What now for the EU ?

anglo

LE
The EU will march onward and upwards to glory, the UK on the other hand
will have plague and pestilence and all the firstborn will be marked for hell,
the UK will run out of bacon.
That's about it for now I'm off shopping
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Without that spending the system collapses..... I find it astonishing the EU doesn't load Germany with the bill for this before Merkel departs. The successors will have nothing like enough traction to sign off on something as big as that and cue electoral earthquake.
Germany can't be loaded with the bill. If Marcon gets these changes through, they will become EU law, which in turn will become domestic law. Which means individual countries will have to pick up the bill for all these wonderful ideas. As such, they will appear as a domestic cost, and not an "EU cost".

What the countries will be hit for in a couple of years are extra (EU) costs for structural funds as the UK stops paying in £8.6 billion a year net into the EU budget.

I have a strong conviction that the next 18 months will be enormous. Because the EU has to railroad through some very unlikable policies before the democratic situation can adjust to the new reality.
I doubt much will happen domestically within the EU in the next 12 months. They'll be fixated in agreeing a FTA with the EU. That'll pit the member states (who'll want a reasonable FTA to keep trade going) against the EU institutions - who'll want to punish the UK for having the temerity to leave their wonderful organisation.

Wordsmith
 
Germany can't be loaded with the bill. If Marcon gets these changes through, they will become EU law, which in turn will become domestic law. Which means individual countries will have to pick up the bill for all these wonderful ideas. As such, they will appear as a domestic cost, and not an "EU cost".

What the countries will be hit for in a couple of years are extra (EU) costs for structural funds as the UK stops paying in £8.6 billion a year net into the EU budget.



I doubt much will happen domestically within the EU in the next 12 months. They'll be fixated in agreeing a FTA with the EU. That'll pit the member states (who'll want a reasonable FTA to keep trade going) against the EU institutions - who'll want to punish the UK for having the temerity to leave their wonderful organisation.

Wordsmith
No they can't and hence why they need to go full speed with merkel still at the helm..... Any other time, I think your right about the next 12 months. But that sort of thing will serve as a useful distraction and within that process is a way to insert new conditions exactly what the commission and project wants to happen.

IF your member states want a FTA with the UK, then they will be asked to coalesce around the EU advancement. Salvini especially must be giving them nightmares and italian governments aren't the most stable, which makes the year/year and a half critical to the EUs future.
 

ThunderBox

On ROPS
On ROPs
I imagine the EU will not give us a good deal to show what happens when you leave the union (union he larrfs).

Hopefully Boris plays hardball, we leave without repaying and a no deal and get good deals from the US, South America and the East.

If the rest of the onion see’s the UK has done well they may well unpeel.

If Brexit is handled badly and we get a second rate deal and dubious ties to the EU whilst repaying all monies, it may be a bit different.

Assume Germany will just print more money to cover the deficit as they have form of that!
 

Grownup_Rafbrat

LE
Book Reviewer
In all honesty I think UK has dodged more than a bullet. There is an incoming Artillery shell and it is now whistling a lot louder due to us finally getting Brexit. Deutsche bank is currently using a 15 foot snorkel to be able to breathe through the shit that it's in. When they do finally collapse we are looking at a world wide shock wave.
Brilliant snorkel analogy.
 
Personally I couldn't care less what happens to the EU now we are finally leaving the rat infested hellhole. They can keep their migrants, bail out poor countries, collapse the euro,
We have full control of our borders, not being party to the Schengen agreement, and we aren't a Euro currency.

We'll trade with the world, make our own laws, say who is allowed in our country and who can use the NHS and claim benefits etc.
We will trade with the world on terms appropriate to our new status as a bit player has been, not as part of the biggest trading block on the planet. And we do not have sufficient negotiating capacity to secure decent deals in anything like the near future.

The fact "we" can make our own laws isn't necessarily A Good Thing; Johnson is already talking about reducing the powers of the Judiciary, and reducing / removing workers rights.




Be careful what you wish for.
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
We have full control of our borders, not being party to the Schengen agreement, and we aren't a Euro currency.



We will trade with the world on terms appropriate to our new status as a bit player has been, not as part of the biggest trading block on the planet. And we do not have sufficient negotiating capacity to secure decent deals in anything like the near future.

The fact "we" can make our own laws isn't necessarily A Good Thing; Johnson is already talking about reducing the powers of the Judiciary, and reducing / removing workers rights.




Be careful what you wish for.
1. Why do you believe that a trade agreement is inherently zero sum?
2. Whatever Johnson does can be reversed by a future administration if the electorate don't like it or enhanced if it does. What's so bad about that?
 

Dredd

LE
When we go the Krauts are very exposed as the only remaining net paymasters of the EU, but as above are deep in the cacky themselves. The other major states will have to up contributions to cover the shortfall, which may well be the straws that break their backs. Of the medium tier states Spain and Greece are only afloat because of the EU. The brighter players like Denmark and Sweden may well look and us and Norway and bugger off themselves asap. That leaves a lot on non-contributing minnows between the Paddies and Vlad the Impaler that will be wondering what comes next, the bailiffs probably.

Oh dear, what a shame.
Not strictly true . . .


. . . but not far off it.

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Germany is by far the largest net contributor but France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, Denmark, Ireland and Finland all put in more than they get back. Cyprus and Spain are neither. Which just leaves 15 who are net beneficiaries, from a lesser to greater degree. Interestingly the country that benefits the most is Poland which is being warned that planned changes to the judiciary may be the slippery slope to being kicked back out again.

Fun times ahead.
 
1. Why do you believe that a trade agreement is inherently zero sum?
2. Whatever Johnson does can be reversed by a future administration if the electorate don't like it or enhanced if it does. What's so bad about that?
What makes you think I believe a trade deal will be zero sum?

And yes, it is possible that whatever he does can be reversed, but not for five years.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I imagine the EU will not give us a good deal to show what happens when you leave the union (union he larrfs).
You might be surprised on that. The EU now know BoJo has the majority to ram what he likes through parliament. If the EU offer a cr*p deal, they could end up with BoJo exiting on WTO terms, plus signing FTAs with the EU's rivals.

The other thing is that Brexit is now guaranteed. Before it was a theoretical risk and the EU was keen to point out the pitfalls. Now the EU's member states are aware it is going ahead and that not agreeing a FTA fair to both sides would hit their own economies.

There are a lot of GE's coming up on the continent over the next couple of years. The current governments won't want their chances of re-election spoiled by a Brexit inspired slowdown in their domestic economies.

Wordsmith
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
IMHO, the EU will try over the next couple of years to show that they still have a lot of clout round the world even though they have lost a major player. The EU still has Germany, France and Italy as hard hitters but losing the UK is a major body blow to their prestige.

They now have a major competitor on their doorstep and how the closed shop EU deals with that will set their course to either success or break up.
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
What makes you think I believe a trade deal will be zero sum?

And yes, it is possible that whatever he does can be reversed, but not for five years.
1. Because apparently no-one's going to give us a decent deal because we're not in the EU.
2. If that's the industrial/environmental settlement that people want, why can't they have it?
 
And yes, it is possible that whatever he does can be reversed, but not for five years.
How many elections have we had in the last 5 years?
 

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