Victory in Iraq prior to end of 2008?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by ghost_us, Jun 3, 2008.

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  1. Michael Yon, which many of you know and respect has suggested that the war in Iraq could actually be called a "Victory" by the end of 2008.

    Normally if I didn't follow this man for a couple years I would think he was bonkers. But with all due respect, he was also the first person to call it an insurgency, and subsequently a civil war.

    I have reason to believe his words may have some merit.

    Anyway, he has an open invitation to the presidential hopefuls and any senators to tour Iraq and talk with the troops on the ground about the progress made.


    Interested to hear what our fair skinned cousins cross the pond have to say about this.
     
  2. Recent events in Iraq would seem to suggest this article is correct.

    The recent surge in US troop numbers has seen violence drop considerably across Iraq.

    The prospect of an unconditional pull-out of US troops by the Democratic Party may in light of the above,IMHO, be counter-productive.
     
  3. Ghost, no matter what happens in Iraq, all you'll get here from most will be along the lines of

    "blah blah blah shrub, blah blah blah bliar, blah blah blah Iran really won, blah blah blah oil, etc.
     
  4. Really? You have read this forum , and all the Iraq threads haven't you?
     
  5. Yes I have, and it almost always decends into a bitchfest. Also note I said MOST, not ALL.
     
  6. Well it would be nice if Yon is correct, but I won't be holding my breath. That's not through any particular insight into the Iraqi insurgent mindset, or knowledge of the effectiveness of the cousins, but due to my own cynicism formed by bitter experience. Like I say, I hope he's right, but until we know who the next US President is I won't putting any money on the result.

    Edited to add: mlarr shrub oil wmd tinfoil mlarr etc. (just for parapauk)
     
  7. You forgot Iran :D

    Back on thread though, I think it will be clear after the Iraqi local elections in November.

    To Obama's credit, he isn't planning to bail. A phased withdrawal over 16-24 months, leaving behind SF and force protection units, sounds both sensible given the progress made, and neccessery for a very tired US Army.
     
  8. Even if he called for an immediate withdrawal it would still take around 16 - 24 months. The logistical operation would be time consuming and very expensive. Think D Day in reverse and multiply by about five.
     
  9. Somehow I don't think we'll be leaving with as many troops as we came with if you catch my drift.

    I didn't agree with why we were there, but the reality is we are there, and both British and American troops have died for it. I hope at the very least something comes of this. I agree with leaving some sort of QRF there although if they all hunker into a big palace they risk returning to a 2003 perception of being out of touch with the locals.

    I guess it's really a catch 22. We don't want to be there, and they may or may not want us there, but we cannot leave Iraq on it's own accord anytime soon. We have to protect our "investment" until it is no longer threatened.
     
  10. This depends how you define "victory". If it's about soon having a slim prospect of greatly poorer and shrunken DC being able to retreat with some dignity in 2018, oh happy day, that may be within the margins of probability. Even on these shaky grounds I'd not be stocking up on ticker tape just yet.

    On the other hand if winning is about attaining strategic objectives Cordesman's sober 06 assessment still stands:
    It's telling that it requires a good deal of well informed conjecture to even frame a coherent set of objectives.

    Objective #2 on it's way? I'd hope so. After a long procession of much trumpeted tipping points I'm not filled with confidence. The deluded belief it will be achieved in the short term will only ensure disaster. A good outcome depends less on the US Millitary than the locals. I include not just the still fractious Iraqi Arabs but the Kurds, ruthless Ankara, wily Qom and stubborn Riyadh in that.
     
  11. You mean things like blah blah, concrete walls separating areas of cities and towns, blah blah blah, bans on using cars, blah blah blah, no fekker dare step outside blah blah blah sectarian 'cleansing' blah blah returning displaced Iraqis that find their former homes to be a 'cleansed area' and having to find somewhere else to live.....
    That sort of stuff?
    This drop in fatalities, as much as it's welcome, is mere window-dressing in my ever-so humble opinion.
     
  12. No, because these are important issues on the ground that need addressing. The kind of bitching I'm talking about is either dogmatic, false, or would require a time machine to fix.
     
  13. http://michaelyon-online.com/

    It's not a specific problem connected to Iraqi war. Politics always triumphes over the truth (and not only in the USA).

    Al Qaeda in Iraq is a fruit of imagination of American propaganda. The main force here are Iraqi nationalists.

    Wrong, the militias are prepareing for future battles for power after inevitable withdrawal of American troops. So they don't waste resources to fight against those who is packing their luggage.

    By the way the war in Vietnam had ended long ago (and 'violence' was reduced significantly some years before the end). And later or sooner Iraqi war will end as well.
     
  14. Your logic is flawed - the last thing the militias should be doing now to expidite a US withdrawal is tone down their attacks. The more they do that, the less of a liability Iraq becomes to McCain, and if he win the insurgents will pretty much have to sit on their hands for the next four to eight years if your 'preperations for future battles' theory is anything to go by. McCain won't have any hesitation in stopping or even reversing a US withdrawal is things begin to get worse, no matter how unpopular.
     
  15. Alsacien

    Alsacien LE Moderator

    Shrewd and accurate observations Sergei..