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What now for the EU ?

Tyk

LE
Germany can see itself being used as the magic money tree for the EU - which (I suspect) is why the German Constitutional Court issued its ruling. But, bearing in mind the parlous state of the Italian and Spanish economies, the EU can't afford to stop it's QE program - which is going to bring it into direct conflict with the constitutional court.

The problem that the ECJ has is that the German Constitutional Court is not challenging it's constitutional position; it is stating that the EU is acting outside of the bounds of the various European treaties. In other words, the ECJ is facing a legal challenge stating that the EU is ultra vires - acting beyond it's legal powers.

And that will be difficult for the ECJ to swerve round. It has to explain how the constitutional court's interpretation of the law is wrong. The fact that it hasn't thus far suggests to me that the German Constitutional Court has a strong case.

Wordsmith

I can't imagine the German Constitutional Court would have made a ruling on a whim, by its very nature I'd expect it to have done a deep dive into all the wording and looked very carefully at their documents and the EU treaties before it arrived at a decision. Not forgetting as the largest net contributor by a big lump if the EU took to ignoring the Germans it would not be pretty.
 

oldbaldy

LE
Moderator
They will have to compete against predatory Chinese pricing, something I had direct experience of when I worked in the tungsten industry a couple of decades ago. Chinese industry is state controlled, as is its pricing. The Chinese state has, for many years, subsidised exports in specific market sectors. The aim is to force Western manufacturers in that sector out of business by effectively selling at a loss into that sector. When sufficient Western companies in that sector have gone bust, the Chinese put up prices in that sector and move to the next one. It's how they got so much market share over the years - that and non-existent safety standards and (sometimes) $hit quality.

There was one ridiculous situation where I could buy the finished parts out of China cheaper than I could buy the powder to make them.

Cornwall may find itself up against the same thing if the Chinese see it as a threat.

Wordsmith
True but a lot of western economies found taking the cheapest option wasn't the best idea when supply chains fell apart earlier this year
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I can't imagine the German Constitutional Court would have made a ruling on a whim, by its very nature I'd expect it to have done a deep dive into all the wording and looked very carefully at their documents and the EU treaties before it arrived at a decision. Not forgetting as the largest net contributor by a big lump if the EU took to ignoring the Germans it would not be pretty.

I think the German constitution court picked its moment. Previous rulings have flagged that the EU is acting outside of its remit, but they've been more in the nature of a shot across the bows.

The latest ruling has the potential to be a torpedo below the waterline - it's strong stuff.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
True but a lot of western economies found taking the cheapest option wasn't the best idea when supply chains fell apart earlier this year

For a long time, Chinese imports were popular. Consumers were happy because of the low prices in the shops. What they were less observant in noticing was that the low prices meant the steady export of Western jobs to China. And into that mix China's current flexing of its military muscles and you see the reason for Trump's tariffs. Cripple the Chinese economy and the jobs come back, plus it has less money to spend on its military.

He might be four courses short of a banquet, but he's right on China.

Wordsmith
 
I can't imagine the German Constitutional Court would have made a ruling on a whim, by its very nature I'd expect it to have done a deep dive into all the wording and looked very carefully at their documents and the EU treaties before it arrived at a decision. Not forgetting as the largest net contributor by a big lump if the EU took to ignoring the Germans it would not be pretty.
Ah you see that’s the Rub, the Euro was the deal to get Germany reunified, but the ECB is not a German institution. Germany would get the blame if the Euro failed but effectively buying up national debt is bailing out. Now that Germany no longer has the chairmanship of the ECB the point is moot. The EU is rather running out of last chances because if the ECJ were to take on the German constitutional court It will be bloody and it’s a fairly important battle structurally that the EU must win.
it’s FP and immigration policy is in tatters, it can’t get agreement over Law issues, still maintains that National Sovereignty is at the core which is a total nonsense. It’s fighting itself.
 
For a long time, Chinese imports were popular. Consumers were happy because of the low prices in the shops. What they were less observant in noticing was that the low prices meant the steady export of Western jobs to China. And into that mix China's current flexing of its military muscles and you see the reason for Trump's tariffs. Cripple the Chinese economy and the jobs come back, plus it has less money to spend on its military.

He might be four courses short of a banquet, but he's right on China.

Wordsmith
In 2002 I had a conversation with the CEO of a US multi-national consumer goods company for whom I was doing some security consultancy.
The talk turned to China and the new factory they had opened there. Strangely, this particular company did not have a problem with illicit trade - copying and/or counterfeit.
The CEO explained the company had practically been forced to move into China so as not to lose a lucrative market share.
However, the Chinese, as they always did, demanded not only that a division of the company must be incorporated in the PRC, but they had to build a turn-key plant and transfer training and know-how into China: something so many other companies had complied with, then bitched about the flood of cheaper copies coming back the other way.
This chap, though, had thought about the problem seriously. He had set up a product range aimed specifically at the PRC market. He also explained he had set the China-based company up in such a way that ‘when, not if, the Chinese authorities announce they are taking over my company and we must leave everything to them - and they will one day - the structure is such we will only lose the Chinese market and the revenue from it. It will not, in any way, effect the pre-China global parent company. ‘
Foresight? Yes. Pragmatic? Certainly. Intelligent? This guy had it in spades. I thoroughly enjoyed working with him and his company for a number of years.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
As usual Skid, you fail to get to grips with the whole story. As an aside, I read something earlier today about Stormont voting in favour of the UK Fisheries Bill.


You have heard of the DUP and their fondness for following in the Conservatives footsteps, no matter where they go. Try and keep up.
Stormont's a sideshow for the forseeable future.

I would have thought you'd be busy enough preparing Kent for the invasion of Customs people, lorry drivers, car park builders and portacabin siting consultants

Only the other week uk gov were offering preferential routes, treatment and parking for Irish transport using the landbridge, if the irish interceded with Brussels, probably over the recent fishing offer.
 
I don't think it is/was compulsory; at least outside Germany. Well, I know it wasn't because I never had a foreign bank account on my first 2 overseas postings. I did for the Netherlands but only because I wanted phone, internet, etc and that was the route to go down.
Was that after bank cards were invented?
How else were you meant to live without a local bank?
 
You have heard of the DUP and their fondness for following in the Conservatives footsteps, no matter where they go. Try and keep up.
Stormont's a sideshow for the forseeable future.

I would have thought you'd be busy enough preparing Kent for the invasion of Customs people, lorry drivers, car park builders and portacabin siting consultants

Only the other week uk gov were offering preferential routes, treatment and parking for Irish transport using the landbridge, if the irish interceded with Brussels, probably over the recent fishing offer.

You are the Teasock and I claim my 5 Punts...

JB
 
The problem that the ECJ has is that the German Constitutional Court is not challenging it's constitutional position; it is stating that the EU is acting outside of the bounds of the various European treaties. In other words, the ECJ is facing a legal challenge stating that the EU is ultra vires - acting beyond it's legal powers.

And that will be difficult for the ECJ to swerve round.
Its never stopped them before!
 
He also explained he had set the China-based company up in such a way that ‘when, not if, the Chinese authorities announce they are taking over my company and we must leave everything to them - and they will one day -
I feverently hope the same happens to all the PRC investments and factories in Africa- and it will one day if history tells us anything.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
You've read the wrong post again, you one brain celled idiot
Try this
Not whilst they're firmly latched on to the EU tit and sucking hard, Hungary received about 5 billion Euro in 2018, equivalent to 2.5% of GDP.

It will take some strength to pull them off that particularly lucrative nipple...


Empty and meaningless comment from Orban then. Any other one note wonders out there admiring our Brexit nosedive?

Salvini is usually quoted as being a fan until he has to get up and apologise, reassuring his people that he's not ditching the Euro or thinking of leaving the Eu.
His fortunes have suffered of late.

That French Woman, Le Pen. She makes a lot of noise before getting a kicking at election (after election, and after election, like her dad)

Talk is cheap. I don't see any other Eu countries following our lead.
Not without losing a load of support.

You'd have thought after all this time, having seen the marvellous success we've made of Brexiting there would be people queuing up to join us.

Like during WW2, we could have brexit governments in exile all organising the freedom of their homelands. Removing the er Brussels belgian loafer from their necks.

Given the Brexit fondness for WW2, it'll be like early 1944, needing special passes to get anywhere near Dover.
 

Truxx

LE
They will have to compete against predatory Chinese pricing, something I had direct experience of when I worked in the tungsten industry a couple of decades ago. Chinese industry is state controlled, as is its pricing. The Chinese state has, for many years, subsidised exports in specific market sectors. The aim is to force Western manufacturers in that sector out of business by effectively selling at a loss into that sector. When sufficient Western companies in that sector have gone bust, the Chinese put up prices in that sector and move to the next one. It's how they got so much market share over the years - that and non-existent safety standards and (sometimes) $hit quality.

There was one ridiculous situation where I could buy the finished parts out of China cheaper than I could buy the powder to make them.

Cornwall may find itself up against the same thing if the Chinese see it as a threat.

Wordsmith
But in the n eu world order we can handle that by backing tne horses that we want to back. In any event the environmentally awate and otherwise right-on car consumer is likely to prefer something a little more home grown and a little less explpitative.
 

Truxx

LE
Empty and meaningless comment from Orban then. Any other one note wonders out there admiring our Brexit nosedive?

Salvini is usually quoted as being a fan until he has to get up and apologise, reassuring his people that he's not ditching the Euro or thinking of leaving the Eu.
His fortunes have suffered of late.

That French Woman, Le Pen. She makes a lot of noise before getting a kicking at election (after election, and after election, like her dad)

Talk is cheap. I don't see any other Eu countries following our lead.
Not without losing a load of support.

You'd have thought after all this time, having seen the marvellous success we've made of Brexiting there would be people queuing up to join us.

Like during WW2, we could have brexit governments in exile all organising the freedom of their homelands. Removing the er Brussels belgian loafer from their necks.

Given the Brexit fondness for WW2, it'll be like early 1944, needing special passes to get anywhere near Dover.
said an expert in empty amd meaningless comment.

as for Le Pen just watch her fortunes change the minute the fFrench fFishing fFleet get themselves permanently attached to the wall.
 
Talk is cheap. I don't see any other Eu countries following our lead.
Not without losing a load of support.
Thats no problem as they can all go down in the SS EUropa together when she hits the gigantic iceberg. The UK is in the only serviceable motorised lifeboat and is heading towards landfall giving a cheery wave to the doomed passengers on the ship.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Thats no problem as they can all go down in the SS EUropa together when she hits the gigantic iceberg. The UK is in the only serviceable motorised lifeboat and is heading towards landfall giving a cheery wave to the doomed passengers on the ship.

Other countries will sit on the fence until they see how the UK does outside of the EU. If we significantly outperform the EU, other countries will follow us out.

Which is why the EU is so determined to impose a deal on us that would cripple our economic prospects.

Wordsmith
 

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