US Dominance set to wane

#1
Afternoon chaps!

Story on the Beeb:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7741049.stm

Some quotes:

US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on global trends...

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge US influence.

It also says the dollar may no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflict...

Washington will retain its considerable military advantages, but scientific and technological advances; the use of "irregular warfare tactics"; the proliferation of long-range precision weapons; and the growing use of cyber warfare "increasingly will constrict US freedom of action", it adds.

Nevertheless, the report concludes: "The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant."

Nuclear weapons use

The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue.

But the latest Global Trends report says that rising economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multi-polar international system...

The EU is meanwhile predicted to become a "hobbled giant", unable to turn its economic power into diplomatic or military muscle. :roll:

A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict.

Global warming, along with rising populations and economic growth will put additional strains on natural resources, it warns, fuelling conflict around the globe as countries compete for them.

"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th Century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report says.

"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could re-emerge."

There will be greater potential for conflict in the future, the NIC says

Such conflicts and resource shortages could lead to the collapse of governments in Africa and South Asia, and the rise of organised crime in Eastern and Central Europe, it adds.
Link to the PDF document here (33mb)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/21_11_08_2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf

&c,

~D.C.
 
#2
If I didn't have books from the late 70's stating the exact same thing (with Japan and Brazil being the 'new superpowers', the US unable to compete with the USSR/communist block economically or ideologically, and 'national liberation' movements in Iran and Vietnam having killed the idea of the US as the global liberator), and if the NIE had any track record of getting anything right ever, I might think it to be interesting. As it is...
 
#3
parapauk said:
If I didn't have books from the late 70's stating the exact same thing (with Japan and Brazil being the 'new superpowers', the US unable to compete with the USSR/communist block economically or ideologically, and 'national liberation' movements in Iran and Vietnam having killed the idea of the US as the global liberator), and if the NIE had any track record of getting anything right ever, I might think it to be interesting. As it is...
Were you as dismissive of the NIEs circa 2002?
 
#4
Its a bit of a non-story. Its pretty obvious that US power will wane, no one is really sure when though.

They've only been a superpower for what, 70 years? No time at all really. The UK was a super power for longer than that. But, like the UK, and the Romans, and whoever else before, their power will certainly wane.
 
#5
whitecity said:
parapauk said:
If I didn't have books from the late 70's stating the exact same thing (with Japan and Brazil being the 'new superpowers', the US unable to compete with the USSR/communist block economically or ideologically, and 'national liberation' movements in Iran and Vietnam having killed the idea of the US as the global liberator), and if the NIE had any track record of getting anything right ever, I might think it to be interesting. As it is...
Were you as dismissive of the NIEs circa 2002?
You mean the bit about Iraq's WMD's? Kind of proves my point.

Or the bit about the continuing US dominance? Point taken, but I'd contend that was written in a calmer time when a more objective view was made, whatever the events of 2001. Part of the 2008 report reads like a bad Tom Clancy book.
 
#6
Its worth noting they do say that the US will still be global no1 power in 2025-multi-polar world eh? That'll be 'fun', like 1914-45! the most peaceful periods in history have been the ones with a single dominant superpower-the Pax Britannica of the 19th century or the Pax Romanica being the obvious examples...
 

Command_doh

LE
Book Reviewer
#7
All Empires crumble. It's inevitable. Instead of the U.S. it was said we will be marching to China's drum by 2030 (as they choke off the Worlds remaining oil supplies for themselves), and it was predicted (pinch of salt) that Chinese will become the International language not too long after that.
 
#8
So the world’s premier superpower in 2030 will consist of a people who consider ‘dog’ as a delicacy & also have delusions of communist liberty. :roll:

I think I prefer the sceptics!

-DC
 
#9
Dashing_Chap said:
So the world’s premier superpower in 2030 will consist of a people who consider ‘dog’ as a delicacy & also have delusions of communist liberty. :roll:

I think I prefer the sceptics!

-DC
Real 'dog' sounds quite tasty when compared to MacDonalds or those hot dog stands abundant in US cities.
 
#10
Dashing_Chap said:
So the world’s premier superpower in 2030 will consist of a people who consider ‘dog’ as a delicacy & also have delusions of communist liberty. :roll:

I think I prefer the sceptics!

-DC
Personally, I prefer a people with a proven track record of being a dominant world power and who are disposed to take a long view of world affairs. Dog's not that bad, depends on how it's cooked.

I've also yet to meet a Chinese who has any delusions about Communism whatsoever.
 
#11
Ah but you see this is all bluff to distract everyone from things like:

(Enter the following blue terms in search engines)

USAF ABL 2009
Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division 64 megajoules


So it is favourable and auspicious to big up the prospects of:

40 Million Cave Dwellers

For it acts as incentives for extra development into the things you don't get to hear about...
 
#13
As Topbadger says its a bit of a non-story as this has been predicted for many years. Hell, look at us, we are 90 years further down that slope than the Americans. The way things are going we could end up being asked to step down from the UN security council if it wasn't for the Nukes.

History shows that great empires rarely collapse instead they denude over a period of 2-500 years and slowly become irrelevant as others take over.
 
#14
Recruiting_Office_reject said:
As Topbadger says its a bit of a non-story as this has been predicted for many years. Hell, look at us, we are 90 years further down that slope than the Americans. The way things are going we could end up being asked to step down from the UN security council if it wasn't for the Nukes.

History shows that great empires rarely collapse instead they denude over a period of 2-500 years and slowly become irrelevant as others take over.
The key is to make sure that the powers that replace the declining power preserve and built and that power's achivements. That didn't happen with Rome and we got the Dark Ages, but did with Britain. The US will eventually decline, but it the replacement powers take the best of what the US achived and build on it there isn't a problem. A liberal democratic China and India, the former of which we'll likely see emerging over the next 20 years, shouldn't provide any major shock as they'll be singing from the same hyme sheet as the US. The trick will be for the US to remain the pre-eminent power until the only alternative to the liberal democratic system left, authoritarian capitalism, has breathed its last in Russia, China and the Middle East.
 
#15
The Empire that never was, or the American Century.
The US will still be the largest industrial nation when I am dead and buried but will eventually slip from it's leading position.
Just look how long it's took UK to drop from it's Pax Britannia role.
The Leader of Nations goes first then the domination of the currency.
China and India have massive internal problems. India has put a Flag on the moon but how many went to bed on an empty stomach last night, not too mention all those that starve to death on a daily basis.
This week China was reported to have had 80,000 insurrections two years ago and that was from a Chinese government source. The ultimate capitalist economy but run by Communists and unless your a Party Member, forget any political aspirations.
The US is the ultimate civil service state, I always liked the tale that the DEA will never put drugs out of business for then who is going to pay for those mortgages and collage fees ? Same with the Secret Service, in my time I have seen two US presidents shot, one fatally, and a third had a pistol stuck in his face, what you get for having civil servants run your protection.
john
 
#16
Was in China last month. Never saw any restraunts serving dog, they do however eat a LOT of fish, mostly you can choose your own from a tank. To be honest I think a lot of the stranger foods they just cook for gullible western tourists, although they all tucked into a tasty frog stew at one banquet I was at. Yummers!

Serious point: The one thing that strikes any visitor to China is the sheer scale of the place. I went to Guangzhou, Wuhan and Beijing, they're all VAST!
 
#17
In the short term (ie. 10 to 25 years) I do see a return to the mindset we had pre WW-2... willing to do business around the world but less likely to intervene militarily unless our trade or citizens are directly impacted. Far as long term goes... nothing lasts forever so the chances that the United States will continue to be the dominant power are obviously zero to none. However... when our capability does wane I do predict it will not be as a result of any foreign effort... rather it will occur when this nation turns on itself and crumbles from within. At the moment, every citizen be they from Texas or Oregon considers themselves Americans first and formost although there are widely varying norms and mores between the regions. Give a couple more divisive administrations and chances are folks from the parts in contrast to the ruling party will see themselves more of brand "X" than American... and that is where the problems will start.
 
#18
Khyros said:
Give a couple more divisive administrations and chances are folks from the parts in contrast to the ruling party will see themselves more of brand "X" than American... and that is where the problems will start.
corresponds with what I've read here & there about "red" & "blue" states and the large voting turnout might suggest that one side can't bear the other being in power
 
#19
Khyros said:
... it will not be as a result of any foreign effort... rather it will occur when this nation turns on itself and crumbles from within. At the moment, every citizen be they from Texas or Oregon considers themselves Americans first and formost although there are widely varying norms and mores between the regions. Give a couple more divisive administrations and chances are folks from the parts in contrast to the ruling party will see themselves more of brand "X" than American... and that is where the problems will start.
Very true of any state that "crumbled".
 

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