What happens if the government loses a Brexit-related HoC vote?

#41
She is, but she cannot survive a major defeat on policy; IF pro-EU rebels help defeat the government on Brexit, then she is a PM defeated by her own party. She could not hang on (well, it would be hard as she would have zero authority) and some of the vocal pro-Brexit types would then have to step up, or seem all talk and no action (?).

That is entirely possible, that they will have to put up or shut up.

It's up to you to judge whether PMTM is playing that game or is not.
 
#42
I can't see Mogg or anyone else for that matter touching this crock with a barge-pole. May is what we have.
She is ineffective, she cannot control her own party, they are openly disrespecting her on the news etc... I don''t see how she can continue, she has done an amazing job to hang on for this long though.

UKIP are re-emerging as something different, it''s not like the old UKIP, i am seriously giving thought to joining them.

As was stated earlier by my esteemed arrser, we dont have a suitable political party to deal with Brexit nor the myriad other issues that are tearing this country apart. The recent announcement that people must get a license from the police to make a certain type of music is pushing me over the edge. I don't care how stupid the music is, I can''t accept that kind of authoritarianism that will have no positive effect.
 
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Cynical

LE
Book Reviewer
#43
There's the CU, we're currently members, and then there's other customs agreements
THE Customs Union

There is no other customs union, and few agreements. Obfuscation is not an argument. Or are you Tony Blair

UK Farmers are split (I know, I was/will be one) and at 2% of workforce and less of GDP sadly not relevant.

She is, but she cannot survive a major defeat on policy; IF pro-EU rebels help defeat the government on Brexit, then she is a PM defeated by her own party. She could not hang on (well, it would be hard as she would have zero authority) and some of the vocal pro-Brexit types would then have to step up, or seem all talk and no action (?).
Amazingly, as there is no party that has a coherent view on Brexit she probably can and will survive as:
1) Labour is as split. For every Tory EUrophile there are Labour Europhobes
2) No major political party want's to fight an election on Brexit. (It would destroy their party - as it is anyway) and open then door to a revitalised UKIP
3) No sitting MP want's to face an electorate to explain how they managed to cock up a simple,. clear instruction from the electoratre to get this country out of the EU
 
#44
THE Customs Union

There is no other customs union, and few agreements. Obfuscation is not an argument. Or are you Tony Blair

UK Farmers are split (I know, I was/will be one) and at 2% of workforce and less of GDP sadly not relevant.



Amazingly, as there is no party that has a coherent view on Brexit she probably can and will survive as:
1) Labour is as split. For every Tory EUrophile there are Labour Europhobes
2) No major political party want's to fight an election on Brexit. (It would destroy their party - as it is anyway) and open then door to a revitalised UKIP
3) No sitting MP want's to face an electorate to explain how they managed to cock up a simple,. clear instruction from the electoratre to get this country out of the EU

So, you agree it's a complete cake and arrse party.
 
#46
It's certainly interesting times.

Both major parties are split.

MPs are reportedly more pro-remain but terrified of the implications for them at a constituency level of voting against Brexit.

No Tory wants PMTM's job at the moment.

There's nothing for the EC to gain from negotiating.

In some respects a realignment of politics on a pro-Europe/Little England axis makes the most sense, but...

The Midlothian Question's in play, and the NI border question is even making Sinn Fein look statesmanlike.
 
#47
It's certainly interesting times.

Both major parties are split.

MPs are reportedly more pro-remain but terrified of the implications for them at a constituency level of voting against Brexit.

No Tory wants PMTM's job at the moment.

There's nothing for the EC to gain from negotiating.

In some respects a realignment of politics on a pro-Europe/Little England axis makes the most sense, but...

The Midlothian Question's in play, and the NI border question is even making Sinn Fein look statesmanlike.

It's what happens when people lose the sensible plot for a fantasy. The silly billies.
 
#48
THE Customs Union

There is no other customs union, and few agreements. Obfuscation is not an argument. Or are you Tony Blair

UK Farmers are split (I know, I was/will be one) and at 2% of workforce and less of GDP sadly not relevant.



Amazingly, as there is no party that has a coherent view on Brexit she probably can and will survive as:
1) Labour is as split. For every Tory EUrophile there are Labour Europhobes
2) No major political party want's to fight an election on Brexit. (It would destroy their party - as it is anyway) and open then door to a revitalised UKIP
3) No sitting MP want's to face an electorate to explain how they managed to cock up a simple,. clear instruction from the electoratre to get this country out of the EU
That's fair.
All parties, and the establishment, has the problem of trying to stay in the EU - either formally or de facto - while claiming to respect the decision to leave.
If there is a general election, the Liberals, SNP and PC will be for Remain. I am really struggling to see how the Tories and Labour could position themselves and appear credible.
 
#49
That's fair.
All parties, and the establishment, has the problem of trying to stay in the EU - either formally or de facto - while claiming to respect the decision to leave.
If there is a general election, the Liberals, SNP and PC will be for Remain. I am really struggling to see how the Tories and Labour could position themselves and appear credible.
I agree
 
#51
That's fair.
All parties, and the establishment, has the problem of trying to stay in the EU - either formally or de facto - while claiming to respect the decision to leave.
If there is a general election, the Liberals, SNP and PC will be for Remain. I am really struggling to see how the Tories and Labour could position themselves and appear credible.
Both major parties will need to reorganise themselves into a stance fit for the 21st century. I expect Labour to get there before the Tories.

Though, I'll have to edge my bets given that the Tories have managed to survive for centuries and are perfectly capable of dressing up a turd.
 
#52
Dominic Grieve has today said:

"We could collapse the government and I can assure you, I wake up at 2am in a cold sweat thinking about the problems that we have put on our shoulders."

Full story here: Government 'could collapse' over Brexit deal

My question (and I don't know the answer so views welcome) is what would happen if the government lost a Commons vote on Brexit? What does precedent indicate?

Would the government collapse? Would the PM be replaced? Would the Queen become involved, as at a time of national crises? Could there be a National Government?
Thank you.
If push comes shove the PM could use the parliament act

The Parliament Act 1911 (1 & 2 Geo. 5. ... The Parliament Acts have been used to pass legislation against the wishes of the House of Lords on seven occasions since 1911, including the passing of the Parliament Act 1949.

Blair [a pox on his house and all who dwell within] used it to force though the "hunting act"
And that's FA against BREXIT going through
 
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#53
If push comes shove the PM could use the parliament act

The Parliament Act 1911 (1 & 2 Geo. 5. ... The Parliament Acts have been used to pass legislation against the wishes of the House of Lords on seven occasions since 1911, including the passing of the Parliament Act 1949.

Blair [a pox on his house and all who dwell within] used it to force though the "hunting act"
Grieve is not in the House of Lords.
 
#55
If push comes shove the PM could use the parliament act

The Parliament Act 1911 (1 & 2 Geo. 5. ... The Parliament Acts have been used to pass legislation against the wishes of the House of Lords on seven occasions since 1911, including the passing of the Parliament Act 1949.

Blair [a pox on his house and all who dwell within] used it to force though the "hunting act"
And that's FA against BREXIT going through
There isn’t time to invoke this.

“To be eligible for the Parliament Acts procedure, a bill (other than a money bill) must be passed by the House of Commons “in two successive sessions ... and, having been sent up to the House of Lords at least one month before the end of the session, is rejected by the House of Lords in each of those sessions, that Bill shall, on its rejection for the second time by the House of Lords” be presented for Royal Assent, provided that “one year has elapsed between the date of the second reading in the first of those sessions of the Bill in the House of Commons and the date on which it passes the House of Commons in the second of these sessions”.
 
#57
Good point.
Could the Tories argue that they are no longer able to deliver the manifesto commitments due to their being a minority government? That has perhaps not been admitted but seems to be a fact.

If there is an election, I think the Tories can win, assuming that May cannot run. What can the Tories do about those pro-EU Tory MPs who are causing the PM so many problems?
Deselection; I reckon that Anna Soubry and Antoinette Sandbach (I've met her a couple of times, a nice lady) are extremely vulnerable. ISTR that Ken Clarke is meant to be leaving the HoC by 2020 anyway.
 
#58
Not sure what goes on in May's head (if anything), but her wacky left-field decision to out-Labour Labour by throwing another £20bn at the NHS without any sort of review or condition, and without any credible source of funding (of course funding=more and yet more tax) has probably just shed another 2-3 million "c"onservative voters.

I think she's just made the Tories completely unelectable. Perhaps her strategy is to create such a Gotterdammerung that even the traitors in the party will be frightened into submission? Then again perhaps, after all, there is no "strategy" and she is just another talentless placeholder who owes her career to trendy tokenism and the cynicism of others.
 
#60
Deselection; I reckon that Anna Soubry and Antoinette Sandbach (I've met her a couple of times, a nice lady) are extremely vulnerable. ISTR that Ken Clarke is meant to be leaving the HoC by 2020 anyway.
Deselecting a Tory MP is very difficult as it is completely at the whim of the local party. Despite his completely arrogant attitude Ken Clark could have another term in Rushcliffe if he wanted. I don't know how Soubry and Sandbach stand in their constituencies.
 

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