West Africa's Deteriorating Situation

The jihadist insurgency has been spilling over from the Sahel area into West Africa for several years now.

After a period of discreet installation of terror groups that used neighbouring countries such as Ivory Coast, Benin, Cameroun, Senegal, Ghana and others as safe havens and recuperation areas, we are now seeing the next stage in the jihadist plan.

This comprises intimidation of CIVPOP, radical preaching, identification and elimination of officials, application of islamic law and now direct attacks on security forces.

I will thus put in this thread information on this rapidly expanding threat which is inching every day closer to the Gulf of Guinea.

The British Army being involved in training activities in some of those nations l consider it relevant for this site.



First attack last year in lvory Coast


Since, several others




And yesterday evening another 3 KIA in Ivory Coast


This last attack can be considered as a tit for that for the opening of the AILCT counter terror academy in Abidjan two days before.

 

Hairy-boab

Old-Salt
I would personally solve this problem by banning all money and people transfers from west Africa to Europe/USA etc.

Not talking about the poor bloody migrants, but the children of corrupt politicians, the stolen aid/state money etc. Cut them off from the international banking sector etc. Make sure the 'elite' in these places are properly invested in solving their problems.
 
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The US are making it clear that the situation is not improving....this means the US could soon start to apply pressure on its allies to do more to fight the expansion of terror groups in Africa

 
The US are making it clear that the situation is not improving....this means the US could soon start to apply pressure on its allies to do more to fight the expansion of terror groups in Africa

Leave it to the Chinese. They seem keen on colonising the place.
 
The problem for Europe is that when things go pear shaped in Africa refugees will be heading to the EU.
Well Europe will have to defend its borders and send the ones who get through, back to Africa unless they want Marine Le Pen type governments throughout Europe and the demise of the EU itsself. Its a simple and stark choice.
 
Chad orders an additional 60 Terrier LT-79 armoured vehicles from the UAEs.

The Chad Gvt is fearing a renewed offensive from the FACT rebels that are currently reffiting after after suffered severe losses at the hands of the Chadian forces last April


1624168524779.png
 
A summary of recent events in Côte d'Ivoire by the LWJ

This trend is disturbingly similar to the situations in both Burkina Faso and Niger wherein a slow trickle of initial IEDs eventually gave way to larger and more frequent attacks.

 
Spain is also busy training West African forces.

In the below picture taken during an exercice held in Thiès, Senegal, at the end of 2020, SP AF EZAPAC unit (Air force Sappers Wing ) train Senegal AF commando unit in shooting from a helicopter.

1624726076835.png



 
French force in Ivory Coast training the local army in C-IED operations.

IED were unknown last year in IC but several have already detonated this year in the North of the country causing 3 killed and several wounded in local forces.

E5Rdh50X0AAfh4D.jpg
 
The following is an interesting story on how things are going badly for France in West Africa.
Why France is losing its 'Great Game' in western Africa

A short summary of the story would be the war in West Africa is not going in France's favour. The jihadis are gaining ground, while the Russians and Chinese are opportunistically sniffing about the more lucrative edges.

I don't know the areas well enough to say whether this is an accurate assessment, but the implication seems to be that this is another Afghanistan in the making. If it is, then it would be interesting to know what the longer term implications are for the region in general.
 
The article I think is flawed as it fails to point out several important point, either deliberately or by lack of research.

  • The 2 Malian coups have given a golden opportunity for Macron to highlight the fact that France's destiny was not to take care of the security of all its former colonies, no matter what the internal situation in those countries are; there is a very pronounced African fatigue in French corridors of power at the unability of the locals to fend for themselves
  • France cannot be expected to win militarily against an opposition that is active now in at least 10 different countries while deploying a force of 5,100 pax, that is basically less than one RC in AFG 10 years ago
  • The purpose of op Barkhane is not to win the war; it's to give time to local forces to reach a position from which they stand a better chance of not being slaughtered, so basically to buy time
  • France's objective when it intervened in 2013 with an international mandate was to avoid a crumbling of the malian state and the establishment of an AQ base in the region. All mentions of "prestige" are completely out of touch with reality, especially in those Woke periods; which Western country is going to bank on African Ops to claim prestige ? Atonement is the order of the day now, not raids in the desert.
  • Since 2013, France has wanted to internationalise the Sahel situation because it sees it as a threat to Europe. It has to a very large extent succeeded in convincing its partners and neighbours that France's views are valid; today, a vast majority of European nations, EU or not, are part of either Op Barkhane, EUTM Mali, TF Takuba or the MINUSMA and several are currently inquiring on how to join in, especially after the AFG draw down as they are looking for theaters of operation to employ some of their most experienced units
  • All of the Gulf of Guinea region nations are currently asking for French military support, one way or another; France is not the only country to receive those calls for help as several other European nations, including the UK, are already training units on the ground in countries that have yet to suffer their first jihadist attacks.
  • China is not the attractive proposition the article pretends it is; the debt diplomacy issue is now well understood and the chinese don"t get the same welcome they used to
  • Turkey is not mentioned in the article and is much more of a problem as it comes with associated Muslim Brotherhood politics; Erdogan has done more trips in Africa than on any other continent since he got in power
 
A visual illustration of French MTT providing courses to partner nations in West Africa in the past few months

Benin

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EwDulSEXMAkgofA.jpg


Guinea

E3_SZx4XMAEuhML.png


Togo

E3BfPK8XwAEBgrz.jpg


E24WD1OXwAEUoDm.jpg


Ghana

E0PO6VDWUAoQE0P.jpg


Niger

E0Ocx8tXIAM_uRQ.jpg


Côte d'Ivoire

Ex-QXK6XIAEPsi2.jpg


Senegal

ExelQVpW8AANUDt.jpg


Mali

EvoEurMXIAYUkPf.jpg


Mauritania

Es6XZH_WMAcA1w1.jpg



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A discreet but very powerful element of the islamist breakthrough in Western Africa is Qatar.

Its "NGO" Qatar Charity has an ever growing presence in many areas of jihadist activities and is known to have been a supporter of AQ activities. OBL himself confirmed it as highlighted in this 2013 Foreign policy article;

Other boxes and flags in SIF’s December video belonged to Qatar Charity, which used to go by the name Qatar Charitable Society. As evidence submitted by the U.S. government in a criminal trial noted, in 1993 Osama bin Laden named the society as one of several charities that were used to fund al Qaeda’s overseas operations. In 1995, the group’s funds were used to support an assassination attempt against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

(...)

Qatar Charity was part of that mix in Gao, one of the Malian cities that fell under Islamist control. IRIN reported that 35-year-old Moussa Touré returned to Gao, where Qatar Charity paid him twice the salary that he made previously. Because of such efforts, Maliweb, an independent Malian news source based in the United States, accused Qatar Charity of being a major financier of "the terrorists in northern Mali." Although Qatar Charity has its defenders, the focus of its charitable efforts and the manner in which they coincided with Islamist attempts to bolster the economy provide reasons for suspicion.



And as if on cue, Qatar Charity now lands in Ivory Coast...

 
The article I think is flawed as it fails to point out several important point, either deliberately or by lack of research.

  • The 2 Malian coups have given a golden opportunity for Macron to highlight the fact that France's destiny was not to take care of the security of all its former colonies, no matter what the internal situation in those countries are; there is a very pronounced African fatigue in French corridors of power at the unability of the locals to fend for themselves
  • France cannot be expected to win militarily against an opposition that is active now in at least 10 different countries while deploying a force of 5,100 pax, that is basically less than one RC in AFG 10 years ago
  • The purpose of op Barkhane is not to win the war; it's to give time to local forces to reach a position from which they stand a better chance of not being slaughtered, so basically to buy time
  • France's objective when it intervened in 2013 with an international mandate was to avoid a crumbling of the malian state and the establishment of an AQ base in the region. All mentions of "prestige" are completely out of touch with reality, especially in those Woke periods; which Western country is going to bank on African Ops to claim prestige ? Atonement is the order of the day now, not raids in the desert.
  • Since 2013, France has wanted to internationalise the Sahel situation because it sees it as a threat to Europe. It has to a very large extent succeeded in convincing its partners and neighbours that France's views are valid; today, a vast majority of European nations, EU or not, are part of either Op Barkhane, EUTM Mali, TF Takuba or the MINUSMA and several are currently inquiring on how to join in, especially after the AFG draw down as they are looking for theaters of operation to employ some of their most experienced units
  • All of the Gulf of Guinea region nations are currently asking for French military support, one way or another; France is not the only country to receive those calls for help as several other European nations, including the UK, are already training units on the ground in countries that have yet to suffer their first jihadist attacks.
  • China is not the attractive proposition the article pretends it is; the debt diplomacy issue is now well understood and the chinese don"t get the same welcome they used to
  • Turkey is not mentioned in the article and is much more of a problem as it comes with associated Muslim Brotherhood politics; Erdogan has done more trips in Africa than on any other continent since he got in power
A major melt down in West Africa is going to lead to a flood of refugees to Europe, so every country in Europe has a stake in what happens there.

On a slightly different tack, West Africa has a Muslim / Christian divide, one of the major places in the third world where the two are in direct contact. How are the people on the Christian side of the divide taking all this, and what sort and scale of conflict do you think will develop if Islamic radicals establish themselves firmly in power in some countries?
 
A major melt down in West Africa is going to lead to a flood of refugees to Europe, so every country in Europe has a stake in what happens there.

On a slightly different tack, West Africa has a Muslim / Christian divide, one of the major places in the third world where the two are in direct contact. How are the people on the Christian side of the divide taking all this, and what sort and scale of conflict do you think will develop if Islamic radicals establish themselves firmly in power in some countries?

The most dynamic part of christianity in Western Africa is sponsored by a series of US churches (Baptists, adventists etc.) In most cases, christianity is mixed with a hefty dose of animism.

In areas of frictions, the only case of energetic self defence of christians against moslems I am aware of is to be found in CAR when the anti-balaka movement was created in 2013.

It has been accused of all kinds of crimes and atrocities, ranging from rape to ethnic cleansing of moslems and Fulanis; their opponents, the moslem Séléka, did no better.
 
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DarkBrig

War Hero
Throughout my Army career (22yrs) I never once visited Africa, I have never regretted that.
 

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