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What now for the EU ?


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It's becoming increasingly noticeable that for some while, all the noise, mood music and behind the scenes briefs to the press about whether things are hopeful, or woeful is all coming out of the EU camp.

Not much from Frost, bar the odd throw away comment.

This is encouraging. Just a matter of days to go.


Already posted 200 odd pages ago, but this is the stark alternative reality for the Paddies and goods vehicles from Rosslare.

To Roscoff 17 hours, St Nazaire 21 hours, Cherbourg 18hours, Dieppe 26 hours, Le Havre 23 hours and for any produce heading for northern Europe it will be 34 hours on the boat to Zeebrugge or 36 to Rotterdam.

Or you could just do 9 hours from there to Bristol instead, say 5 or 6 driving to Dover then the ferry and be in Calais 15 or 16 hours later max, as against the timings above.

(No dogging on the boats though)

And when you get to Roscoff you are at the arrse end of the universe. Heck, it's beyond even Rennes!
I could, but doubt I will have time to do the calculations before the weekend to be honest.
It doesn't really effect my work so haven't looked at it in any detail.

As in previous discussions it would be the Irish economy that would be crippled first.
The relative cost increases for running vehicles in to Belgium or even the Netherlands are much less than the penalty of having to do Cork to Rosslare (for the Irish)

Assuming Zeebrugge or Ostend the time and cost penalties aren't that severe. Probably looking at 4-5 hour time penalty and a couple of hundred quid in costs (plucked from the air numbers)

View attachment 523623

Running across the Channel to France is the shortest most practical route and the cheapest depending on your end destination but there are alternatives.
Making it more expensive and difficult hurts the Paddies and the EU more than it hurts the UK (but it does hurt the UK)
Everyone knows it. I would like to think the EU isn't goingto hang the Irish out to dry on this though

So would I, but do you know what, I wouldn't put it past them.
I wonder if the EU will ask for an extension at the last moment
They undoubtedly will. The question you should be asking is, will BOJO grant it?
I'm not popping the champagne until 1 minute past midnight on 01 Jan 2021.


While that is (almost) a literal translation, as far as I am aware, the French don’t use the saying with the same sense.
Certainly people would understand the words, but the sense would be lost.
It would be put down either as a throwback to life in the trenches, or as a quaint phrase in that well-known French dialect ‘Le O Level Français’.
Or in my case le Google.
So would I, but do you know what, I wouldn't put it past them.

Sadly nor would I.
Probably in the hope that the irish will blame the UK.

Contrary to popular opinion around here I wish the Irish no ill on this one.

I don't deal with cross channel haulage but I know plenty of people within the industry who do.
On this side of the Channel hauliers are preparing in depth, so is the governement and also contrary to popular belief the preparations are serious and pretty well thought out.
The Irish are powerless to influence how 80% of their exports transit to market at New Year.

If the EU play hard ball the UK will adapt pretty quickly, the Irish are going to get hurt.
I suppose at some point somebody ought to think of the eastern european hauliers operating in the UK......

Failure to get Brexit trade deal would wipe extra 2% off UK output: OBR​

The independent body had already forecast Brexit would cost Britain 4% of GDP in the long run even if Britain secures a free trade agreement with the EU, compared to it staying in the bloc.

It looks to me like the EU are actually going for a no deal. The UK is in no position to negotiate and the only sensible thing to do is to beg forgiveness and ask to remain in the union. But that will not happen.


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