US Dominance set to wane

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Dashing_Chap, Nov 21, 2008.

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  1. Afternoon chaps!

    Story on the Beeb:

    Some quotes:

    Link to the PDF document here (33mb)


  2. If I didn't have books from the late 70's stating the exact same thing (with Japan and Brazil being the 'new superpowers', the US unable to compete with the USSR/communist block economically or ideologically, and 'national liberation' movements in Iran and Vietnam having killed the idea of the US as the global liberator), and if the NIE had any track record of getting anything right ever, I might think it to be interesting. As it is...
  3. Were you as dismissive of the NIEs circa 2002?
  4. Its a bit of a non-story. Its pretty obvious that US power will wane, no one is really sure when though.

    They've only been a superpower for what, 70 years? No time at all really. The UK was a super power for longer than that. But, like the UK, and the Romans, and whoever else before, their power will certainly wane.
  5. You mean the bit about Iraq's WMD's? Kind of proves my point.

    Or the bit about the continuing US dominance? Point taken, but I'd contend that was written in a calmer time when a more objective view was made, whatever the events of 2001. Part of the 2008 report reads like a bad Tom Clancy book.
  6. Its worth noting they do say that the US will still be global no1 power in 2025-multi-polar world eh? That'll be 'fun', like 1914-45! the most peaceful periods in history have been the ones with a single dominant superpower-the Pax Britannica of the 19th century or the Pax Romanica being the obvious examples...
  7. Command_doh

    Command_doh LE Book Reviewer

    All Empires crumble. It's inevitable. Instead of the U.S. it was said we will be marching to China's drum by 2030 (as they choke off the Worlds remaining oil supplies for themselves), and it was predicted (pinch of salt) that Chinese will become the International language not too long after that.
  8. So the world’s premier superpower in 2030 will consist of a people who consider ‘dog’ as a delicacy & also have delusions of communist liberty. :roll:

    I think I prefer the sceptics!

  9. Real 'dog' sounds quite tasty when compared to MacDonalds or those hot dog stands abundant in US cities.
  10. Personally, I prefer a people with a proven track record of being a dominant world power and who are disposed to take a long view of world affairs. Dog's not that bad, depends on how it's cooked.

    I've also yet to meet a Chinese who has any delusions about Communism whatsoever.
  11. Ah but you see this is all bluff to distract everyone from things like:

    (Enter the following blue terms in search engines)

    USAF ABL 2009
    Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division 64 megajoules

    So it is favourable and auspicious to big up the prospects of:

    40 Million Cave Dwellers

    For it acts as incentives for extra development into the things you don't get to hear about...
  12. maybe US global dominance will wane after Obama takes power?
  13. As Topbadger says its a bit of a non-story as this has been predicted for many years. Hell, look at us, we are 90 years further down that slope than the Americans. The way things are going we could end up being asked to step down from the UN security council if it wasn't for the Nukes.

    History shows that great empires rarely collapse instead they denude over a period of 2-500 years and slowly become irrelevant as others take over.
  14. The key is to make sure that the powers that replace the declining power preserve and built and that power's achivements. That didn't happen with Rome and we got the Dark Ages, but did with Britain. The US will eventually decline, but it the replacement powers take the best of what the US achived and build on it there isn't a problem. A liberal democratic China and India, the former of which we'll likely see emerging over the next 20 years, shouldn't provide any major shock as they'll be singing from the same hyme sheet as the US. The trick will be for the US to remain the pre-eminent power until the only alternative to the liberal democratic system left, authoritarian capitalism, has breathed its last in Russia, China and the Middle East.
  15. The Empire that never was, or the American Century.
    The US will still be the largest industrial nation when I am dead and buried but will eventually slip from it's leading position.
    Just look how long it's took UK to drop from it's Pax Britannia role.
    The Leader of Nations goes first then the domination of the currency.
    China and India have massive internal problems. India has put a Flag on the moon but how many went to bed on an empty stomach last night, not too mention all those that starve to death on a daily basis.
    This week China was reported to have had 80,000 insurrections two years ago and that was from a Chinese government source. The ultimate capitalist economy but run by Communists and unless your a Party Member, forget any political aspirations.
    The US is the ultimate civil service state, I always liked the tale that the DEA will never put drugs out of business for then who is going to pay for those mortgages and collage fees ? Same with the Secret Service, in my time I have seen two US presidents shot, one fatally, and a third had a pistol stuck in his face, what you get for having civil servants run your protection.