What are Brits suggestions; investing in this economy?

Discussion in 'The Intelligence Cell' started by Virgil, Sep 15, 2008.

Welcome to the Army Rumour Service, ARRSE

The UK's largest and busiest UNofficial military website.

The heart of the site is the forum area, including:

  1. You have a sizeable amount cash to invest in the near future; let's say 100k euros.

    You can invest it anywhere in the world; preferably the US or EU but not required.

    Given the housing bubble and the fall out what in your opinion is going to put one in a good situation when the dust settles?

    [And please, no doom and gloom 'the end is near' answers.]
  2. Cat house in Bangkok..........Don't care if my investment grows or not, i'm bound to have a good time.
  3. Good lord, first post on the subject and it's a home run (goal for the baseball challenged).
  4. [​IMG]

    Go to Vegas,if you loose everything, you'll have at least got a free trough and a comp'd room!

    Alternatively, PM Arrser Dread.
  5. Not these days unless you actually show up with 100K cold hard cash, in which case you may get your room comp'd at an off strip "crab trap"..drinks are still free while you play.
  6. Any investment strategy depends on your own personal attitude to risk, and whether you are interested in income or growth. It helps to have knowledge of the area in which you are investing (ie don't buy collectables unless you can spot a bargain).
    If it were ME, my personal opinion is that the bear market will bottom out before Christmas, but property and the financials will take another 12 months - stick it all into a FTSE100 tracker while they're going cheap; but don't say I told you so :)
  7. Can't say I'd invest it in the UK at the moment and I'd have doubts about the US. I'm a bluff old traditionalist who prefers to see my money being put to work actually making things rather than just being counted in novel ways to generate a profit on paper. The US isn't quite so bad as here but both countries strike me as desperate to support financial services at the expense of manufacturing. That just seems to me to be unbelievably short-sighted.

  8. Rover was asset stripped by Phoenix, who took tax money as well, the stakeholders took out as much as they could (something upwards of £50 million!), paid themselves a fortune and gave themselves very nice pensions before running away very fast. If this was done in the US they would be serving 20 years apiece, in the UK they got government backing and will more than likely end up with knighthoods if they pass back 100k to the labour party coffers.
  9. Alsacien

    Alsacien LE Moderator

    Well if its in Euros already that is the currency to leave an investment in! The ECB/Euro has not been in existence long enough to have faced anything like this, and everyone is interested to see whether the diverse economies collected under the Euro umbrella will be able to capitalise on the fact.
    This is a time to make a lot of money - I am just trying to figure out how.... :oops:
  10. blue-sophist

    blue-sophist LE Good Egg (charities)

    Virgil, at this stage my €100,000 would be in cash. More precisely, there are many institutions offering excellent rates for savers, as they're desperate to get their hands on a bit of liquidity. That in itself needs some care, as a few are in a fairly rocky state.

    Diverse institutions, though, and keeping below the FSCA limits with any one group of institutions [i.e. Halifax = Bank of Scotland etc. etc. ].

    For those who are skilled at playing the Stock Market, there are undoubtedly some good opportunities. I rely on my Fund Managers to seek them out.
  11. Currently, no-body, not even seasoned institutional investors are sure where to invest. There's just too much volatility in the markets. This volatility is being exacerbated by the unwinding of Lehman's positions. Ultimately, there's a shortage of liquidity and this, combined with a $600 billion fire sale of Lehman assets, will lead to prices of all asset classes reducing further. As such, we're not at the bottom, or anywhere near it. It is, therefore, in my view unwise to invest in the markets at the moment. There is $3 trillion to $5 trillion less liquidity in the system compared to this time last year. This is deflation staring us in the face. As such, it can be argued that cash is the best place to be at the moment, and that cash rich investors should wait until the bottom materialises before stepping back into the markets (easier said than done). In the Great Depression many investors misjudged the timing of the bottom. Many thought that the bottom had been reached when, instead, the real crash was only just beginning. This mistiming inevitably wiped huge numbers of investors out, thus exacerbating the crash.

    It may be a good idea to convert those FRNs or pound sterling notes into Swiss Francs or Japanese Yen. HSBC provide a foreign currency denominated account. And HSBC are one of the most highly capitalised banks on the planet. However, this doesn't make them immune from collapse. There is a genuine threat that all the Western banks could collapse. Furthermore, before converting FRNs or pounds to a foreign currency and storing offshore one should make sure that their capital is protected by guarantee schemes. The danger is that your particular choice of bank may be covered by deposit insurance schemes, but that it may only cover residents of where the account is based.

    Another interesting thing to consider, and it's something that most people are unaware of, is that in the UK it is assumed that bank accounts are protected to a limit of £35,000. However, this is NOT a government guarantee. It's merely a government organised guarantee that the banks run with their own funds. Currently the scheme has £3.5 billion in the coffers. As such, it would be a lottery as to who would receive compensation for their losses were the banks to collapse. Once that £3.5 billion pot is used up, then what?

    Finally, a little (say 5% of your portfolio) gold wouldn't hurt. There are chances that, like all asset classes, gold will diminish in value. However, it is still the crisis asset and as long as you don't invest more than you can afford to lose then you shouldn't have sleepless nights. Whatever you do, if you buy gold, do not buy paper gold such as ETFs(Exchange Traded Funds) or allocated gold. Buy physical gold. Krugerrands are the cheapest and most liquid of gold coins. However, they are subject to Capital Gains Tax, whilst Sovereigns and Britannias are exempt from the dreaded CGT.


    Good luck.
  12. TheIronDuke

    TheIronDuke LE Book Reviewer

    So you've got €100k plus a sizeable amount of cash? Right.

    Buy art. Talk to someone who knows the business. Stick it on your wall and watch it rise in value. Its nice to look at, transportable and shows no sign of recession fatigue.

    Alternatively, pick a nice country. Find out where Marriott / Hilton / Four Seasons are building a new resort. Buy a small plot of land opposite / nearby and build a tourist trap bar.

    Or I have an investment opportunity in China. Molibdinum. Molybendum. Molybidenum... shiney silver metal.

    If you think now is a good time to invest in anything you're as mad as a box of frogs mate.
  14. TheIronDuke

    TheIronDuke LE Book Reviewer

    Not at all. Its not all cash-n-trash in a recession. The hedge funders love it. A viable firm in need of short term liquididy is banjaxed at the moment. So its the hedge funds or the liquidator.

    Property? How many Muppets didnt see the crash coming and are up to their ears in that whole mortgage / revalue / remortgage property development house of cards. With bills coming due. If you've got the cash and they need it, name your price.

    Do you think people are not cracking bottles of fizz at the prospect of picking the bones of Lehman Bros? Barclays will make a killing. When they realised they had only to withdraw from takeover talks, watch Lehmans collapse then step back in for the fire sale.