Water Wars

Some recent academic research or European drought modelling.
Climate change intensifies droughts in Europe: Researchers model the effects of the global temperature rise

According to the modelling results of the author team -- which involved scientists from the USA, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom in addition to the UFZ -- if global warming rises by three degrees, the drought regions in Europe will expand from 13 percent to 26 percent of the total area compared to the reference period of 1971 to 2000. If efforts are successful in limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as stipulated in the Paris Climate Protection Agreement, the drought regions in Europe can be limited to 19 percent of the total area. With the exception of Scandinavia, the duration of the largest droughts in Europe will also last three to four times longer than in the past. Up to 400 million people could then be affected.
Yes, looks like they might manage to dodge the Day Zero bullet this time.
The next question is what long term measures they put in place, or will they just go back to normal jogging.
Hiked the tariffs right up, and had a big education plan so water users don't waste as much.
BUT the locals who DON'T pay for the stuff don't give a toss. So now they'll be put on 'restricted' flow.
That is good news. I don't pretend to understand the exact process, but if it can be applied to the reclamation projects where it really matters (gold, copper in particular) it could make a huge difference.
This looks like a proof of concept, but there is an enormous global problem with acid mine waste.
Anything that helps remedy that is a winner, and if it is commercially practical to recover the metals as well, that is even better.
Afghanistan is suffering a severe drought, on top of its usual problems.
Drought Adds to Woes of Afghanistan, in Grips of a Raging War

So apart from food shortages, you will probably see an upsurge in poppy planting. (It doesn't require much water and as a cash crop it will allow the farmers to buy more food)
More interestingly, (In Chinese terms,"May you live in interesting times") it probably forecasts a bad year for Iran, which is already water-bankrupt, and gets much of its supply from Afghanistan.

They recently had a Western trained environmental scientist in Government, but he ended up running for his life.
In Iran’s water crisis, Tehran sows the seeds of its own decline

“I have returned” to Iran, tweeted a newly appointed environmental official charged with resolving the country’s water crisis, “with the hope of creating #hope.” Within months, however, that hope evaporated – and he found himself arrested, interrogated, and facing a government-coordinated smear campaign.

Blackouts are also forecast
Blackouts Inevitable As Water Shortage Becomes Critical, Says Iran’s Energy Minister

Iran’s Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian says widespread blackouts would be inevitable as the country experiences its driest year in five decades.

Ardakanian also cautioned that 334 cities with their nearly 35 million population are going to grapple with “water crisis” next summer.

The volume of water flowing into Iran’s damns is 43 percent lower than usual, leading to a 61 percent drop in energy produced at hydroelectric power stations, Iran’s Energy Ministry has reported.

With the country in the midst of its worst drought in decades, Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian warned April 8 that power outages will sweep the country this summer.

It may well be that domestic concerns will force Iran away from some of its more adventurous foreign policy activities , although there is nothing like a good foreign war to rally a discontented civilian population behind an oppressive government.
Is it all via the Sistan Basin or is there another route?
Iran has numerous water sources, but the key ones on the Afghan border are the Helmand and Haridod. These are by no means the largest, but the Eastern part of Iran is some of the driest land area. The Helmand supports the Hamun wetlands, which are almost as wrecked as the Aral Sea.
From Wetland to Wasteland : Feature Articles

The problem nationally is a combination of climate change, overpopulation, gross overabstraction, terribly inefficient agriculture, and a corrupt and incompetent series of dams built by the regime and the IRGC.

AQUASTAT - FAO's Information System on Water and Agriculture

Water supply and sanitation in Iran - Wikipedia
The Slow Destruction of Iran’s Water Supply
Even as far back as the far off days of H7, I remember reading various source reports showing increasing Iranian concerns about water supply from the Western Afghan provinces. One of the reasons why there was at least 28 businesss in Kandahar believed to be fronts for various Iranian Intelligence Agencies, and why the TB in Herat province had extensive links to the IRG due to proposed hydro-electric projects on rivers flowing into Iran.

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