What happens if the government loses a Brexit-related HoC vote?

#1
Dominic Grieve has today said:

"We could collapse the government and I can assure you, I wake up at 2am in a cold sweat thinking about the problems that we have put on our shoulders."

Full story here: Government 'could collapse' over Brexit deal

My question (and I don't know the answer so views welcome) is what would happen if the government lost a Commons vote on Brexit? What does precedent indicate?

Would the government collapse? Would the PM be replaced? Would the Queen become involved, as at a time of national crises? Could there be a National Government?
Thank you.
 
Last edited:
#2
Either a new government would be formed by whoever could string together a viable coalition or, more likely, there'd be a very messy general election.

Brexit was always going to spark a major constitutional and political crisis (as would Remain, now that the dull masses are aware that that means eventual rule by a foreign federal government), and both UK main political parties are deeply unsuitable for the new paradigm.

Perhaps its better to get as much pain over as quickly as possible by imploding the current political system and then rebuilding it.
 

Cynical

LE
Book Reviewer
#3
Well it would depend on the detail of what the vote was on.

But if either an amendment that eviscerated the Brexit Bill, (e.g. by deciding to stay in the Single Market -which the current government excluded in it's election manifesto) - were passed in the House of Commons, there could be some serious trouble as that would be a government being defeated on a central manifesto commitment.

While it would not be a vote of no confidence per se (although it might lead to one) it would lead to much complexity and wrangling. Quite what is meant by a "meaningful vote" in the House of Commons is not clear. Very little to do with foreign policy is passed by individual votes and the government could (and IMHO should) argue that it is implementing the result of the referendum, and needs no further authority and the House of Commons has no further role. But of course Mrs May has neither the charisma, guts nor control for that.

If there is a defeat on the House of Lords the Parliament Act can be invoked (as Brexit is a manifesto commitment). That too is likely to get messy - as the wiser elements of the HoL are well aware. An unelected body seeking to block the implementation of the result of a referendum is hardly democracy in action.

As there is no consensus in Parliament, a government of Natoinal Unity is unlikely, if not impossible.

For the Monarch to become involved is unthinkable and impossible.

The net result of any massive problem in Parliament would probably be another general election. It is technically possible that the Conservatives would replace Mrs May, but who would want the job? There are no obvious "unity" candidates as Brexit has sawn the party in two.

I don't think that there are many MPs who want that; to return to their constituencies having still failed to deliver (or even get close to delivering) Brexit would be pretty high risk for most of them.


I can't remember what happens if we get to the two year point and have no deal. From memory the negotiation period can only be extended by mutual agreement, so if there is much more faffing we could be on for a no-deal Brexit anyway (why would EU help). Personally I am quite happy with no deal (i.e. reversion to WTO rules). I am furious at the lack of planning that was performed before the referendum, and in fact since, on how to make that work - but that is a subject for another day.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
#4
There were/are a whole bunch of Bills going through parliament just now, some more important than others, do it would depend on the importance of the issue being decided.

What is probably more interesting is the question of the HofL, are they going to refuse the Bills again thus setting off a potential constitutional crisis.
 
#5
Business as usual or if you like another patchwork quilt Cabinet stitched together as the last time by a goggle eyed PM thrust forward with a WTF expression to preside over more chaos undermined...... by yet another OxBridge Mafia collective of self serving Cabinet inbred dicks.
So callec future "negotiations" have no clear & concise future. There are simply no firm, non-unilateral deliverables that are guaranteed to satisfy the voting electorate, Brussels, any devolved UK power base, or Westminster that I can see to move forward with.
There is no legislation I'm aware of either that would include the Crown becoming involved.
Mind you we have Wee Nippy presiding over our own particular brand of twats up here (who really need to go) to be replaced with a truly strong & stable ..um..erm...ohh....:rolleyes:...anyone?
 
Last edited:

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
#7
On a defeat of a major Bill, this month or next then a collapse and another election is likely.

However, I've been impressed so far by PMTM's ability to cling on. No-one else wants to be responsible for this disaster.

So, who knows?
 
#9
IF PMTM resigned because of a defeat on a major policy issue, and a defeat that would have happened because it could no longer rely on some of its own MPs, it seems (from your replies) that an election would be the outcome. There could not, you imagine, be a unity candidate, as @Cynical says.
One of the [many] disappointments of Brexit has been the lack of willingness of those on all sides to put their differences to one side and try to work together to help Brexit work.
Edit: Radio 5 just quoted one Tory MP calling the PM's claim of additional funding for the NHS 'tosh'; her authority seems increasingly in question.
 
Last edited:
#11
IF PMTM resigned because of a defeat on a major policy issue, and a defeat that would have happened because it could no longer rely on some of its own MPs, it seems (from your replies) that an election would be the outcome. There could not, you imagine, be a unity candidate, as @Cynical says.
One of the [many] disappointments of Brexit has been the lack of willingness of those on all sides to put their differences to one side and try to work together to help Brexit work.
I think that's because there are so many different versions of Brexit available, only some of which are deliverable and they're the versions that look remarkably like membership but with less influence.
 
#14
#15
One of the [many] disappointments of Brexit has been the lack of willingness of those on all sides to put their differences to one side and try to work together to help Brexit work.


Arguably, Brexit has only been the crack in the dam that has released a vast pressure of political discontent that has been building over decades. E.g. look at the schisms in the major political parties, the gulf between electorate and the parties and, indeed, between the population and the metropolitan establishment.

Look at all the tin cans that have been kicked down the road by successive craven governments - the welfare crisis, national debt, NHS, social care, (all interlinked), immigration, crime, infrastructure improvement, imbalanced economy, low productivity, crippling tax burden, etc and so on.

Now the Brexit process gets added to the list of betrayed national issues - execrable politicians and other public employees/figures all pursuing private or politicised agendas. As you say, hardly any sign of a public figure trying to lead a consensus in the national interest - or in recognition of the electorate's instruction.

However, there will be light at the end of the tunnel of chaos: Brexit will, at least, provide the catalyst for re-assessment and change in the British political system. Will the Lords survive? Will the Conservatives or Labour split into new parties? Will fresh blood now arise, now that sovereign government requires do-ers rather than grand-standers?

The good news is that the usually apathetic electorate is currently fired up and is demanding heads on spikes. Thats probably a good thing; a period of chaos every generation is probably healthy for democracy.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
#16
What will really happen is MPs from all sides will stand up and shout loudly their POV; Parties may get new leaders and we might be subject to

A lot is uncertain but what is sure and carved in millions of pixels, is that another mega thread will start on Arrse! :eek:
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
#17
Arguably, Brexit has only been the crack in the dam that has released a vast pressure of political discontent that has been building over decades. E.g. look at the schisms in the major political parties, the gulf between electorate and the parties and, indeed, between the population and the metropolitan establishment.

Look at all the tin cans that have been kicked down the road by successive craven governments - the welfare crisis, national debt, NHS, social care, (all interlinked), immigration, crime, infrastructure improvement, imbalanced economy, low productivity, crippling tax burden, etc and so on.

Now the Brexit process gets added to the list of betrayed national issues - execrable politicians and other public employees/figures all pursuing private or politicised agendas. As you say, hardly any sign of a public figure trying to lead a consensus in the national interest - or in recognition of the electorate's instruction.

However, there will be light at the end of the tunnel of chaos: Brexit will, at least, provide the catalyst for re-assessment and change in the British political system. Will the Lords survive? Will the Conservatives or Labour split into new parties? Will fresh blood now arise, now that sovereign government requires do-ers rather than grand-standers?

The good news is that the usually apathetic electorate is currently fired up and is demanding heads on spikes. Thats probably a good thing; a period of chaos every generation is probably healthy for democracy.
Good post, but you fall down at the end. The 'healthy, robust' debate here on Arrse is not reflected out in the Shires so much. People are fed up to the back teeth of politics. The turnout for the bye-election last week was just 33%.

Most people don't want MPs heads on stakes, they just don't care that much!
 

Cynical

LE
Book Reviewer
#18
I know a referendum was, but is Brexit itself actually a manifesto commitment?

Curious, not trolling.
Yup (and I know you are no Troll)

May's general election manifestso, page 36 1/2 way down (here) says "we will no longer be members of the single market or customs union"
 

Cynical

LE
Book Reviewer
#20
The turnout for the bye-election last week was just 33%.
Not sure that one can interpolate from By election turn out to then anger that there will be if (or when!) May's morons stuff up Brexit.

I agree with much of @4(T) 's analysis and suspect that there is an opportunity for significant political development / reform for the reasons he suggests. It will come form outside the main stream of politics.

Cake and Arrse Party anyone?
 
Thread starter Similar threads Forum Replies Date
M Army Reserve 33
Sam The Bam Miscellaneous Jokes 5
C Royal Signals 0

Similar threads

Top