US and NATO’s Turkish nuclear conundrum.

During 2019 Turkey has moved further and further away from the US the West and NATO. Erdogan's purchase of S-400’s from Russia, despite clear warning from the US that this would potentially compromise the F-35, which has been bought by a large number of Western allies was a direct ignoring of that threat. It was also contrary to NATO policy which has created an awkward situation between Turkey and NATO. The result, Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program and cancellation of delivery of F-35’s to Turkey and a severe chilling of US Turkish relations

Despite protestations by Trump that he did not green light Turkey's recent aggressive deployment into Syria that is exactly what has happened. The US is now watching an ongoing destabilisation of the region: the huge resurgence of Russian power and influence in Syria/Middle East, Russia now has power projection capabilities in the region access to air base Hmeimim and port, Tartus. Russia’s resurgence in the Middle East facilitated by the drawdown of U.S. military forces inside Syria: the possible resurrection of daesh and likely infiltration back into Europe of Islamic jihadist terrorists: and the loss of any check on Iran’s ongoing activities in Syria.

Trump had issued a a statement that if Turkey conducted ‘unacceptable’ operations he could and would stop these by applying severe sanctions. The rapidly unraveling situation has now confirmed the warning given to Trump that any pullout of US troops from Syria threatened to lead to a serious strategic mistake and potential disaster for American interests in the region. Trump is now belatedly saying that he has issued an executive order to impose sanctions on current and former Turkish officials and is immediately freezing negotiations on a $100bn US-Turkey trade deal and also reimposing tariffs of 50% on Turkish steel.

Erdogan’s reaction to this.

Should Trump now try to increase further sanctions, as he had indicated he would there is a potentially major problem for him. The US has around 50 B61 nuclear bombes held at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey as part of a forward-deployed NATO nuclear response plan. These are now Erdogan’s US/NATO hostages. A situation is now rapidly developing where Turkey’s actions are becoming increasingly uncontrollable by the US, NATO, or Europe.
 
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During 2019 Turkey has moved further and further away from the US the West and NATO. Erdogan's purchase of S-400’s from Russia, despite clear warning from the US that this would potentially compromise the F-35, which has been bought by a large number of Western allies was a direct ignoring of that threat. It was also contrary to NATO policy which has created an awkward situation between Turkey and NATO. The result, Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program and cancellation of delivery of F-35’s to Turkey and a severe chilling of US Turkish relations

Despite protestations by Trump that he did not green light Turkey's recent aggressive deployment into Syria that is exactly what has happened. The US is now watching an ongoing destabilisation of the region: the huge resurgence of Russian power and influence in Syria/Middle East, Russia now has power projection capabilities in the region access to air base Hmeimim and port, Tartus. Russia’s resurgence in the Middle East facilitated by the drawdown of U.S. military forces inside Syria: the possible resurrection of daesh and likely infiltration back into Europe of Islamic jihadist terrorists: and the loss of any check on Iran’s ongoing activities in Syria.

Trump had issued a a statement that if Turkey conducted ‘unacceptable’ operations he could and would stop these by applying severe sanctions. The rapidly unraveling situation has now confirmed the warning given to Trump that any pullout of US troops from Syria threatened to lead to a serious strategic mistake and potential disaster for American interests in the region. Trump is now belatedly saying that he has issued an executive order to impose sanctions on current and former Turkish officials and is immediately freezing negotiations on a $100bn US-Turkey trade deal and also reimposing tariffs of 50% on Turkish steel.

Erdogan’s reaction to this.

Should Trump now try to increase further sanctions, as he had indicated he would there is a potentially major problem for him. The US has around 50 B61 nuclear bombes held at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey as part of a forward-deployed NATO nuclear response plan. These are now Erdogan’s US/NATO hostages. A situation is now rapidly developing where Turkey’s actions are becoming increasingly uncontrollable by the US, NATO, or Europe.
Move US forces and the Nukes to RAF Akrotiri, to hell with the the Turks.
 
The political and military posturing, the massive build up of arms and men, the increasing convoluted and almost un-fathomable chaos and mayhem that is decimating the middle east, and Asia can only have one outcome, total all out war, Putin, Trump, Erdogan, Assad, ISIS and on the fringes, Israel, all vying for some sort of control, to be top dog, all without any clear form or function of what they want, the humanitarian disaster that will eventually draw in as now, non combatant country's will further complicate it to a degree, that there cannot be an end by diplomatic means. Its Almost at that point. Britain's military, if sucked in will be decimated by overwhelming enemy numbers. ..(.The Swiss national guard is bigger that the British army.)

The situation has some similar aspects to the pre war posturing of the NAZI'S, in that the world stood by and let it happen, the outcome was a world war.
 
Marked excellent as in great post not excellent a in great news.

An unsurprising developement after an impetuous phone call from the White House to Erdogan made without thinking ahead or apparently discussing the ramifications with the Pentagon Chiiefs of Staff or at least with someone with a bit of common sense.

Moving the nukes, negoatiations about the US troop withdrawal, and the ramifications should have been done beforehand, What if Turkey's 2nd move is a full scale 'reinforcement' of Cyprus - required for operations in Syria, what will the US, Britain, or Nato do then? The Middle East is rapidly turning into a powder keg where we can only sit back and hope saner heads prevail.
 
Incirlik needs to be shutdown, and all US forces removed from Turkey. Edrogen is an Islamist punt, and Turkey is not really a NATO member worth defending anymore. After the Syria stunt, sling load needs to be cut. I would imagine the Turks are going to getting desperate in about a year.
 

Yokel

LE
Erdogen is more of a nationalist than an Islamist, although he does uses Islam as a cover for his power grabbing and autocratic style, threatening the secular constitution of Turkey.

What are the consequences for the West if he continues to move into Moscow's camp? Although Russians often go to Turkey, will the loss of Western European tourism be compensated for? I think not - and he has conflated regime survival with national interest.

What would a less impulsive US President have done differently?
 
Erdogen is more of a nationalist than an Islamist, although he does uses Islam as a cover for his power grabbing and autocratic style, threatening the secular constitution of Turkey.

What are the consequences for the West if he continues to move into Moscow's camp? Although Russians often go to Turkey, will the loss of Western European tourism be compensated for? I think not - and he has conflated regime survival with national interest.

What would a less impulsive US President have done differently?
I think Russia would find themselves with a stage 5 clinger they would eventually regret and hate. These foreign adventures might seem to bring more prestige to Moscow, but they are also expensive to conduct for long periods of time. Eventually leading to burnout.

America is at this point, but our economy is also a tad bit better than Russia’s. I would love to see how the Russian military budget is being thrown out the window to accommodate their new adventures. Remember the US military sacrificed modernization, to keep a large presence abroad.

The Turks are going to be in a pickle, as they are going to be cut out of the Western world.
They are turning into the mad dog.
 
The Middle East is rapidly turning into a powder keg where we can only sit back and hope saner heads prevail.

Don't be so bloody naïve, if saner heads Etc,............... the whole dam shooting match would never had happened. Wars are instigated by giant Egos, and corrupt religion, are you seriously thinking that the very people that started the slaughter, are going to sit down and have a change of heart, wars are won by boots on the ground, and generals safe in their billets, While politicians play Russian roulette with faceless lives. They are all as venal as each other. May they rot in hell for ever.
 
Don't be so bloody naïve, if saner heads Etc,............... the whole dam shooting match would never had happened. Wars are instigated by giant Egos, and corrupt religion, are you seriously thinking that the very people that started the slaughter, are going to sit down and have a change of heart, wars are won by boots on the ground, and generals safe in their billets, While politicians play Russian roulette with faceless lives. They are all as venal as each other. May they rot in hell for ever.
Oh, I'm not being naive at all, I have zero faith in any politician these days to do the right thing, that's why I said, 'hope' instead of 'we are doomed.'
 
Oh, I'm not being naive at all, I have zero faith in any politician these days to do the right thing, that's why I said, 'hope' instead of 'we are doomed.'

Understood, I see that we here in the UK are not the only folk who thing carrer politicians are C***S Arse***s, and Fuc***g wastes of oxygen. skin, rations, and time.
 

Nemesis44UK

LE
Book Reviewer
I think Russia would find themselves with a stage 5 clinger they would eventually regret and hate. These foreign adventures might seem to bring more prestige to Moscow, but they are also expensive to conduct for long periods of time. Eventually leading to burnout.

America is at this point, but our economy is also a tad bit better than Russia’s. I would love to see how the Russian military budget is being thrown out the window to accommodate their new adventures. Remember the US military sacrificed modernization, to keep a large presence abroad.

The Turks are going to be in a pickle, as they are going to be cut out of the Western world.
They are turning into the mad dog.
@LJONESY - You mention that the US sacrificed modernisation for budgetary reasons, are you referring to the cancelled F22 and Comanche programs?

Also, how big are Russia's cash reserves? Enough for a good few years yet. I seem to recall the US Afghan op costing a billion dollars a day.
 
Although Russians often go to Turkey, will the loss of Western European tourism be compensated for?
As a regular visitor to Turkey, and all round fan of the place and the people (if not the govt), Western European tourism has by and large been long gone for about the last 4-5 years already. The only nations still going in any numbers are the UK and the Russians. The Germans, Dutch, assorted Skandiweigians who used to flock there stopped after the "coup" and haven't really drifted back.

You go to Marmaris and it still looks busy (although the locals hate the Russians and fall over themselves to get the custom of the British instead - and when they've got tables of both in their restaurants it's noticeable which ones they go the extra mile for... - but up the Aegean coast there are resorts that have been like ghost towns for nearly half a decade now. Terribly sad for a lovely people, but then the coast is the westernised bit that tends not to vote for Mr Erdogan...
 
@LJONESY - You mention that the US sacrificed modernisation for budgetary reasons, are you referring to the cancelled F22 and Comanche programs?

Also, how big are Russia's cash reserves? Enough for a good few years yet. I seem to recall the US Afghan op costing a billion dollars a day.
The F-22 numbers were cut, the Comanche, Crusader etc were wonder systems that were canceled. The United States was so focused on insurgency, that conventional war fighting skills and the systems to fight them atrophied and were neglected.

I have no idea how much Russia has in the bank. But SU-57’s, Armata’s and all the other neat kit they want are expensive. Keeping thousands of troops deployed will eventually eat into their modernization budget.

The Russians have to maintain a decent standard of living, and their defence budget like ours is just a slice of the pie. Which has to be carefully allocated between many priorities. If you cut training and maintenance you have wonder toys that nobody knows how to use or that are broken. If you cut modernization you get stuck with outdated kit, that won’t compete against your adversary etc etc. Russia in their haste to one up America is also falling into the same trap we did.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
As a regular visitor to Turkey, and all round fan of the place and the people (if not the govt), Western European tourism has by and large been long gone for about the last 4-5 years already. The only nations still going in any numbers are the UK and the Russians. The Germans, Dutch, assorted Skandiweigians who used to flock there stopped after the "coup" and haven't really drifted back.

You go to Marmaris and it still looks busy (although the locals hate the Russians and fall over themselves to get the custom of the British instead - and when they've got tables of both in their restaurants it's noticeable which ones they go the extra mile for... - but up the Aegean coast there are resorts that have been like ghost towns for nearly half a decade now. Terribly sad for a lovely people, but then the coast is the westernised bit that tends not to vote for Mr Erdogan...
Ive been telling 0A to avoid the place but price (cheapness) matters on a girls week in the sun!
 
Ive been telling 0A to avoid the place but price (cheapness) matters on a girls week in the sun!
It's obviously currently unravelling at a rate of knots, but up to and including this summer just gone I'd have been entirely relaxed about letting her get on with it. No probs whatsoever, and genuinely lovely people. Jury's out for next year at the moment, but I've got a booking held...
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
Ive always been dead set against holidaying in Turkey. Dont ask its just a long held prejudice against what are really little more than 3rd world countries. I haven't been to Spain, Portugal, Italy or Greece. I have no interest in sitting on a beach for a week, did that as a kid in the early 70's and it holds no fascination for me. I'd obviously rather have a drunken week with mates in Scotland with some stalking thrown in than do a southern European country.
USA, Canada, Caribbean, yep, been to all and happy to go back again but the Caribbean holds less attractions than the others.
 
It's obviously currently unravelling at a rate of knots..........
Especially now that Erdogan is refusing to meet Pence or Pompeo.

Edit: 1 hour later the meet is back on again.
 
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As a regular visitor to Turkey, and all round fan of the place and the people (if not the govt), Western European tourism has by and large been long gone for about the last 4-5 years already. The only nations still going in any numbers are the UK and the Russians. The Germans, Dutch, assorted Skandiweigians who used to flock there stopped after the "coup" and haven't really drifted back.

You go to Marmaris and it still looks busy (although the locals hate the Russians and fall over themselves to get the custom of the British instead - and when they've got tables of both in their restaurants it's noticeable which ones they go the extra mile for... - but up the Aegean coast there are resorts that have been like ghost towns for nearly half a decade now. Terribly sad for a lovely people, but then the coast is the westernised bit that tends not to vote for Mr Erdogan...
Last time I went to Turkey was in early 2016 - was still bustling at the time....at least the main stream places...but even then I could see the signs of the slow down, compared to say my previous visits.
 

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