every object on the earth, including road signs, vehicles, people, animals, weather – anything, and know how to react to it.
The software will also need to be able to be excellent at adjusting to situations. In a busy street with people walking around, it will need to drive a little more cautiously. Where it doesn't quite have full visibility, or there is an unprotected left/right turn, it will need to know to creep forward and gather more information while maintaining safety. It will need to perfectly calculate when it can go for a turn without causing an accident.
The different styles of roads will need to be solved as well. It will need to be able to drive on the right side of the road and the left side of the road.

Insurance is going to be very interesting, if there is an accident or fatality who is responsible, the driver? The manufacturer? The software? Big cans of worms and I suspect a rabbit hole.
All that assumes that your autonomous car will replace a conventional car. I think that’s highly unlikely certainly in the (relatively) near term.

We’re far more likely to see automation start with city cars that are restricted to limited routes. Cars operating on a pay for usage model, potentially on routes on which other cars are banned. That way, we significantly reduce the learning requirement. Think Citroen Ami but self driving rather than Mercedes S class piling along the autobahn driving itself.

IMHO we’re going to see huge changes in the way we approach personal transport over the next 20 years. It will start in cities first; look at the penetration of Zity in Madrid and Paris. Not autonomous, but rapidly introducing small electric cars into cities on a PAYG basis. When you consider that most of Zity’s members neither want to drive nor own a car, there’s your opening market.
 

Latest Threads

Top