Venezuela - coup d'état?

Poppycock

Old-Salt
Here's a theory:

2-US Jack Ryan types get a contract to find and train Colombian mercenaries in preparation for a Venezuela coup / destabilisation op. Operating cash and some training aids provided up front & promise of further funds.

Promised funding goes tits up and US citizens are left with angry, unpaid Colombians in some God forsaken camp on La Guajira's arid peninsular (a Caribbean desert).

The US citizens, trapped with some angry Colombian paramilitaries, decide to embarrass their sponsors (for leaving them high & dry) and extricate themselves from the Colombian's grasps by going ahead with the operation.

Using only their training weapons, comms, boats, etc they'll of blagged the Colombians they were being met on the other side by friendly forces with fresh supplies. That's why the Colombian interviewed was mouthing off about the US citizen's (highly exaggerated) links to Donald Trump.

It was probably a run in with the Venezuelan home guard (local fisherman) that reportedly led to 8 of the Colombians being KIA.

There probably was a lot of intel on it too: Colombia's been at War with itself since La Violencia that started in 1948 (after the assassination of a very promising socialist presidential candidate, Jorge Gaitán), so an established informer network would have picked these guys up very quickly. So I can understand how the Venezuelans knew about it, and the US or Colombian's didn't know because they hadn't ordered it and perhaps didn't give a F. about leaving 2-guys in the lurch in the God forsaken Guajira peninsular.

As per their plan, the US citizens will get extricated out of Venezuelan custody pretty quickly by Mike Pompeo's Deep State Department. The Colombians will get reeducation lessons in the Venezuelan prison system for a couple of years and Elliot Abrams will be spitting feathers.

That's my best explanation for them turning up looking like that
 
Here's a theory:

2-US Jack Ryan types get a contract to find and train Colombian mercenaries in preparation for a Venezuela coup / destabilisation op. Operating cash and some training aids provided up front & promise of further funds.

Promised funding goes tits up and US citizens are left with angry, unpaid Colombians in some God forsaken camp on La Guajira's arid peninsular (a Caribbean desert).

The US citizens, trapped with some angry Colombian paramilitaries, decide to embarrass their sponsors (for leaving them high & dry) and extricate themselves from the Colombian's grasps by going ahead with the operation.

Using only their training weapons, comms, boats, etc they'll of blagged the Colombians they were being met on the other side by friendly forces with fresh supplies. That's why the Colombian interviewed was mouthing off about the US citizen's (highly exaggerated) links to Donald Trump.

It was probably a run in with the Venezuelan home guard (local fisherman) that reportedly led to 8 of the Colombians being KIA.

There probably was a lot of intel on it too: Colombia's been at War with itself since La Violencia that started in 1948 (after the assassination of a very promising socialist presidential candidate, Jorge Gaitán), so an established informer network would have picked these guys up very quickly. So I can understand how the Venezuelans knew about it, and the US or Colombian's didn't know because they hadn't ordered it and perhaps didn't give a F. about leaving 2-guys in the lurch in the God forsaken Guajira peninsular.

As per their plan, the US citizens will get extricated out of Venezuelan custody pretty quickly by Mike Pompeo's Deep State Department. The Colombians will get reeducation lessons in the Venezuelan prison system for a couple of years and Elliot Abrams will be spitting feathers.

That's my best explanation for them turning up looking like that
You have missed your meds tonight haven't you.
 
There are more details of the coup plot in this story, but the main element of interest is a video of one of the Americans, Luke Denman, confessing to the plot on Venezuelan TV. The ARRSE web site does not allow direct embedding of CBC videos, so you will need to click through to the story and play it there.
Maduro airs video of American detained in alleged Venezuela plot

Denman claims that his contract was signed by Gauido as well as Goudreau. The video has been cut in a number of places, probably by CBC for brevity. Unless a copy of the contract with Gauido's signature surfaces, I suspect that he will simply deny that. If I were in Denman's position (which I'll admit would take quite a stretch of imagination to be), the I would probably want Gauido's signature on my contract in order to cover my position as being legally authorised to conduct security operations in Venezuela, so it's not unimaginable that Gauido did sign it. We'll have to see what actually materialises however. Denman holds up what appears to be a contract, but we don't see the details of it.

I mention the above CBC video, as it means that this 10 minute video below is probably a genuine original from Venezuelan TV. It's mainly of interest in terms of the operational details, which he describes to some degree. The plan evidently was for one team to grab Maduro while the other team was to take control of the airport. Some planes were to then fly in and take Maduro to the US. Just exactly how 50 men were supposed to take on and defeat the Venezuelan police and security forces to do all this isn't explained. Why he thought this plan would work isn't explained either.

He does say that he was promised $50,000 to $100,000 dollars. I could say that he must have been extremely desperate for money, but that doesn't seem like a satisfactory explanation for believing in such a hopeless plan. Saying that he's seen too many Hollywood movies is more likely. I guess he'll have a chance to see what life is like in a Venezuelan prison.

 
There are more details of the coup plot in this story, but the main element of interest is a video of one of the Americans, Luke Denman, confessing to the plot on Venezuelan TV. The ARRSE web site does not allow direct embedding of CBC videos, so you will need to click through to the story and play it there.
Maduro airs video of American detained in alleged Venezuela plot

Denman claims that his contract was signed by Gauido as well as Goudreau. The video has been cut in a number of places, probably by CBC for brevity. Unless a copy of the contract with Gauido's signature surfaces, I suspect that he will simply deny that. If I were in Denman's position (which I'll admit would take quite a stretch of imagination to be), the I would probably want Gauido's signature on my contract in order to cover my position as being legally authorised to conduct security operations in Venezuela, so it's not unimaginable that Gauido did sign it. We'll have to see what actually materialises however. Denman holds up what appears to be a contract, but we don't see the details of it.

I mention the above CBC video, as it means that this 10 minute video below is probably a genuine original from Venezuelan TV. It's mainly of interest in terms of the operational details, which he describes to some degree. The plan evidently was for one team to grab Maduro while the other team was to take control of the airport. Some planes were to then fly in and take Maduro to the US. Just exactly how 50 men were supposed to take on and defeat the Venezuelan police and security forces to do all this isn't explained. Why he thought this plan would work isn't explained either.

He does say that he was promised $50,000 to $100,000 dollars. I could say that he must have been extremely desperate for money, but that doesn't seem like a satisfactory explanation for believing in such a hopeless plan. Saying that he's seen too many Hollywood movies is more likely. I guess he'll have a chance to see what life is like in a Venezuelan prison.

There is something very "off" about that confession video. What the hell is he thinking? "i'll just tell them everything, co-operate and then let me go" ??

At face value, this whole operation looks like a total clusterfcuk however the organiser, the former SF chap ought to know better, much better and no doubt does. I think that we are just seeing the result of a Maduro government spin to make them and the US look like incompetent criminals. There will be far more to this than we currently know.

The guy in the video looks weak, he may be the only one that is talking or has succumbed to intense interrogation. I dont think we can really trust anything that he says at this point.
 
Trumps security is in the hands of the US Secret Service not any PMC
I believed that at least in the early days of his presidency, it was a mix-and-match type affair, as this was causing some issues with the USSS?
 
There is something very "off" about that confession video. What the hell is he thinking? "i'll just tell them everything, co-operate and then let me go" ??

At face value, this whole operation looks like a total clusterfcuk however the organiser, the former SF chap ought to know better, much better and no doubt does. I think that we are just seeing the result of a Maduro government spin to make them and the US look like incompetent criminals. There will be far more to this than we currently know.

The guy in the video looks weak, he may be the only one that is talking or has succumbed to intense interrogation. I dont think we can really trust anything that he says at this point.
I read an article on this, this morning. It appears that amongst all the kit recovered from the wannabe Coup team, there was an alleged airsoft rifle - complete with orange tip on the barrel, and airsoft company name on the side.


1588837116800.png


1588837211532.png

(second image from a promotional / review video)

Now it could be a gen rifle, with the tip painted and logo put on there for...reasons...but seems very odd - unless it was for a bit of fun in all the downtime they were expecting? Or packed by mistake.
 
I read an article on this, this morning. It appears that amongst all the kit recovered from the wannabe Coup team, there was an alleged airsoft rifle - complete with orange tip on the barrel, and airsoft company name on the side.


View attachment 471640

View attachment 471641
(second image from a promotional / review video)

Now it could be a gen rifle, with the tip painted and logo put on there for...reasons...but seems very odd - unless it was for a bit of fun in all the downtime they were expecting? Or packed by mistake.
Yes i noticed that a day or two ago, it could simply have been a training aid. Of more concern are those shitty Beta C-Mags, why anyone would go to war with those is beyond me, they are simply not reliable. Perhaps none of this gear was intended to go to war with and was just a training package on it's way to a new locaton.

Weapon's, in Columbia, are not that hard to come by if you have good local connections and i think we have to give a Green Beret SNCO some credit in that he would be unlikely to attempt to invade Venezuela with a BB gun. There are photo's of two Hilux's (nice ones too) with GMPG's mounted to the roof, spare barrels and an AKM (or AK74) on the back seat of one of them. Also a genuine AR15 that is purported to have also been photographed last year in another failed operation.

All of this just looks to amateurish to be legit. Even an African coup is better organised than this. I have some experience of Latin American myself and while farce is fairly standard, this is beyond a joke.

The two US citizens (not confirmed as SF) carried their VA ID cards and had US velcro flags on their helmets??? Did Jordan whatever his name is not brief his men at all?

I'm a bit sketchy on the specifics of the Green Berets, the US SF world is vast and confusing with so much overlap between different unit's competing for funding and operations but isn't the Green Berets' modelled on our SAS? I thought that Delta is contained within that unit?

Can you imagine a British SAS (former) soldier being caught in a similar operation with his DVLA license and RBL membership card? I know that our former SAS chaps have been involved in their own collection of private ventures in the past but It just doesn't add up.

It is also a fact worth keeping in mind that Maduro is a cnut who has destroyed his country almost entirely and is not even legitimate at the moment having lost the last election. I dont believe a word of his side of the story.

edited to add - i just looked at the silvercorp instagram page and it's cringe. If genuine then it looks like this guy is a twat.
 
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Makes the Wonga Coup look like the Raid on Entebbe.
However, it is nice to see that Trump security is apparently in the safe hands of delusional American Soldier of Fortune airsofters.
A mite unfair comparison; as the wonga coup had no direct state support, whereas the entebbe raid was with the full support of israel and the tacit turning of blind eyes by several countries inbetween the flights route.. I do think the wonga coup would likely have ended very badly for the attackers. Even exec outcomes needed heavy weapons(BMP/Mortars/MI24) to push past an opponent and the distance from the airport to malabo is a little too long. This venezuelan gig had the same problem:-

How do you get past any kind of serious opposition at say company strength, where your an effectively lightly armed reconnaissance. Its clear the attack assumed the venezuelan military were in the bag and the fault likely lies with the venezuelan senior who convinced a group of gulliable americans. With regards a real takeover the obviously springs to mind:-

1. The conditions for a guerilla war don't exist i.e. the people to some extent are still with maduro.
2. A decapitation has to come from within, else its the hated yanquis.
3. Invasion isn't doable without a nations support.
 

4(T)

LE
I read an article on this, this morning. It appears that amongst all the kit recovered from the wannabe Coup team, there was an alleged airsoft rifle - complete with orange tip on the barrel, and airsoft company name on the side.


View attachment 471640

View attachment 471641
(second image from a promotional / review video)

Now it could be a gen rifle, with the tip painted and logo put on there for...reasons...but seems very odd - unless it was for a bit of fun in all the downtime they were expecting? Or packed by mistake.


Pretty valid tool if, for example, you are training a snatch squad or some sort of choreographed operation that has to be rehearsed multiple times.

If there was some sort of training camp involved in this escapade, then the airsoft presence is plausible.


.
 
Pretty valid tool if, for example, you are training a snatch squad or some sort of choreographed operation that has to be rehearsed multiple times.

If there was some sort of training camp involved in this escapade, then the airsoft presence is plausible
Seems a bit unnecessary - if you're going to trust them with weapons in real-time, trust them in training. Or use simunition - which would save bringing another weapons system?

I managed to train (well, attempt to) the Afghan National Police without airsoft weapons.
 
Seems a bit unnecessary - if you're going to trust them with weapons in real-time, trust them in training. Or use simunition - which would save bringing another weapons system?

I managed to train (well, attempt to) the Afghan National Police without airsoft weapons.
Yes but you had access to the ANP government arsenal. It's probably just easier to procure airsoft than it is real weapons and sim ammo in an asymmetric environment liek the one being discussed.

Simunitions are really expensive when you have to pay for them yourself
 

Grownup_Rafbrat

LE
Book Reviewer
Yes i noticed that a day or two ago, it could simply have been a training aid. Of more concern are those shitty Beta C-Mags, why anyone would go to war with those is beyond me, they are simply not reliable. Perhaps none of this gear was intended to go to war with and was just a training package on it's way to a new locaton.

Weapon's, in Columbia, are not that hard to come by if you have good local connections and i think we have to give a Green Beret SNCO some credit in that he would be unlikely to attempt to invade Venezuela with a BB gun. There are photo's of two Hilux's (nice ones too) with GMPG's mounted to the roof, spare barrels and an AKM (or AK74) on the back seat of one of them. Also a genuine AR15 that is purported to have also been photographed last year in another failed operation.

All of this just looks to amateurish to be legit. Even an African coup is better organised than this. I have some experience of Latin American myself and while farce is fairly standard, this is beyond a joke.

The two US citizens (not confirmed as SF) carried their VA ID cards and had US velcro flags on their helmets??? Did Jordan whatever his name is not brief his men at all?

I'm a bit sketchy on the specifics of the Green Berets, the US SF world is vast and confusing with so much overlap between different unit's competing for funding and operations but isn't the Green Berets' modelled on our SAS? I thought that Delta is contained within that unit?

Can you imagine a British SAS (former) soldier being caught in a similar operation with his DVLA license and RBL membership card? I know that our former SAS chaps have been involved in their own collection of private ventures in the past but It just doesn't add up.

It is also a fact worth keeping in mind that Maduro is a cnut who has destroyed his country almost entirely and is not even legitimate at the moment having lost the last election. I dont believe a word of his side of the story.

edited to add - i just looked at the silvercorp instagram page and it's cringe. If genuine then it looks like this guy is a twat.
Ref. Your last paragraph. He may be related to or trained by the much derided Baron Castleshortt of PayPal.
 
Yes but you had access to the ANP government arsenal. It's probably just easier to procure airsoft than it is real weapons and sim ammo in an asymmetric environment liek the one being discussed.

Simunitions are really expensive when you have to pay for them yourself
However, if they're training them to conduct an operation, they'll need to procure those weapons anyway?

And the ANP 'Arsenal' was...limited, although I was rather fond of jazzy tape & stickers that held together their AKs.
 
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Yes i noticed that a day or two ago, it could simply have been a training aid. Of more concern are those shitty Beta C-Mags, why anyone would go to war with those is beyond me, they are simply not reliable. Perhaps none of this gear was intended to go to war with and was just a training package on it's way to a new locaton.

Weapon's, in Columbia, are not that hard to come by if you have good local connections and i think we have to give a Green Beret SNCO some credit in that he would be unlikely to attempt to invade Venezuela with a BB gun. There are photo's of two Hilux's (nice ones too) with GMPG's mounted to the roof, spare barrels and an AKM (or AK74) on the back seat of one of them. Also a genuine AR15 that is purported to have also been photographed last year in another failed operation.

All of this just looks to amateurish to be legit. Even an African coup is better organised than this. I have some experience of Latin American myself and while farce is fairly standard, this is beyond a joke.

The two US citizens (not confirmed as SF) carried their VA ID cards and had US velcro flags on their helmets??? Did Jordan whatever his name is not brief his men at all?

I'm a bit sketchy on the specifics of the Green Berets, the US SF world is vast and confusing with so much overlap between different unit's competing for funding and operations but isn't the Green Berets' modelled on our SAS? I thought that Delta is contained within that unit?

Can you imagine a British SAS (former) soldier being caught in a similar operation with his DVLA license and RBL membership card? I know that our former SAS chaps have been involved in their own collection of private ventures in the past but It just doesn't add up.

It is also a fact worth keeping in mind that Maduro is a cnut who has destroyed his country almost entirely and is not even legitimate at the moment having lost the last election. I dont believe a word of his side of the story.

edited to add - i just looked at the silvercorp instagram page and it's cringe. If genuine then it looks like this guy is a twat.
Think they have been confirmed as Ex 10th Group Green Beret's
 
one in his videoed confession states being in the Army for 5 years do they have Direct Entry to SF in the US?
I believe you can apply direct as a civvie to the Green Berets, the same as SEALs.

Edit: From Wiki

There are now two ways for soldiers to volunteer to attend SFAS:

As an existing soldier in the US Army with the Enlisted rank of E-3 (Private First Class) or higher, and for Officers the rank of O-2 (1st Lieutenant) promotable to O-3 (Captain), or existing O-3s.

Initial Accession or IA, where an individual who has no prior military service or who has previously separated from military service first attends Infantry One Station Unit Training (OSUT, the combination of Basic Combat Training and Advanced Individual Training), Airborne School, and a preparation course to help prepare them for SFAS. This program is commonly referred to as the "X-Ray Program", derived from "18X". The candidates in this program are known as "X-Rays". Both the Active Duty and National Guard components offer Special Forces Initial Accession programs. The Active Duty program is referred to as the "18X Program" because of the Initial Entry Code that appears on the assignment orders.
 

Sarastro

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
The lack of knowledge and level of fevered speculation being displayed on this forum of supposedly ex-military types is embarassing.

SF have their share of naive idiots, and if you take a quick count of the number of external military coups (successful or unsuccessful) over the past century, you'll realise that there is no such thing as being a "professional" at this. These kinds of disasters happen relatively rarely and mostly feature fools because all the previous ones have invariably turned out to be disasters and mostly featured fools. You have to be a bigger fool than the last set of fools to believe that you'll be the one who succeeds.

Yet, there is, unfortunately, a significant minority of SF chancers out there who believe that their (former) badge and training in contact drills somehow qualifies them to do basically anything at all in top level commerical or geopolitical operations. Occasionally they encounter one of the similar significant minority of chancers in top-level advisor jobs in commerce or geopolitics, who - usually bamboozled by the badges, SF brand and confidence, lacking in real expertise themselves and whose idea of what is possible is based more on Tom Clancy than experience - are willing to let the SF guys try. It rarely goes well. This applies just as much to the run-of-the-mill security contracting world, where you get entirely inappropriate people and companies bidding for and winning some jobs for which they are totally unqualified, but nobody really works it out until they've failed.

This just looks like the most extreme edge of that. Never underestimate the heights to which incompetence and stupidity can rise. Usually before falling, really fast.

PS There's a 0% chance of this being formally sponsored by any US agency, because it fails the very first test of risk aversion above all else.
 

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