Weak sterling will deliver UK surplus

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by heard_it_all_before, Sep 27, 2009.

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  1. A headline from the other day, but nevertheless one that has had me wondering.

    If this spin (pump) is to be believed and we are to return to being a country of prosperity, (and you never know that they might even re-stock the country's Gold Supplies), whose to say that the bungling fools in charge won't just pisss it all down the river with the rest of wasted billions

    So a question for all the City Types:

    For all of us that like nothing more than seeing the back of blighty while we toast ourselves on a Mediterranean beach, how much longer are we going to be subjected to the devalued Pound and continue to have to pay what is in effect, a 20% foriegn travel tax..?
  2. Get one. Cyclops McRruin along with his economic ‘Advisors’ (Muppets) will soon be telling everyone that ‘Things will get better…’ Didn’t Teflon Tony keep saying the same thing?

    Of course, they have to ‘Big Everything Up’ for the Neues Arbeits Shin-dig. Even McRuin was ‘larging it up’ when interviewed by Andrew Marr on BBC TV this morning. The speculation around Cyclops’s ‘state of mind’ and general health was dismissed by McRuin. He says that he is in ‘Tip Top Shape’… so there!!

    McRuin and Pals have to be ‘Radical’ again, new ideas and new policies to flog to the weary voters… more ‘Del Boy’ bull droppings. The Labour manifesto will be full of the usual crud in due course. This labour government is totally incapable of changing. They will promise to be radical, listen to the public, blah, blah, blah… we’ve heard it all before, time and a gain. Previous Manifestos ‘Promised’ all sort of things, but they were reneged on. It was ‘More of the same’. More Laws to ‘Control us all’, more taxes (which is expected even from the Tory’s), more bull-droppings for sure.

    Nues Arbeits is congenitally incapable of change because they have become so sure that their own lies and propaganda ‘Is the Truth’, they are arrogant with it. Pa McBroone will go into the next election, that is for sure, unless something drastic happens to force him to resign. But there are apparently more ‘Political Banana Skins’ in the offing whence all our Boys and Girls in Parliament return to work from their summer frolics on the beach.
    :p :p :? :roll:
  3. So all the Boss's doom and gloom the other day is misplaced?

    Days of plenty are about to return on Planet Brown and no more penny pinching in the MOD!

    Hiurrah! For Prudence the Master of the Economic Universe! He created wealth out of thin air!
  4. While not a city type, I'd take a guess at the answer being a mix of:

    (a). Never: the pound was overvalued against both the dollar and to a lesser extent the Euro.

    (b). Never: most of the Med states would have had a de-facto devaluation of their currencies during this recession but their euro membership is proping their exchange rates up at a level that hurts both them and anyone visiting from the non-Eurozone

    (c). About six months: most of the financial would still looks to the US, UK, Chinese, Japanese and German economies as the leading lights and tends to drift over the rest. With the recession over and a chance for the market to stop and think about everyone else, as this report shows the first signs of them doing, there will be a great collective "Oh Shit!" with regards to the economies and debt levels in much of the Eurozone, and this will drag the Euro down.
  5. Hang on though - might this be correct? A few pennies that seem to be dropping lately:

    - Economic crisis largely due to banks "maxing out their credit cards" - sub-prime a symptom not a cause.

    - Ergo, medium-term, banks can't afford to lend much until world capital values rise to provide collateral.

    - Meanwhile, Brown's economic strategy has devalued the pound - so if it continues (according to GS) our public debt begins to reduce at a rapid rate

    - Surely then, a combination of bank lending down (to individuals and the private sector) and public debt reducing will in due course create a situation where the Govt is the only institution in UK that can actually spend (tax receipts + falling debt gradually >expenditure)?

    Perhaps Gordon isn't mad after all, although ironically the Tories are likely to reap the windfall of the storm, rather as He did as Chancellor in 1997..

    Standing by to be enlightened...!
  6. What export industry? Do we still manufacture anything. We have no car industry, no aviation industry, no steel industry, no ship building industry. So what do we export?
  7. Pissed off native Brits old boy, Pip!,Pip!
  8. I suggest you look again.
    Whilst we may not be the industrial powerhouse we used to be we still manufacture quite a lot and have huge potential to produce more.
    As an example take a look at steel production figures of 2007 and compare that to the early 1980's. Or try the figures for the amount of cars produced You might be surprised.
    We have large mineral reserves sitting untaped, we have a huge unused workforce. As soon as we get rif of the halfwit Brown and actually make an effort we can put ourselves back at the forefront in many sectors.
  9. Shed loads. British-waste-of-space, EADS Astrium, Qinetiq, Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Minis, major car plants for Toyota and Honda. That's before looking at SMEs like the one I work for that's a world leader in drug discovery automation.
  10. The problem with relying upon exports, is that largely speaking, the raw materials or component's and parts are first imported from either Europe or Aisa in the first place.

    However, one area of production that's nearly entirely constructed from UK sources is the caravan industry. The very same Industry that has strong UK sales, exports to Europe, employs thousands of people in the North East and is that same industry that Mandelson chased out of Downing St when they asked for a trade in scheme like the cars got. Like them or not, unlike the cars, they're nearly entirely 'Made in Britain'.
  11. My Honda is more 'British' than most Fords and Vauxhalls… Go figure. 8O
  12. Devaluing your way out of a crisis is an old trick thats why some Nations requested that it does not happen this time.
    UK exports will become cheaper, mind you imports will cost more.
    Ask yourself
    Do we export more then we import ?

    'Nues Arbeits is congenitally incapable of change because they have become so sure that their own lies and propaganda ‘Is the Truth’, they are arrogant with it.'

    Yes, Uncle V I do agree with that statement and I believe so do many Labour types.
    Look up, http://order-order.com/
    and see the photo taken at the Brighton Conference.

  13. I have a stack of gilts in my pension fund. The only way the Govt is going to make headway in the massive amount of UK debt is to inflate its way out. Think about it. A 30K mortgage 20 years ago was a lot of money, now 100-140K is the norm. Inflation is forecast to start picking up next year. Then a key moment, does BoE stop QE or continue it for a while longer? Too cautious and we are in double dip territory, leave it going for longer than necessary then inflation will pick up. I suggest a deliberate loosening up policy will ensue.

    Nothing like a few years of inflation to reduce debt.

  14. I can see a problem here…

    Labour has created a huge 'client state' on inflation linked benefits.

  15. FY 2009 Govt Spend 631Bn of which 15% welfare and 17% pensions a tad more than national debt which is currently 175Bn but with inflation as a percentage of national spend it will decrease over time. Agree though, the figures are eye watering. I can't keep track of what percentage of GDP is being spent, probably breach 100% at this rate. Most recent check was just short of 60% forecast to go to 80% but we are already borrowing way more than forecast. Italy without the sun?