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Maps have shown Uke partisan activity south of there for a long time now. An advance to the coast south of Melitopol would leave the orcs in Kherson and Crimea with only the Kerch bridges as a supply route back to orcland. Just saying.
It’s been said that if the Ukrainians are using the two up, 1 back principal, somewhere in Ukraine is another armoured brigade.
Spidie sense tells me Kherson is a bit of a fixing action and at some point we’re going to see a drive to Mariupol and the Chongar bridge falling down. All the Ukrainians need to do is make a small advance from Kherson to bring Armiansk in range and the two remaining roads from Crimea can be cut off using artillery.
Bringing the Kerch bridge down would be nice, but may be a step too far.
Having all Russian reinforcements having to go through Armiansk village however negates any numerical advantage the Russians may have as they.
I know Russia has warned against it, but I’d like to see the ammunition dumps and SAM systems in Transnistria taken out. Degrades Russian capability once again and low risk of Russian casualties.
I expect it probably depends upon the identity of the captive. I imagine the kids and conscripts get treated fairly, even sympathetically, once in the PoW chain, whereas Wagner types, SF and politicals probably get the cameras turned off...
(Defense News) The Pentagon’s international affairs chief said Monday that Russia’s new losses in the strategic southern Kherson region are about to spiral into a “major defeat” that would give Ukraine a defensive position amid “hot fighting” expected this winter. Read More
(Al Jazeera) Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian defences in the south of the country while expanding their rapid offensive in the east, seizing back more territory in areas annexed by Russia and threatening supply lines for its troops. Read More
(Defense One) As Russia scrambles to prepare new draftees for its Ukrainian war, the governments of NATO's Baltic states worry about the growing masses of Russian troops in training sites near their borders. Read More
"NATO Joint-Intelligence has reportedly warned Members of the Alliance that they have seen indications that Russia may be preparing to conduct a form of Nuclear Weapons Test in the Black/White Sea or near the Ukrainian Border, and that they must prepare for the possibility.
A military train carrying Equipment from the 12th Chief Directorate; responsible within the Russian Ministry of Defence for their Nuclear Arsenal, has been seen traveling west towards the Ukrainian border."
A worrisome report at first, then you read that the train is seen to carry the BPM-97 armoured personnel carriers (APCs). These are also used as border guard vehicles.
Potentially being used as a highly mobile counter attack unit to plug the gaps.
The land still under Russian Control is huge, they have the potential to create a defensive line in depth, with a mobile counter attack echelon.
They will still suffer from poor comms and poor control, however going back to basics and waiting for the bad weather is a tactic that can be used to great effect to stifle the Ukrainian moral and start grinding out a resolution.
This is why I feel Ukraine will keep their feet on the Russian collective throat to stop the formation of a defensive line in depth.
His referendum plan would reward deporting populations and replacing them with friendlies - that principle is horrific in its physical application and would cause havoc if it became any sort of acceptable international precedent.
Russia is an aggressive and expansionist state - if they walk away with any gains then we've encouraged that behaviour and made it a practical policy option.
Russia's already in serious breach of international agreements, what's the point of any new treaty without any means to compel Russia to respect it?
Russian mobilisation won't lead to millions of deaths but the re-introduction of nineteenth century-style power politics into international affairs will almost certainly lead to a mis-calculation at some future point.