US military report warns collapse of Mexico is possible

(Planning on a Holiday in Mexico?)

U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible
By Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times
Posted: 01/13/2009 03:49:34 PM MST

EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., is one of the Defense Departments combat commands that includes members of the different military service branches, active and reserves, as well as civilian and contract employees. One of its key roles is to help transform the U.S. military's capabilities.

In the foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the USJFC commander, said "Predictions about the future are always risky ... Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America."

The report is one in a series focusing on Mexico's internal security problems, mostly stemming from drug violence and drug corruption. In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar alerts about Mexico.

Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who "are in denial about what is happening in Mexico."

Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon instructed his embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico.

The U.S. military report, which also analyzed economic situations in other countries, also noted that China has increased its influence in places where oil fields are present.

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Book Reviewer
It's all about the drugs and organised crime. Easiest answer is to kill all the dealers, growers and shippers, surely?
so no more pointy hats or salsa dips ?

And to ammend a quote from the life or Brian

What have the mexicans ever done for us ?
Taffnp said:
What have the mexicans ever done for us ?
er, f*ck all, thats what they've done for us. Thats why dosing them with a non persistent nerve agent makes sense.
Biped said:
It's all about the drugs and organised crime. Easiest answer is to kill all the dealers, growers and shippers, surely?
Or legalise it and tax it. By any metric you can think of, the US "War on Drugs" has utterly failed.

And the Mexicans are getting really rather upset with the US; any collapse of their state will be funded by the enthusiasm with which the average American citizen stuffs themselves with drugs, and to add insult to injury any narco who can afford it ships in some fancy hardware from the somewhat less than scrupulous weapon dealers in the US.
Average American citizen? sounds like you've been partaking of Colombias finest nasal powder
I played this game already... one of the last Tom Clancy Ghost Recon offerings my little cousin had for his x-box. In all seriousness, Mexico is not going to collapse as a nation because of some conflict with narcos. If anything, the ongoing fight will bring them together.
Easy ways to deal with narco crimes:

a. Target the producers and dealers in their home jurisdictions.

Fail. See FARC, Medellin and Cali cartels, Taliban et al

b. Target the distribution networks which deliver the product to the end user.

Fail. See ever-increasing volume of drug imports into the West. Note particularly falling street prices, in real terms, of pretty much any narcotic.

c. Target the end user (cf "The War on Drugs").

Fail. See consistent drug use by significant minority of population plus huge volume of crime associated with the need to generate finance for end users to purchase drug products. See also thorough socialisation of "soft" drugs across class and economic boundaries.

d. Legalise and regulate an activity which quite a lot of people seem to want to indulge in.....

The main reason places like Mexico and Colombia are less than stable is the criminal industry associated with the delivery of drugs to a highly demanding market in the USA and elsewhere in the West.
Khyros said:
If anything, the ongoing fight will bring them together.
Direct quote from a senior Colombian narco officer:

"OK. I earn a few hundred $ a month. A man will come to me and give me $50,000 not to patrol a specific area, or if I do, give him 24 hours notice. if I refuse, he will rape and kill my family in front of me before killing me, slowly. Not a hard decision."

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