Ukraine in snap election warning

#1
The thread concerning the recent conflict in Georgia has become rather clogged with discussions more relevent to Ukraine. This would seem a sensible point to free up a thread all of its own...

BBC said:
Ukraine in snap election warning

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has threatened to dissolve parliament and call elections after the collapse of the country's ruling coalition.

Mr Yushchenko's supporters walked out in protest following new laws trimming the president's powers.

The laws were introduced by the pro-Russian opposition and backed by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's party.

Cont/...
 
#2
There will be presidential elections next year in Ukraine. And it looks as mr.Yushchenko would not be reelected.

Main battle will be between (generally pro-Moscow) mr.Yanukovitch and (formally pro-Western) ms.Timishenko. However ms.Timoshenko (as typical populist politiician) tries to be with the majority of the electorate. For example she has not said even one bad word toward Russia during and after the war in Georgia. She understands pretty well that confrontation with Russia would make her a political cadaver and that the USA, the EU, the NATO are not so strong as many thought. Her line no doubt will be balansed and maybe on some points even pro-Moscow.

So, hard-core nationalist seeing their imminent and fameless defeat try to do at least something to stay at power. But they will fail.
 
#3
KGB_resident,

Have you read Tymoshenko's article that appeared in Foreign Affairs last year?
 
#4
whitecity said:
KGB_resident,

Have you read Tymoshenko's article that appeared in Foreign Affairs last year?
I fear that no. She is a true fox - could say one thing, write quite opposite and think herself that 'you all are idiots, the only thing I wish is the power'.

She is a gambler. If she bids clubs then don't think that she is so religious. If she bids diamonds then really she could be a beggar. If she bids hearts then don't believe, she is hearless. And if she bids spades then it doesn't mean that she has strong army.
 
#5
KGB_resident said:
However ms.Timoshenko (as typical populist politiician) tries to be with the majority of the electorate. ...............

So, hard-core nationalist seeing their imminent and fameless defeat try to do at least something to stay at power. But they will fail.

You still haven't quite grasped the concept of democracy, have you Sergey.
 
#7
parapauk said:
So, hard-core nationalist seeing their imminent and fameless defeat try to do at least something to stay at power. But they will fail.
Heaven forbid Ukraine tries to find its own way in the world.
The real problem is that when what we think of as "Ukraine" does find it's own way it may decide that it is two countries. Do we use force to deny the East their desire for self-determination ? (Quick, quick before Russia does the same for the West !) Or do we stop all this mindless rhetoric, look up realpolitik in the dictionary and draw up some spheres of influence ?
 
#8
TangoFowerAlpha said:
KGB_resident said:
However ms.Timoshenko (as typical populist politiician) tries to be with the majority of the electorate. ...............

So, hard-core nationalist seeing their imminent and fameless defeat try to do at least something to stay at power. But they will fail.

You still haven't quite grasped the concept of democracy, have you Sergey.
The majority would like not to pay taxes. Responsible politician would never make such a promise but a poppulist could.

Ms.Timoshenko promised to pay compensations for lost savings after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Many voted for her party for this reason. In practice size of the compensation was tiny. People spent hours in endless queues. The paument caused finansial crisis.

It has its name - populism.
 
#9
KGB_resident said:
TangoFowerAlpha said:
KGB_resident said:
However ms.Timoshenko (as typical populist politiician) tries to be with the majority of the electorate. ...............

So, hard-core nationalist seeing their imminent and fameless defeat try to do at least something to stay at power. But they will fail.

You still haven't quite grasped the concept of democracy, have you Sergey.
The majority would like not to pay taxes. Responsible politician would never make such a promise but a poppulist could.

Ms.Timoshenko promised to pay compensations for lost savings after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Many voted for her party for this reason. In practice size of the compensation was tiny. People spent hours in endless queues. The paument caused finansial crisis.

It has its name - populism.
My point being that it is for the electorate to decide who is being responsible and who is being populist. Not some autocrat in the Kremlin.

It might take time, but if left alone they will get there eventually. Lesson one being don't trust a politician who promises you money. :D
 
#10
KGB_resident said:
whitecity said:
KGB_resident,

Have you read Tymoshenko's article that appeared in Foreign Affairs last year?
I fear that no. She is a true fox - could say one thing, write quite opposite and think herself that 'you all are idiots, the only thing I wish is the power'.
Straight from the old Soviet mould. Same can be said of Putin and Saakashvili and ... and so on ...
 
#11
TangoFowerAlpha said:
My point being that it is for the electorate to decide who is being responsible and who is being populist. Not some autocrat in the Kremlin.

:D
... or in Washington.

Timoshenko's original votes base was in W.Ukraine, where she positioned herself as being even more nationalistic than Yuschenko. So, when president became an utter disappointment, his voters transferred their affections to Timoshenko, hence leap in her "popularity".

She stands a chance to become a new Ukrainian president but only because there is no one to choose from. Will her possible presidency save Ukraine from disintegration? Hardly. She is inept when it comes to ecomonic issues; she is greedy; and she clearly never heard an expression "You can fool some people sometimes, but you can't fool all the people all the time."

PS
Spoke to my family last night. For the first time in 16 years they are going to vote for the Communist Party... Had enough of "democracy" it seems...
 
#12
:)

Timoshenko indicated she might support Yanukovich if she will be allowed to remain a PM. And at the same time she let Yuschenko know that if he will deal with some assorted enemies of hers from his party coalition and if he will guarantee her a post of PM after the elections she might support him.

Basically, she is looking for a puppet-president that will allow her to be in full control yet in a shadow... Too clever?
 
#13
BBC reports Tue 16SEP08 said:
Ukraine's ruling pro-Western coalition has officially collapsed, the speaker of the Ukrainian parliament says.

President Viktor Yushchenko has been involved in a long-running dispute with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

The president's Our Ukraine bloc left the coalition earlier this month. Parliament now has 30 days to try to form a new ruling coalition.

If those efforts fail, Mr Yushchenko can dissolve parliament and call a snap election.

The Our Ukraine party pulled out of the coalition on 3 September after the Tymoshenko Bloc sided with the pro-Moscow opposition Party of Regions to pass several laws that Mr Yushchenko saw as a threat to his presidential powers.

"I officially declare the coalition of democratic forces... in Ukraine's parliament dissolved," parliament speaker Arseny Yatsenyuk announced on Tuesday.

"This has been long expected, but for me it is extremely sad," he told the chamber.

"I would not call this a political apocalypse, though it is true that it is another challenge of democracy. I hope we can overcome it."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7618147.stm
 

Attachments

#14
17 Sep 2008 2330hrs (local time)
BBC News Channel
“HARD TALK”
Hryhoriy Nemyria
6 days left to watch
Stephen Sackur talks to Hryhoriy Nemyria, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006mg2m
 
#15
"On August 30th 2007, more than 4,000 people gathered in front of the Romanian Embassy in Kiev, protesting Romanian territorial claims on an island located off the coasts of both countries. The dispute has been brought before the International Court of Justice." http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/newsbriefs/setimes/newsbriefs/2007/09/02/nb-11

"Indeed, the proclamation of independence for Kosovo - is not an end in itself for the Kosovars: the international community gave green light to Greater Albania…
No less active is the idea of Greater Romania. ... Romania claims entire Bessarabia (between the Prut and Dnestr), the southern part of which is currently in Ukraine. No less important is Rumanian claim to Bukovyna South Bukovina is now part of Romania, while the North belongs to Ukraine." http://translate.google.co.uk/trans...%D0%B1%D0%B8%D1%8E&start=20&hl=en&sa=N&pwst=1

Yury Boiko (Ukrainian MP): "Let me remind you that the President of Romania Mr. Basescu said that his country has a claim to our South Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina." http://translate.google.co.uk/trans...%D0%B1%D0%B8%D1%8E&start=20&hl=en&sa=N&pwst=1

Bessarabia, Bukovina, Snakes island became part of Ukraine in 1940.

"Transcarpathia. If Kiev would not start dialogue with the Ruthenian (Rusins) organizations, they do not exclude the most unpredictable consequences." http://translate.google.co.uk/trans...%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B&start=10&hl=en&sa=N&pwst=1
 
#16
With Afghanistan and Iraq not quite over yet, recent fiasco in Georgia, Azerbaijan announcing it puts NABUCCO on hold, economic crisis, I thought US finally gave up putting it's boot in it... It appears, not.

Yuriy Lutsenko (Interior Minister of Ukraine): I am aware of a plan for the destabilization of the situation in the Crimean peninsula called “300 Spartans”. (Hollywood anyone?) It was developed by the Presidential Secretariat (Yuschenko) and proposes the organization of provocations directed against the Russian Black Sea Fleet. These provocations are aimed at causing a chain reaction that might lead to unpredictable consequences." According to him, the plan is to recruit 300 West-Ukrainians and send them to Crimea to take lighthouses on a territory of the Russian Fleet, hoping the Russians will react accordingly which will give Ukrainian government an excuse to declare state of emergency and pick up fight with Russia while portraying Ukraine as a victim in need of NATO help (deja voo?).

In addition, on the 6 of October 3 regiments of the interior ministry were send to Uzhgorod (Transcarpathia, West Ukraine) to suppress Rusins national movement.


It seems Ukraine is going to be the next hot-spot, question is when? Is it going to happen before or after US presidential elections?
 
#17
Via Kiev News Blog A Carrier Fleet Grows In Ukraine
SALT LAKE CITY, Utah -- Russia has an offer that neighboring Ukraine can't refuse, and that won't make Russia look like a bully. Russia wants to built aircraft carriers, but the shipyards best suited for that kind of work are in Ukraine.

At the moment, Ukraine and Russia are at odds over several major issues. One is possession of the Crimean peninsula (in southern Ukraine), and the Russian naval bases there.

Currently, Russia has leased Crimea, but the lease expires in nine years, and Ukraine does not want to renew, no matter how much the Russians huff, puff and threaten.

Ukraine does not trust the Russians, especially after what Russia has done to neighboring Georgia (invaded, then annexed part of Georgia).

So some Russian legislators have come up with a clever solution.

It goes like this. Russia would provide contracts to build aircraft carriers in Ukrainian shipyards, as well as cash to get those yards back in business (they are closed for lack thereof).

In return, Ukraine would extend the Crimean lease. Currently Russia stations 50 warships (most of them small, and many just patrol boats) and 80 aircraft in Crimea.

But there is a large Russian population in Crimea, and Russia would like to stay. It's also becoming clear that the EU (European Union) was shaken up by what happened to Georgia, and especially by the way Russian just shrugged off EU protests.

The EU and the U.S. are making aggressive noises that Ukraine will receive more substantial (more than diplomatic) support in any future confrontation with Russia.

So now Russia is looking to use the carrot, rather than the stick, to get its way. The carrier contract solution works out for everyone, except Western nations unhappy with Russia having a carrier fleet.

But that's a decade or more in the future, and the Russians have never shown any great capacity for effectively running aircraft carriers.

Source: Strategy World
 
#18
Under Bush DC has engineered strategic disaster on several fronts: mired in Iraq, Iranian containment failing, being dragged deeper into the widening Pushtun war, evidently out maneuvered in the Caspian and not least facing an ideological crisis as the free market God is revealed as a hollow idol. It would be wrong to blame bungling Bush for these woes and foolish to believe BO will miraculously right the ship of state; this is a systemic failure of the smug Washington consensus. After hitting bottom America will re-invent itself within a decade but in the meantime it will be a nation much less eager to go abroad to slay more dragons. Necessity hast dictated a retreat from forward leaning posture in Eastern Europe. K Street will be busy calming an enraged US electorate rather than with color coded revolutions.

Moscow is in much worse financial shape than DC and has severe structural problems but it's on its way out of the wringer rather than in. Slapping down reckless Misha has demonstrated that The Kremlin is not to be trifled with. It has the useful option of limited conventional warfare but it's Russian soft power that will be decisive here. Russia is Ukraine's largest trading partner. Kiev's military industrial complex retains Soviet era dependencies on Moscow. Russian is widely spoken and cultural links remain strong. The Kremlin's ambitions probably don't extend beyond retaining basing in the Crimea and extracting a modest geo-political tribute from Kiev.

Any realist in these circumstances will doubt the practical value of NATO membership. Support for membership of NATO in the Ukraine has never passed the low 20s and unsurprisingly dropped after five day war. Kiev lusts after a place in the EU gravy train and this remains a strong possibility if it avoids a Balkanising collision with Moscow. The likelihood is that Ukraine will pragmatically tilt Eastward in this election.
 
#19
Domovoy said:
:)
Basically, she is looking for a puppet-president that will allow her to be in full control yet in a shadow... Too clever?
Not really clever, she sounds as though she's been basing her tactics on Putins "Big book of hanging on to power"
 
#20
Not exactly... 1. Russia MIGHT make an offer...; 2. "Since Russians are building a dock for surface ships with displacement of more than 100 thousand tons in Severodvinsk the cooperation with the Ukrainian enterprises, does not seem to go beyond the delivery of individual units and assemblies." (12.10.08) http://66.102.9.104/translate_c?hl=...pwst=1&usg=ALkJrhi8A75pL0AU33LYISL-iERD4xM6zg

Ukrainian president currently enjoys about 4% popularity. After Timoshenko became a bit of a loose cannon, Yuschenko is viewed by US as the only fully reliable puppet-in-government and Washington is desperate to keep him in power at any cost. With the looming elections and the growing separatist movements in at least three parts of the country the most sure way to preserve Yuschenko-US hold on Ukraine is to organise provocations in troubled regions (even if it means a shoot-out with Russia), declare state of emergency and direct presidential rule.

After Lutsenko (Interior Minister of Ukraine) went public about president's plan for "300 Spartans" some in Ukraine like to think that the danger has past. http://zik.com.ua/en/news/2008/09/09/149351

But Lutsenko is on Timoshenko's team and she is notorious for political prostitution and would do anything for a bit of a power grab.
 

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