UKIP to become serious force by next election?

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
#1
UKIP have now come second in the last two by-elections. I think it is reasonable to assume they will pick up councillors in the May local council elections.

The main parties all seem to be ineffectually lead:

-- Cameron concentrates on irrelevancies like gay marriage and Lords reform when the economy should be his only priority.

-- Milliband concentrates on the broken 'we can spend our way out of trouble' policy.

-- Clegg is increasingly coming across as a lightweight, opportunistic politician unable to come to terms with the full responsibilities of power.

So, can UKIP break through at the next general election and put a dozen MP's into parliament? It would cause a seismic shift in UK politics.

Wordsmith
 
B

Biscuits_AB

Guest
#2
You'd like to think that there exists a serious alternative to the 'mirror' image clones that we've had in Westminster over the decades, but I have a niggling suspicion that come the day, then we'll revert to the known. It's what we do. All the time.

I'd love to see a serious and new main party in power, but we've become so use to mediocrity, we're too scared to try anything different.
 
#3
The ground is definitely moving. UKIP's considerable success here is being understated on the BBC, as one might expect, but the underlying message is undeniable - they are becoming a force to be reckoned with. What the Eastleigh results also show is that people are now demonstrating with their feet that they are fed up with the old Right v. Left politics - they want a change.

Incidentally, the Tory candidate's post-results face was quite a picture!
 
#4
Italy are moving away from the traditional left/right bunfight as people are disillusioned with the traditional parties and allegiances so heres hoping.
 
#5
Not a chance. People were protesting that they didn't like any of the parties when they voted for ukip. The problem with politics at the moment is, that none of the main parties have a leader who is fit to tie his shoelaces. All of them are too young, and don't have any proper experience of anything other than politics. Debating in the Oxford Union is no match to running companies and living with the reality of modern Britain.

People cannot differentiate between any of them now. They are all too scared to say something which might upset anyone. I'm not actually anti politicians, however the reason why ukip did well was because they were different. Come election time, parties will be attacking each other, and will appear to not be the same for a little bit. I'd also like to add that Boris Johnson would in my opinion be the only shot the Conservatives have of actually winning the next election, hes different and has popular support.
 
E

EScotia

Guest
#6
It'll take a lot longer than a couple of years for UKIP to become anything other than a protest vote but only if they can maintain their momentum. Time will tell.
 

Cold_Collation

LE
Book Reviewer
#8
I think ideas of Left vs Right are outdated unless you're talking about the dyed-in-the-wool party supporters.

The Tories' issue is that they're trying too hard to be 'soft Labour'. Cameron is trying to be centrist and not realising/refusing to see that a huge of people truly want realistic and hard-edged (in the sense that we know where we stand, and so do others) policies on the likes of Europe and immigration, and not just soft-soaping and kicking the can along the road.

Labour, meanwhile, only got elected by stealing the Tories' manifesto. They'll get in next time because the 'cuts' (which in reality aren't there) affect selfish concerns rather than the country, not because a majority of people 'prefer' Labour but because it's bread and circuses.

We bounce between Labour ****ing up and the Tories tidying up economically - remember, Thatcher was losing the next election until the Falklands happened.

We need something to break the cycle. Unfortunately, we're stuck with a coalition government at the moment. And Cameron; the Tories wanted a 'Blair' of their own at a time when they were too dull to realise that the country was sick of Blair. Idiots. Davis was the better choice. Cameron, even if he isn't (and I'm not offering opinion either way, here) looks ineffectual.
 

Travelgall

MIA
Kit Reviewer
#9
Yes, because the centre ground is shifting, Professional Politicians are the heads of all the Political Parties and most of their MP's have done bugger all except getting elected. The real world might be fighting back. That said UKIP will split the right of center like the SDP did the left.

I have to admit that they will be getting my vote this time. But only because they are the only ones willing to take a scythe to state spending and I'd love to stick it to Van Rumpoy. I'm fairly uncomfortable in their company. Labour couldn't run a bath and the woolly inbetweners are Communists with a sexual attraction to trees.

But no matter who is in, right now UK PLC needs to find new business fast. Because the EU is dying economically.
 
#12
I think ideas of Left vs Right are outdated unless you're talking about the dyed-in-the-wool party supporters.

The Tories' issue is that they're trying too hard to be 'soft Labour'. Cameron is trying to be centrist and not realising/refusing to see that a huge of people truly want realistic and hard-edged (in the sense that we know where we stand, and so do others) policies on the likes of Europe and immigration, and not just soft-soaping and kicking the can along the road.

Labour, meanwhile, only got elected by stealing the Tories' manifesto. They'll get in next time because the 'cuts' (which in reality aren't there) affect selfish concerns rather than the country, not because a majority of people 'prefer' Labour but because it's bread and circuses.

We bounce between Labour ****ing up and the Tories tidying up economically - remember, Thatcher was losing the next election until the Falklands happened.

We need something to break the cycle. Unfortunately, we're stuck with a coalition government at the moment. And Cameron; the Tories wanted a 'Blair' of their own at a time when they were too dull to realise that the country was sick of Blair. Idiots. Davis was the better choice. Cameron, even if he isn't (and I'm not offering opinion either way, here) looks ineffectual.
Nail, hammer and head.

The reality is that the parties are intrested in soundbites so as to get elected rather than policy to fix the problem. Whatever the Tories do, right or wrong, Labour will pour cold water over it claiming the very over used and dated "out of touch" tag line. Ask Balls for a actual policy and he can' t answer without giving the part line of spin.
UKIP will take votes from all parties in the coming elections but as a direct threat as to who will take the baton of power next time?, i don't think so.
As apathy to the system of the politics we have today grows more and more voters will move to the extreams, right or left, thus splitting votes and seats. More mutually agreed governments are to follow I feel.
 
#13
Both Tory and Labour parties are the opposite sides of the same "third-way" coin. The Lib-Dems live on the edge of that coin.

In other words, they're all broadly centrist parties, with a slightly different "spin" as a nod in the direction of the roots.

The reason that there are no longer real left/right or up/down or anything else policies on the manifestos of British parties is simple.... If you have them you will lose to a broadly centrist party. Simples.
 
#15
Another problem being there are enough people of my generation who are stoutly Labour because of the whole "cool britannia" thing in the late 90's which they were all swept up in, as well as a large chunk of them being dependant on benefits, and the ones that aren't still defend those who are if any cuts to welfare or work for benefits programs are suggested. I don't really like the current government (though I do believe they are at least trying to do something) and I despise Labour even more, I'd love to see another new strong party be voted in but it won't happen, Labour will unfortunately be our next government.
 
#16
The reason that there are no longer real left/right or up/down or anything else policies on the manifestos of British parties is simple.... If you have them you will lose to a broadly centrist party. Simples.
Wholly right. But the outcomes of that are voter apathy and extremism. Meanwhile, the elected centrist party (whether light blue or pink) continually fails - nay, sets out to fail - to get to grips with the real issues.

Here's a question: Brown bloated the public sector to the point where one in 10 of the country's official population - six million - works for the state. Arguably, none of them bring money into the country. Now, total up those of pre-employment age. Add those on the dole, those sick, those pretending to be sick or professional dolies, and the retired. How many have you got, and how many does that leave working for 'UK Plc' and bringing money in?

I don't know the answer but I bet it's one the politicians wouldn't want bandied about. But that's a figure that, arguably, the coalition should be laying the blame at Labour's door for... and doing something about it.

That's my agenda, not gay marriage. I have quite a number of gay friends who happen to agree that there are rather more pressing issues at the moment.
 
#18
The problem is, most politicians are trying to pretend to be Blair witout actually having the guts to do what he did. He came into this country on a landslide with popular policies, and then he went about doing what he wanted. He now claims that he wished he's gone further. Now I could sit here forever more, and pick holes in what he did - but the truth is this. He was willing to do what was unpopular because he wanted to/thought it was right.

Cameron/Clegg/Milliband are all modelling themselves on his, with one big problem. They are spineless. Would any of them invade a country... Not likely. Now I'm not saying Iraq was a smart move (even though I personaly think it was right, but the execution was wrong), but we need someone who is willing to actually make a stand and do something.

We have some major issues - Europe, the economy, Islamic nations... And all we ever seem to do is take the middle/safe option. What the country is crying out for is for someone to take a stand. And dare to do what they think will be best. Putting a plaster on won't fix it, what we might need to do is have an operation which risks losing an arm to get it right.
 
#19
Another problem being there are enough people of my generation who are stoutly Labour because of the whole "cool britannia" thing in the late 90's which they were all swept up in, as well as a large chunk of them being dependant on benefits, and the ones that aren't still defend those who are if any cuts to welfare or work for benefits programs are suggested. I don't really like the current government (though I do believe they are at least trying to do something) and I despise Labour even more, I'd love to see another new strong party be voted in but it won't happen, Labour will unfortunately be our next government.

Barring something on the scale of Op. Corporate or a £5k handout to every home in the country in election week... Probably our next several
governments.

The only thing that I can see realistically changing that is Scottish independence.
 
M

MrsBee

Guest
#20
Possibly, the youth and young demographic 18-25 like myself are fed up of "economy stalling Tories" "bankrupt us labour" and "no backbone lib dem", many of my aquantances have decided UKIP is a vote they rather give than waste as in previous elections. The young demographic won't be enough to change the outcome but it will ruffle some bank benchers feathers possibly.
 

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