US prepares for worst-case scenario with Pakistan nukes- Interesting Read

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by ghost_us, Aug 3, 2011.

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  1. Open Channel - US prepares for worst-case scenario with Pakistan nukes

    I'm sure this has been thought about long and hard by more countries than just the US.

    This opens a lot of questions beyond the obvious. The what if's are numerous and complex. What if the US succeeds, or has a coalition to perform the actions and succeed. What if they fail, what if Pakistan would actually launch against India.

    Some of the chatter on the pakistan military web forums seems to think that it may actually be possible"

    US Planning to Snatch Pakistan's Nukes

    Anyone know if the US is tasked with helping Pakistan regarding QRF for guarding the nukes? This is indeed an interesting scenario.
  2. didnt like reading that bit, have the Pakis really got them spread out all over the place with so many diff units???

    sounds like they are passing them around to the leading mil/security hard-men as personal issue to keep them happy. and with what delivery systems are they such deployed?

    if they have, with a bit of luck they will nuke themselves if they fall out with each other.................(see what i did there)
  3. I would have thought the Chinese and Indians will have the last say on what the US does in this area. I can't see either of them tolerating Pakistan going tribal and nukes start popping up in the wrong hands.
  4. The US gives Pakistan over a Billion Dollars a year in aid, which is probably like a western country getting about 100 Billion. I think there is far more going on behind closed doors with the two of them than we are led to believe.
    Having seen what the West can to to a countie's infrastructure I don't think even they would be dumb enough to take on the US in a war, Nukes or not.
    Still, I could be wrong in which case Pakistan will end up as a big glass car park.
  5. Which brings up an interesting point in the article. The "who done it" factor. With Pakistani nukes going missing it may not be exactly crystal clear who snatched them. One of the posts in the Pakistani military website spoke to having dispersed warheads mixed with dummy warheads on a rotation and how much confusion something like that would cause.

    It's interesting to think about how China would react. It's been said by China that Pakistan is "their Israel" and that solidarity would be shown. That said however, certain aspects of Pakistan that irk the US also irk China ie: Xinjiang.

    What the take away from all this is that the primary reason the US is in Pakistan to begin with. 1. Deny safe haven for terrorist 2. Stop Pakistan's nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of extremists.

    There is also a lot of nervous reaction from India especially with regards to the US operating without "open" consent within Pakistan and that any attack in or near a nuclear site may be construed as coming from India.
  6. The biggest risk isn't militant seizure but somebody really nuts, even by Pindi's psychotic standards, getting Kayani's job. That'll be a hard event to identify, Mushie himself was a pretty loose cannon before he calmed down in power.

    Then all bets are off, deterrence really won't work and they are rated #1 first strike risk. Pakistani military forums are frightening even in English I hear they are even more bonkers in Urdu. These guys have convinced themselves they can survive a nuclear exchange with India because of their bumpy terrain, the love of Allah and genocidal warfare is in their fairly recent history. They are not playing the madman.

    The warheads are reportedly, code protected, disassembled and regularly moved all over the place. I think seizure is a fantasy, at best would only mitigate the threat as complete success is a no hoper, at worst it could provoke a launch and WWIII. Barry is sensible to play down any talk of it, after Abbotabad Pindi is damned jumpy.

    The last ditch in reality is probably a massive US first strike followed by practically suicidal confirmation raids. And no India and China won't get much warning if any.
  7. I don't think the Chinese will be concerned if it all go tits up on the Pakistan/South Afghan boarder, and I can't see there will be warheads stored in this area, too much of a risk of them being thrown back in their face.
    If however the trouble starts moving east, and bubbles up in the traditional hot areas like Kashmir, that's starting to get a bit close to home for the Chinese, not just the weapon threat, but hard line religious influence on their southern regions. I can see the Chinese inviting them to FO back home.

    India and China also have some big military and commercial deals, India has a booming economy and doesn't let religion get in the way of business. India is also investing in aircraft carriers, and modernisation of its military.

    I mentioned to our friend AK the Afghan, both countries (Pak/Afg), had better take a broader view of their tribal bitch fight, and take care not to involve their giant neighbours. If it does go postal Nato SOP's won't be used, it will be a bit more rudimentary than that. And if they are winging about the US not getting their passport stamped now, they will find the Chinese can be very impolite when it comes to dealing with individuals they perceive as a threat. Oh and 'The Peoples Party' doesn't do religion.
  8. And don't forget the Saudis, their alleged involvement in and funding of the Pakistani deterrent means they won't want to see their ace in the hole get snatched by the US. They may be able to be bought off but it's not going to be cheap.

    Of course, the most destabilising thing Pakistan has to deal with is a resurgent Afghanistan and the struggle for Waziristan. Which we're currently supporting. Whoops.
  9. Pakistan is probably the most bonkers country on the planet a serious plan is to retreat into afgahistan to survive the Indian first strike slightly better than duck taping multiple trauma plates to yourself to survive multiple .338 hits but not by much.
  10. Pakistan will only use nukes if its province of Punjab is threatened, otherwise the other minority provinces are of no importance to them, so it doesnt really matter if a Pashtun,bolochi or a Sindhi gets killed or attacked.

    Pakistan will never risk loosing its nukes to the Jihadis, instead Pakistan only uses the Jihadi network in Afghanistan and the Pashtun regions, to keep the masses under control and its very much in control of them.

    United States needs to isolate Pakistan from the world and they are good at that, but its amazing how the US avoids placing Pakistan onto its sanction list but loves to place secularists like Qadafi onto them.
  11. This was an interesting read until your contribution. With Jihadi's and other extremist organisations well entrenched in Pakistan I suggest there is an extremely high risk that one or more of these weapons will one day end up in the wrong hands, and probably with collusion from within ISI.
  12. Pakistan is not going to hand over Nukes to Jihadis, if that was so, they would have planted jihadis as their ministers throughout their settled areas, but they are not stupid to do so, they will only give Jihadis authority over regions, they fear would go against Pakistani interests hence Taliban in Afghanistan/Pakhtunkhwa and FC in Bolochistan.

    Most of the Jihadi supporters in Pakistan are clean shaven, dressed in suits and dont even support their version of Islam, the ISI will never put the Taliban nor any Jihadi incharge of its HQ and Punjab/Karachi, there are even moderate Pakistanis who only support suicide bombings in Afghanistan but consider it Haraam in Pakistan.

    Its called regional politics under the disguise of spirituality!
  13. Lets have less of the abuse, this is Current Affairs not the Naafi.

    I merely pointed out that your earlier post was bollox. Why should any organisation risk assembling dirty bombs etc when the full and real article could be quite easily had by using contacts within the Pakistan military or intelligence world. As for your comment abut hollywood movies try reading this:

    Swedish man arrested after trying to split atoms in his kitchen - Telegraph
    It appears he was trying to cook his Sunday roast by using a DIY nuclear reactor in his kitchen. Not the subject of a fictional thriller.
  14. Forastero

    Forastero LE Moderator

    AK, count to ten before you hit the send button and stop calling people *****. This is CA not the Naafi.
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