Venezuela - coup d'état?

YarS said:
Expected arrival time to Delaware port, USA, Today at 12-00 UTC.

Port of DELAWARE CITY (US DCI) details - Departures, Expected Arrivals and Port Calls | AIS Marine Traffic
Already get access.
I posted where it is and what it's doing. You have no evidence that it called in Crimea, loaded oil and is now unloading oil in the US. You lie like a cheap NAAFI watch.
YarS said:
Why not? Trade is one of the most important elements of war.
Same as you did with Germany, right up until Barbarossa.
 
YarS said:
You are overplaying "Stupid Brit".
You are overplaying idiotic, drunken, raping, Russian. A hard feat, but you excel at it.
YarS said:
Novorossiysk is not Crymea,
I never said it was. One's in Russia, the other is in Ukraine.
YarS said:
..and you still didn't request a full data.
And you have no proof of it's last cargo or entering any Black Sea port this year.
 
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Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
I never said it was. One's in Russia, the other is in Ukraine.
Oh, Lord! When city Dnepr (now in Ukraine) was Novorossiysk (1796-1802) there was no Ukraine (even as administrative part of Russian Empire). There is only one Novorossiysk now, and it is in Krasnodarskiy Kray.
Ok, may be you didn't have geography in your schools, but who restrict you to use Google to compensate lack of knowledge? Strict rules of Reuters journalistic, which restrict fact checking?
 
YarS said:
Oh, Lord! When city Dnepr (now in Ukraine) was Novorossiysk (1796-1802) there was no Ukraine (even as administrative part of Russian Empire). There is only one Novorossiysk now, and it is in Krasnodarskiy Kray.
Novorossiysk - Wikipedia Russia
Crimea - Wikipedia Ukraine, temporarily occupied by Soviet Russia
YarS said:
Ok, may be you didn't have geography in your schools, but who restrict you to use Google to compensate lack of knowledge? Strict rules of Reuters journalistic, which restrict fact checking?
None of which answers your assertion that the FRIO went to any Black Sea port this year, filled up with Russian oil and sailed to the US to unload it. More lies from @YarS
 
Special Report - How a Chinese venture in Venezuela made millions while locals grew hungry - Reuters
Meanwhile, back in Venezuela, a Chavez started programme with a Chinese company meant to employ over a hundred thousand and create rice paddies twice the size of Manhattan seems to have stalled;
The 2010 pact, with China CAMC Engineering Co Ltd , would develop rice paddies twice the size of Manhattan and create jobs for the area’s 110,000 residents, according to a copy of the contract seen by Reuters.

The underdeveloped state was an ideal locale to demonstrate the Socialist Venezuelan government’s commitment to empower the poor. And the deal would show how Chavez and his eventual hand-picked successor, President Nicolas Maduro, could work with China and other allies to develop areas beyond Venezuela’s bounteous oil beds.

“Rice Power! Agricultural power!” Chavez tweeted at the time.
Despite allegedly paying CAMC at least $100M, no locally grown rice has been produced, nor have the jobs projected materialised:
Nine years later, locals are hungry. Few jobs have materialized and the plant is only half-built, running at less than one percent its projected output. It hasn’t yielded a single grain of locally grown rice, according to a dozen people involved in or familiar with the development.

Yet CAMC and a select few Venezuelan partners prospered.

Venezuela paid CAMC at least $100 million (76 million pounds) for the stalled development, according to project contracts and sealed court documents from an investigation by prosecutors in Europe.
Still subject to Court proceedings, it is alleged:

• CAMC agreed to at least five agricultural projects in Venezuela, valued at about $3 billion, that it never completed.

• The company, according to contracts and project documents reviewed by Reuters, received at least half the value of the $200 million contract for the rice project and at least 40 percent of the contract value for the other four developments – a combined total of at least $1.4 billion for work it never finished.

• CAMC paid over $100 million in fees to intermediaries; prosecutors say those payments were kickbacks that helped the company win contracts in Venezuela.


CAMC themselves deny the accusations, say they contain 'a large number of inaccuracies', that they operate in Venezuela adhering to integrity and strive to complete the construction projects with the best technology and management. The Chinese Foreign Ministry say '....obviously distorted and exaggerated facts, with a hidden agenda.' without saying what the agenda is:
In a statement, the Beijing-based company told Reuters the details and assertions in the case files include “a large number of inaccuracies,” but didn’t elaborate. The company didn’t respond to requests to speak with CAMC executives mentioned in the documents. Reuters couldn’t reach those executives independently.

“Our company operates in Venezuela in adherence to the idea of integrity and strives to complete every construction project with the best technology and management,” the statement said.

China’s Foreign Ministry, in a statement to Reuters, said “reports” about alleged bribery by Chinese companies in Venezuela “obviously distorted and exaggerated facts, with a hidden agenda.” It didn’t specify to what agenda it was referring. Cooperation between the two countries will continue, the statement read, “based on equal, mutually beneficial, and commercial principles.”
 
Apparently people from Venezuela are still flooding over the borders into neighboring states, especially Colombia, seek medical care as the health care system has failed due to acute shortages of medicines and supplies as well as an exodus of medical professionals.

The US is sending USNS Comfort to Colombia to provide medical care to Colombians and Venezuelans for several months. Comfort is a big ship, similar to HMS Queen Elizabeth in tonnage, length and beam. She has about 1000 patient beds and a medical staff of close to 1000.

USNI article

I know when Comfort deployed there last year the medical staff was a bit multinational including medical, dental and nursing officers from Canada, Mexico and Colombia in the staff. I understand there was an effort to include in the support positions American personnel whose first language is Spanish.

Last year China sent a hospital ship to Venezuela for a week. The Chinese hospital ship is smaller, with about 300 beds and smaller medical staff.
 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
Septics sent almost unarmed cutter in the Venezuela's economical zone. For what reason? She is too weak to play "carrier diplomacy", but it is still military ship.

09-57-11-D6LF4UDUcAATJZn.jpg





 

Grey Fox

*Russian Troll*
There is an interesting Iranian article about military coperation between Venezuela, Iran and Russia.

http://www.javanonline. ir/fa/news/954152/%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3-%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF



Shortly: USA are bad, they support illegal attempt of coup and try to put chaos in Venezuela, Russia and Iran are good, they will increase tech and military support for Venezuella and its people.
 
Guaido has now announced that so far as he is concerned "all options are on the table" when it comes to overthrowing Maduro and he has instructed his envoy in the US to immediately contact the Pentagon. "All options are on the table" is used by Washington as a euphemism for starting a war.
www.cbc.ca/news/world/guaido-u-s-military-communications-maduro-1.5132660?cmp=rss
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido says he's instructed his political envoy in Washington to immediately open relations with the U.S. military.

Guaido said Saturday that he's asked his ambassador Carlos Vecchio to open "direct communications" toward possible co-ordination. (...)

Guaido says he's keeping "all options on the table" to remove Maduro, repeating language used by U.S. President Donald Trump and his chief advisers.
US admirnal Faller has already said he is prepared to meet with Guaido.
Earlier this week, U.S. Navy Adm. Craig Faller said he would meet with Guaido when invited to discuss the future role of Venezuela's armed forces.
It appears at this time that Guaido may have given up on the idea of being able to overthrow Maduro on his own and may possibly be looking to call in the Americans to forcibly install him in power.

The Americans may use this as a pretext to do what they have been wanting to do anyway.

At this point the Americans may start sounding out whether they have diplomatic support amongst other countries in the region for this. It's not clear though to what degree the lack of support would necessarily stop them.
 
Guaido has now announced that so far as he is concerned "all options are on the table" when it comes to overthrowing Maduro and he has instructed his envoy in the US to immediately contact the Pentagon. "All options are on the table" is used by Washington as a euphemism for starting a war.
www.cbc.ca/news/world/guaido-u-s-military-communications-maduro-1.5132660?cmp=rss


US admirnal Faller has already said he is prepared to meet with Guaido.


It appears at this time that Guaido may have given up on the idea of being able to overthrow Maduro on his own and may possibly be looking to call in the Americans to forcibly install him in power.

The Americans may use this as a pretext to do what they have been wanting to do anyway.

At this point the Americans may start sounding out whether they have diplomatic support amongst other countries in the region for this. It's not clear though to what degree the lack of support would necessarily stop them.
I find it difficult to believe that the USA will intervene, militarily, on the ground. An off-shore embargo would be relatively easy and probably present less direct risk to their forces. But I’m not a politician. I’m not convinced that the Lima Group would support an invasion.

The majority of the Venezuelans that I have spoken to this week don’t want an invasion but they do want Maduro out. Most say that should they have to make a choice they would rather the USA than either Russia or China. The opinion seems to be that getting rid of one socialist dictator to be replaced by another one would, for the individual on the street, be no change in their daily life.

Venezuelans are just sick and tired of being the pawn in an international game of chess. Most just do what they can to survive today; they can’t plan for a future that might include food tomorrow but no toilet paper, rice later but no clean water to cook it in.

The most disturbing story I’ve heard recently is of two attractive, young (early twenties) women electing to be surgically sterilized because they don’t want the responsibility of bringing children into the world as they find it. I doubt that they are the only ones, but I’ve not heard of others, nor read reports in the MSM.

One person made the following comment: “Maduro, the Army leadership, every part of organized governance is funded by drugs. Cocain. If Peru, Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia didn’t produce such vast quantities, he (Maduro) would be gone by now. If the USA and Europe didn’t provide such a rich market for the drugs he would be gone by now. If the government falls, there is likely to be the mother and father of an almighty civil war sponsored by the drug cartels. The cartels are probably better armed, trained and motivated than the Vz army and civilian population. Who wins? No idea, but it won’t be Vz.”
 
I find it difficult to believe that the USA will intervene, militarily, on the ground. An off-shore embargo would be relatively easy and probably present less direct risk to their forces. But I’m not a politician.
Unfortunately the US have been displaying a great deal of bad judgement lately, and I wouldn't care to bet against an invasion just because it would be a bad idea. Bolton and Pompeo in particular do not impress me as having much of a clue as to how badly things can go wrong.

I’m not convinced that the Lima Group would support an invasion.
I suspect the Lima Group would split between a few who would support it, a few who would vocally oppose it, and the rest who would dither and waffle.

The majority of the Venezuelans that I have spoken to this week don’t want an invasion but they do want Maduro out. Most say that should they have to make a choice they would rather the USA than either Russia or China. The opinion seems to be that getting rid of one socialist dictator to be replaced by another one would, for the individual on the street, be no change in their daily life.

Venezuelans are just sick and tired of being the pawn in an international game of chess. Most just do what they can to survive today; they can’t plan for a future that might include food tomorrow but no toilet paper, rice later but no clean water to cook it in.

The most disturbing story I’ve heard recently is of two attractive, young (early twenties) women electing to be surgically sterilized because they don’t want the responsibility of bringing children into the world as they find it. I doubt that they are the only ones, but I’ve not heard of others, nor read reports in the MSM. (...)
An American invasion of Venezuela would very likely change the political dynamic there for the worse. It would change from being a class struggle of rich versus poor and an argument of social justice versus competent economic management to one of patriots versus traitors and national independence versus puppets of the Americans. Given the long and bitter history of Central and South America, that would leave little room for fence sitters.

Recall that Chavez ushered in what he call the "Bolivarian Revolution". Simon Bolivar of course being the Venezuelan national hero who fought to expel colonial power from the continent. Bringing the Americans into Venezuela would give the new "Bolivarians" a very powerful narrative with which to recruit supporters and take their struggle into a protracted guerrilla war.

The Americans carry a great deal of historical baggage in that part of the world, where they enthusiastically engaged in all same sort of thuggery that Europeans today like to associate with Russia. Any Venezuelan politician who would willingly associate himself with that shows both a hunger for power and a degree of poor judgement that would bode ill for the future of the country.

One person made the following comment: “Maduro, the Army leadership, every part of organized governance is funded by drugs. Cocain. If Peru, Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia didn’t produce such vast quantities, he (Maduro) would be gone by now. If the USA and Europe didn’t provide such a rich market for the drugs he would be gone by now. If the government falls, there is likely to be the mother and father of an almighty civil war sponsored by the drug cartels. The cartels are probably better armed, trained and motivated than the Vz army and civilian population. Who wins? No idea, but it won’t be Vz.”
That there is crime and corruption in Venezuela is a given; it is a reality that is widespread in Central and South America. A change of government won't change that.

However, what finances the Venezuelan government is the oil industry. The current problems in the oil industry reflect both the low price of oil in particular and the broader economic problems which affect Venezuela in general.

The central problem in Venezuela at the moment is price controls. Lift those and the economy can stop its free fall. Stop printing money and the economy can start to rebound surprisingly quickly.

Rebuilding the oil industry will take years, as that involves physical building, not just making decrees. It is the foundation of Venezuela however, which has been both a blessing and a curse.

There are however a number of really, really, bad ideas that I have heard the Americans floating which could prevent any sort of long term turn around in Venezuela's fortunes. One of the worst is to replace the Venezuelan currency with the American dollar. This displays either a staggering degree of economic illiteracy or an equally staggeringly degree of ruthless disregard for the well-being of the country for the sake of gaining yet a tighter grip on its affairs.

To conclude, that Maduro is doing a poor job of running the country is I think inarguable. The problem so far is that I haven't seen any sign of anyone who has a clear idea of what to do different other than to try to turn the clock back to the 1980s. Guaido doesn't impress me with what I've seen so far of him. Perhaps he has hidden depths, or perhaps he's like a dog who chases cars but has no idea of what he would do with one if he ever caught it. I'm willing to be pleasantly surprised, but hopes of that sort are not a secure foundation upon which to build national policy.

What I would want my own country (Canada) to do is to make statements saying we think that Maduro is doing a bad job and ought to resign, but to otherwise keep our hands off, don't support an American backed foreign invasion, and to let Venezuelans sort things out for themselves.
 
The Venezuelan government is in talks in Norway with certain elements of the opposition.
www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-government-says-talks-opposition-norway-1.5138100?cmp=rss
Talks are underway in Norway between Venezuela's government and "democratic" opponents, an envoy said on Thursday, in a possible search for a mediated solution following a failed uprising attempt against President Nicolas Maduro.

"Yes, there are talks between the Bolivarian government and the democratic sectors of the opposition," Venezuela's ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Jorge Valero, told reporters, denouncing U.S. interference.
Guaido has confirmed that talks are taking place, but the story was not clear just what part if any his representatives were playing in this.
Guaido confirmed efforts in Norway to mediate between the opposition and Maduro's government on Thursday in remarks, but said the opposition won't enter into any "false negotiation." (...)

Guaido said any diplomatic process aimed at resolving the Venezuelan crisis must lead to the end of Maduro's government, its replacement by a transitional administration, and free and fair elections.
The names that we know of are the information minister and a state governor on the government side, and an opposition legislator (with the rather fascinating name of "Stalin") and a pair of "political advisors" on the opposition side.
Information Minister Jorge Rodriguez and Miranda state governor Hector Rodriguez of the ruling Socialist Party both travelled to Oslo, according to opposition sources.

Opposition legislator Stalin Gonzalez, along with political advisers Gerardo Blyde and Fernando Martinez, have also gone, they said.
The secretary general of the UN strongly supports the talks.
The United Nations said Secretary General Antonio Guterres is "very much supportive" of the talks in Norway between Venezuela's government and opposition on ways of ending the South American country's crisis.
There are of course no guarantees that the talks will amount to anything. Norway has a previous history of mediating in conflicts in the region, having been involved in talks between the Colombian government and Colombian rebels.
Norway has a tradition of conflict mediation, including assistance with Colombia's 2016 peace deal between the government and FARC rebels.
In an unrelated meeting, Canada's foreign minister met with her counterpart in Cuba to discuss both the situation in Venezuela and US sanctions.
Separately, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland met Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez in Havana. Freeland's office said the purpose of the visit is "to discuss the deteriorating situation" in Venezuela, an ally of Cuba, as well as U.S. sanctions on Cuba.
 
Venezuela's Maduro proposes early elections for opposition-run congress - Reuters
Looks like Maduro wants to bring the elections for the National Assembly forward and clearly thinks (knows?) his party will gain the most votes. He did the same for the Presidential elections:
“We are going to measure ourselves electorally ... we are going to bring forward elections of the National Assembly,” Maduro told a crowd of red-shirted supporters on Monday.
Some members of the opposition have already been detained and others have fled the country:
Intelligence agents have detained several Guaido allies and the Supreme Court has accused 14 opposition lawmakers of crimes including treason and conspiracy, prompting most to flee abroad or take refuge in friendly embassies in Caracas.
The opposition’s envoy to the US has met Pentagon and State Dept officials to discuss ‘all aspects of the Venezuela crisis’ which were described by him as ‘positive’ and they ‘continue to advance’:
The Venezuelan opposition’s envoy to the United States, Carlos Vecchio, said on Monday he had met Pentagon and State Department officials in Washington on Monday to discuss “all aspects of the Venezuelan crisis.”

Vecchio said in a message on Twitter that the talks held at the State Department had been “very positive” but offered no further details. “We continue to advance,” he said.
 

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