US intelligence: Iran nuke program frozen since 2003

#1
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/03/iran.nuclear/?iref=mpstoryview

Iran halted work toward a nuclear weapon under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015, a U.S. intelligence report says.

A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with "high confidence" that the Islamic republic stopped an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003.

The estimate is less severe than a 2005 report that judged the Iranian leadership was "determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure."

But the latest report says Iran -- which declared its ability to produced enriched uranium for a civilian energy program in 2006 -- could reverse that decision and eventually produce a nuclear weapon if it wanted to do so.

Enriched uranium at low concentrations can be used to fuel nuclear power plants, but much higher concentrations are needed to yield a nuclear explosion.

"We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely," the report says. A more likely time frame for that production is between 2010 and 2015, it concludes.

Iran has insisted its nuclear program is strictly aimed at producing electricity, and the country has refused the U.N. Security Council's demand to halt its enrichment program.

Monday's report represents the consensus of U.S. intelligence agencies. It suggests that a combination of "threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige and goals for regional influence in other ways," could persuade the Iranian leadership to continue its suspension of nuclear weapons research.

Available intelligence suggests the Iranian leadership is guided "by a cost-benefit approach," not a headlong rush to develop a bomb, the report concludes.
Well well well! Look's like a bit of a spanner in the works for Dubya and all the Dr Strangeloves.

However the question does arise...why would Bush declassify a report that quite frankly makes him look like a dick, especially after all his bellicose rhetoric about WW3 and Armageddon?

Maybe the intel community, aggrieved by being made a scapegoat for Iraq, decided to grow some balls and tell it straight for a change?

It would certainly explain why the war drums seem to have quietened of late.

One thing's for sure though, any sort of military action can be categorically ruled out. Not on the basis of this, no chance.

I bet all the right-wing nutjobs must be in a right quandary now lol.

Cant wait to see what Bill O'Reilly and co have to say on this one!

In fact I think i'll just head off over to Free Republic and have a look!
 
#2
Already done on another thread dude...
 
#3
Taz_786 said:
Well well well! Look's like a bit of a spanner in the works for Dubya and all the Dr Strangeloves.

However the question does arise...why would Bush declassify a report that quite frankly makes him look like a dick, especially after all his bellicose rhetoric about WW3 and Armageddon?

Maybe the intel community, aggrieved by being made a scapegoat for Iraq, decided to grow some balls and tell it straight for a change?

It would certainly explain why the war drums seem to have quietened of late.

One thing's for sure though, any sort of military action can be categorically ruled out. Not on the basis of this, no chance.

I bet all the right-wing nutjobs must be in a right quandary now lol.

Cant wait to see what Bill O'Reilly and co have to say on this one!

In fact I think i'll just head off over to Free Republic and have a look!
I was reading another report about it on Here.... , and it said, amongst other things:....... A new national intelligence estimate, originally due last spring, was delayed by the need to evaluate new information, the U.S. national intelligence director, Mike McConnell, said recently. But most analysts say that new information is mostly just Iran's political developments and recent U.N. findings on enrichment, already public......
My guess is that he sat on it for as long as he dare hoping that US [cough] 'Intelligence' could turn up something to back up his rhetoric, Donald Rumsfeld stylee ......



" STEPHANOPOULOS: s it curious to you that given how much control U.S. and coalition forces now have in the country, they haven’t found any weapons of mass destruction?

RUMSFELD: Not at all. If you think — let me take that, both pieces — the area in the south and the west and the north that coalition forces control is substantial. It happens not to be the area where weapons of mass destruction were dispersed. We know where they are. They’re in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat."
.....


You go to war with the lies you have, not the lies you want.








[Edited, because I'm thick]
 
#5
Read the tealeaves, people.

The release of this report makes it vitually impossible for the US to attack Iran for the remainder of Bush's term. Its release was the quid pro quo for the Iranians stopping backing various militias in Iraq and enabling the 'Surge' to succeed. It's part of the grand bargain that's been begotiated between the US and Iran over the last 6 months or so. All the sabre-rattling on both sides has really been part of the bargaining. Doubtless other elements of the 'deal' will come out over the next few months.
 
#6
This so called report seems at odds with a recent IAEA report and comments made by the regime which state the Iranians are presently running a cascade of 3000 centrifuges.
 
#7
So, so now you're on the side of the IAEA, T6? Talk about cognitive dissonance. This "so called report" is a National Intelligence Estimate. Complied by the NIC it is the highest level document the USIC provides. Surely someone with your alleged level of experience should know that, Trigger.

I'm certainly glad calmer heads somewhere seem to have prevailed- even if it is just for the time being. It is going to be interesting to find out who managed to persuade Dumbass that it's a good idea. However, I'm not convinced that the spin the administration are giving- that the halting of Iran's was in response to increased diplomatic and economic pressure- is the main cause. My immediate guess is that the Guardianship Council are keeping a tighter rein on Ahmadinejad. Even if Old Mahmood is in a hurry to end the world, the people who watch over him seem to prefer things the way they are.

Hopefully Condi and people who actually know a thing or two about Iran (other than the hairy-arsed exiles in Beverly Hills) have managed to point out that Ahmadinejad's govt is a house of cards and will fall apart on its own when external pressure doesn't act like a coalescent.
 
#8
I think its instructive that the IAEA and the Iranian regime seem to be saying the samething. Unfortunately the CIA has been in wrong in their estimates in the past and I think they are wrong once again.
 

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