What Now For A Two-State Solution?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Arandale, Feb 4, 2011.

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  1. Following the crushing of the 1973 united determination by several Arab States in cahoots with the Palestinians to annihilate the State of Israel led to the 1974 PLO Declaration which determined an alternative approach to achieving their goal.

    This involved offering the Western powers via back channels certain promises to reign in Palestinian acts of terror perpetrated in the West in exchange for ‘international assistance’ to prosecute the so-called land for peace initiative.

    But with the events unfolding throughout the Middle East with the prospects of the Domino effect becoming a reality, surely we should be reassessing whether an imagined imposed peace settlement would genuinely stabilise or destabilise the region contrary to the perceived outcome.

    We have been assured that forcing Israel to make painful concessions will eventually lead to our desired outcome. One where it produces two separate states living peacefully side by side resulting in peace and stability.

    What we have blindly refused to acknowledge is that where the Western powers have desired a reduction in terror and counter terrorist reaction, relative peace and the onset of democratic governance and institutions within the so-called Palestinian territories have had the contra effect.

    Every concession that Israel has made has not been reciprocated by the Palestinians with their own promised concessions toward peace, instead it has been rewarded with some new and vicious atrocity.

    A prime example was Sharon’s determination to concede to evicting the settlers and abandoning the settlements in response to the Palestinian’s assertion that all they wanted was for the Israeli’s to withdraw to behind pre-1967 borders to create a viable separate Palestinian State

    In the Negev Gaza southern region, that is precisely what happened and with what reciprocation?

    Before the dust had even settled from the stampede of the settlers back behind the pre-1967 borders the Kassam missiles started to arrive hitting residential and commercial complexes and several Kibbutz.

    The problem seems to be in the concept of the outcome. In the West we perceive that the outcome will fuel stable governance, democracy and free and fair elections and will produce a political and diplomatic representation which will prosecute peace and stability.

    The reality is that where we perceive an imposed solution will produce liberty breeding democracy, the Arab street interprets such liberty as the opportunity to promote an Islamic theocracy. When the Palestinian Authority looked even remotely likely to pursue a negotiated route, the people of Gaza elected Hamas.

    Israel, the one true friend of the West and the only truly democratic state in the region is as a result increasingly ensnared and surrounded by masses foresworn to conflict and annihilation.

    So where does recent and unfolding events leave the Quartet and Mr Blair its so-called Peace Envoy?

    To Israel’s north, in Lebanon, Hezbollah has been rewarded for assassination with the fruits of its destabilisation with the real prospects that they will snatch the reigns of power there.

    To the north east lies Syria, Assad too is no friend of Israel, he is as ruthless a dictator as ever his father was, but neither is he a fool and he is well aware that one facet of the groundswell of opinion on the streets of Damascus is that no peace deal should be done with Israel.

    To the west lies Jordan and King Abdullah II too finds himself embattled by the domino effect of protests and has sought to pre-empt and head off greater instability by sacking the Prime Minister and promising reform.

    This is in all probability too little and too late, the Hashimite ruling elite rules over millions of supposed subjects that are in fact Palestinian and the cauldron is boiling, in the weeks to come we are likely to witness similar scenes in Jordan to those we have witnessed in Egypt.

    Why is America and the West so concerned? Because we are painfully aware that the radical fundamentalist Islamic movements in all of these States are well organised and they carry the Arab street with them. This has been achieved by the Islamic movements setting up welfare programmes and other social projects amongst the people.

    So, to recap, as the domino effect gathers pace, what is the almost foregone outcome? Islamic theocratic organisations seizing power in these States with a policy toward the State of Israel that calls for its complete destruction.

    In the West Bank, supposedly under the rule of the Palestinian Authority but in truth outside of their control and on the street a simmering hotbed of radical fundamentalist Islam clambering to destroy Israel.

    In Gaza, Hamas, determined to continue the policy of conflict and terrorism toward the eventual destruction of Israel. They feed false accusations of being denied essentials by Israel but despite the continued terror, the trucks with aid still trundles through the crossings to deliver such essentials.

    Constant efforts to advance engineer their missiles to improve their lethality, accuracy and range to inflict more massacres of Israeli civilians. Tunnels that ‘could’ be used to acquire the allegedly needed essentials are instead used to smuggle in weapons and hardware for terror.

    Factor in that they will become surrounded by extremely volatile and hostile Fundamentalist Islamic theocracies impassioned and inflamed by the Mad Mullahs and Israel will be placed in an impossible position.

    Measured responses and restraint on the part of Israel will become a thing of the past as they gear up for yet another regional war for their very survival.

    Where does all this leave the proposed two-state solution?

    The lights will be burning long into the night in the organs of State in the Western capitals tonight. Much concern and hand wringing will be done as they struggle with the concept of dealing with a radically altered political map of the Middle East and fret not only over the impact on precious oil stability and prices and their impact in the coming days and weeks but where this will leave our influence.

    Mubarak has patently demonstrated the Arab mindset to western pressures. His responses to numerous telephone calls from America, the UK and Europe doubtless containing countless diplomatically coded pressures has been to ignore them.

    Mubarak knows that Obama needs a particular outcome that is favourable to America and that the thing that the US fears most of all is a transfer of power to the Islamic Brotherhood and as a consequence Mubarak is confident that he can ignore Obama and cling to power with his ruling party and can manoeuvre events by unleashing his paid supporters, security police and then ‘invite’ the army to restore order in the interests of the State.

    If events unfold as they may and one after another the puppet rulers of these states fall and are replaced by fundamentalist Islamic theocracies then the peace plan is dead and buried and the western powers will be left with the unthinkable possibility that instead of a staged withdrawal from Iraq and the Middle East, it is likely that they will be compelled to become militarily far more embroiled as they struggle to maintain some semblance of stability, support friendly rulers we have made commitments to and seek to prevent the whole region descending into the most destructive regional conflict imaginable!