US National intelligence estimate: "we are losing."

Is this estimate?

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  • BS

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  • Not public yet, so won't say

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#1
Dallas News

Georgie Anne Geyer said:
Georgie Anne Geyer: 'Forgotten' war in Afghanistan awaits Obama

05:00 AM CST on Monday, December 29, 2008

One problem beyond the miseries of the economy is going to bedevil President-elect Barack Obama: the Afghan war. Even while the Iraq situation is vastly improving, the conflict in Afghanistan is in a downward spiral that brooks no optimism. We're losing it.

Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, writing in The New York Times, cites leaks of a recent National Intelligence Estimate showing that we are losing because of "a lack of Afghan competence; a half-hearted Pakistani commitment to the fight; a shortage of American, NATO and International Security Assistance Force troops; too few aid workers; and nation-building programs that were designed for peacetime and are rife with inefficiency and fraud."
This is presumably the secret 'Grim' assessment referred to previously on threads here dating back to September.
Grim NIE to be kept secret
 
#2
a half-hearted Pakistani commitment to the fight
That's an old chestnut that keeps getting trotted out and to be honest gets my goat. There may be elements in the Pakistani Intelligence Services that collude with the Taleban and sections of the political establishment that support them, but the Army hates them like poison and they're taking casualties in the tribal areas trying to root them out.

Civil society in Pakistan doesn't work the way ours does: in the northern regions, it barely works at all. It's expecting a bit much to have them extend their writ all the way to the Durand Line when we struggled to exert Crown authority in South Armagh for so long. It's not for lack of heart, it's just that these things take time.
 

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