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Vendee Globe Finish.

Latest update with 2 more relief times.
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Article on VG 07:10.gmt.
It is still too close to call. And it likely will be for much of this final morning racing for the leaders. Louis Burton in third this morning noted the discrepancy between what the weather models are forecasting and what he has on the Bay of Biscay, the yellow bow of Bureau Vallée 2 pointed a Les Sables d’Olonne some 315 nautical miles in front of him.
On his southern option, working closer to the Galician coast leader Charlie Dalin has made five gybes in the last 130 miles, since passing to the north of Cape Finisterre and. Although Dalin grew up in Le Havre and lives in Brittany he is absolutely in his offshore racing backyard, on the arena where so many La Solitaire du Figaro stages have taken him to and from the north coast of Spain.
The skipper of Apivia leads by only 49 miles from Boris Herrmann whose course is about 30 miles to the north of Dalin’s.
There is nothing in it at all. Herrmann has six hours compensation to deduct from his elapsed time, so in essence Dalin needs 120 miles of cushion or a bit less and had 230 miles left to race at 0530hrs UTC.
Yannick Bestaven has 10hrs and 15 minutes of redress and so to beat him Herrmann needs four hours and 15 minutes between him and the skipper of Maître Coq. Right now there is computed to be 125 miles but Bestaven – at 440 miles to the finish - is bringing the wind in, racing at 21kts. Latest computer predictions have Dalin on the line early evening, French time, between about 1700hrs and 1900hrs perhaps and some of the corrected margins will be in minutes, for sure.
Who will get the advantage on this nerve shredding final sprint? It's difficult to say because everything will depend on the direction and strength of the breeze in the final hours (the last sixty miles). On paper, the southwesterly wind blowing on the Bay of Biscay will take on a more westerly direction for the last two hundred miles blowing above fifteen knots. But closing to land it might ease to a dozen knots, which suggests that the solo sailors will probably have to do one, two or more gybes under a spinnaker, that is.....if they took one and if it is still operational. The end of the course might be a relatively slow cliffhanger.....
 
Found an AIS position for Apivia from 8 hours ago. No satellite coverage so no live tracking via Marine traffic.
However we can see why the skippers sometimes get frustrated with other vessels. It can take some time on VHF trying to persuade the other vessel to make a brief course change.

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Vendee Globe - 1300 update and Vendee Live 12:30

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If you missed the start, you can move the cursor to the front. It starts with video from Boris Herrmann bouncing along in short waves and wails of wind while preparing his breakfast. He said he has a couple of gybes to make.

 
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Vendee Globe - Dalin has less than 80 nm from Finish
  • Dalin has less than 30 nm on his current course before turning and sailing ~ 60 nm to the finish.
  • Boris has yet to make his move but he will soon, similar to Charlie Dalin.
  • Yannick Bestaven is slowly gaining on Thomas Ruyant.
  • Giancarlo Pedote is gaining on Damien Seguin and is sure to overtake the non foiling boat.
  • There is more wind forecast by 1500, so it will be interesting where and when Jean Le Cam adjusts his course.

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14:00 positions without wind overlay so you can follow the routings.
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With wind overlay
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The inner radius is 60 nm. The outer radius is 200 nm.
Race order, Dalin leads, Burton, Hermann, Ruyant, Bestaven.
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Good to see that Jean Le Cam's speed has improved.
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How are your probable positions derived?
I have divided the distance to the finish by the latest average VMG.

Whoever created the sheet for VG is a bit of a noob, concatenated text, wrapped text, merged cells, numbers formatted as text, all the things that advanced users of Excel hate.
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Thanks. Re your comments about the spreadsheet, I took a look at it weeks back (last year) and decided not to bother trying to do anything with it.
I toyed with it back in November too but gave up because every update required a huge re-formatting before I could apply formulas to cull extra data.
 
I toyed with it back in November too but gave up because every update required a huge re-formatting before I could apply formulas to cull extra data.
Dalin should be making his final turn soon.

ETA bingo. Update caught him just as he was turning. The rankings on the left aren't updated as often as the boat positions though so the data is old. Dalin has under 55 nm to the finish line. That's ~ 2.5 Hrs but a bit longer if we allow for slowing down in lighter winds nearer the coast.

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I'm having issues with the Alex Thomson tracker locking up at times but here is an overview of the fleet.
Interesting weather patterns. Pip Hare has much better speed today, over 15 kts.
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If I've read the table correctly, the lead couple of boats will be subject to a falling tide. Will this make much of a difference?
 
Vendee Globe - looking at routes on official tracker towards finish plus VG estimates
Dalin has less than 40 nm direct to finish but he will turn once or twice more to get there. Burton will need to turn at some point. Meanwhile Herrmann is chasing him down. Wind overlay in the diagram isn't working at the moment. See below for latest article from VG with estimates.
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ETA Charlie is on his way but it will be between 19:00 and 19:45 by the look of it.
 
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