UKIP comes 2nd in South Sheilds

#1
BBC News - South Shields by-election: Labour retain seat as UKIP finish second

Labour have won the South Shields parliamentary by-election, retaining a seat they have held since 1935.

Labour saw their majority drop to just under 5,000 in Thursday's poll as The UK Independence Party finished second, with a 24% share of the vote.

The Conservatives were pushed into third while their Liberal Democrat coalition partners finished seventh.

The contest was triggered by the resignation of former Labour foreign secretary David Miliband as an MP.

Counting is under way in a series of council elections in England, where polls were also held on Thursday.



With the limp Dems coming seventh and losing their deposit is this going to be a big in road to mainline politics for UKIP?
 
#2
this is the locals - apathy levels are high and the 'fringe' parties tend to do well compared the gen elections

saying that, their appeal is growing and they could cash in on dwindling support for the Tories (as in the natural unpopularity of any govt in power regardless of party). I'm not sure how far UKip would take support off the lib dems though, given their fairly polar ideologies

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#4
The decline of the LibDems in certain parts of the Country (N) will give Nick Clegg & his party further concerns of their awful result.

The Conservatives have survived better in this area than expected according to most.

UKIP looks a strong contender to overtake LibDems, however consistency up & down the Country is what the Party needs so preliminary analysis to early to judge.
 
#5
this is the locals - apathy levels are high and the 'fringe' parties tend to do well compared the gen elections

saying that, their appeal is growing and they could cash in on dwindling support for the Tories (as in the natural unpopularity of any govt in power regardless of party). I'm not sure how far UKip would take support off the lib dems though, given their fairly polar ideologies

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scratch what I just said. reread the article and hadn't realised it was a by election. very interesting result

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#7
Well if the results overall encourage the Coalition to bring forward the EU referendum that's exactly UKIP's aim, however Mr Clegg & Co will drag the issue out for as long as possible.
 

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#9
I think UKIP will continue to be considered a protest party for as long as they describe themselves in that way, which they do.
 
#10
I think UKIP will continue to be considered a protest party for as long as they describe themselves in that way, which they do.
Or until they get themselves an MP or two
South Shields has never voted anything other than Labour but their majority has taken a hammering. The Cleggites lost their deposit
UKIP are taking votes from all the big three (although it is arguable that the LibDems aren't going to be one of the big three much longer)
I freely admit to using UKIP as a protest vote myself but I actually agree with an awful lot of their policies, I don't think I'm alone either.
UKIP is one of the best things to hit British politics in decades, they've got the mainstream parties arses twitching in a big way and that's got to be worthwhile.
 
#12
I feel protest vote parties, historically have succeeded in giving the big 3 a 'bloody nose' from time to time but I'm thinking they will need stitches and surgery after the next general election.
I can't see the lib dems loosing many votes to UKIP but the amount the big two will lose will push the lib dems back to 4th.
There's gonna be muesli flying and smear campaigns turned up to the max between now and then.
 
#13
...
I can't see the lib dems loosing many votes to UKIP ...
The big losers in this were the LibDems. This time round, Lab 51.5%, Con 11.5%, LibDem 1.4%; in 2010 it was Lab 52%, Con 21%, LD 14%; in 2005 it was Lab 61%, Con 17%, LD 19%.

The LD candidate tried to play down the result, saying that they had never done well in SS, a claim that the 2005 results show to be complete bollocks, they have gone from being the second place party to being deposit-forfeiting also-rans in the space of two contests.
 
#14
The big losers in this were the LibDems. This time round, Lab 51.5%, Con 11.5%, LibDem 1.4%; in 2010 it was Lab 52%, Con 21%, LD 14%; in 2005 it was Lab 61%, Con 17%, LD 19%.

The LD candidate tried to play down the result, saying that they had never done well in SS, a claim that the 2005 results show to be complete bollocks, they have gone from being the second place party to being deposit-forfeiting also-rans in the space of two contests.
Sorry, I was referring to the next general election, not the locals, the parties often take slaps like this at this time.
 
#15
Sorry, I was referring to the next general election, not the locals, the parties often take slaps like this at this time.
This was a Parliamentary by-election, not a local election. Granted the result is not a reliable predictor of results in a General Election, but the result is significant.
 
#17
The big losers in this were the LibDems. This time round, Lab 51.5%, Con 11.5%, LibDem 1.4%; in 2010 it was Lab 52%, Con 21%, LD 14%; in 2005 it was Lab 61%, Con 17%, LD 19%.

The LD candidate tried to play down the result, saying that they had never done well in SS, a claim that the 2005 results show to be complete bollocks, they have gone from being the second place party to being deposit-forfeiting also-rans in the space of two contests.
So Labor are down by 0.5% which they must find very disappointing considering they got a landslide here back in the 90s.

On the other hand the coalition vote has collapsed from 35% to 14% with both parties losing over 10%. Better hope that's a protest vote or team Dave is toast.

And UKIP took 25%, so I'd say they picked up maybe 5% of Old Labour voters, who may be instinctive lefties but have always hated the EU, are none to keen on immigrants and don't much like the Eds warmed over version of Thatcherism either.

Well its a safe Newish Labor seat, the economy is crap and the government is unpopular, particularly Team Clegg who used to be the goto protest vote party.

I've just had a thought: UKIP in coalition with either of the big parties, my that would be a spite fest. Unlikely while the UK sticks with first past the post and moves to something more representative which would give UKIP a fair sized block in parliament. As it is it is a pressure group.
 
#19
The gift of a by-election is that you can chuck all your resources at it and with a sound strategy, a good story and enough boots on the streets, you can influence a lot of voters to support you.

The Lib Dems have successfully employed this kind of approach many times over the years in by-elections. It's interesting to see them getting their backsides kicked on this occasion so convincingly and does not bode good for them in the next general election.

That said, in a general election, you have to spread your resources across the whole country or at least in all your target seats and that will be a much harder test of UKIP's true actual support.
 
#20
It will be more interesting too see result from less predictable councils, South Shields is die hard labour so the the scope for UKIP taking votes of them is more limited, so it maybe the case that the damage UKIP did to Tory and Libdem (proportional to damage to Lab) is an exagerated result

Saying that I expect LibDems to take a proper shoeing

But lets not forget these are local elections with a traditionally lower turn out, which itself tends to emphasis the vote of the politically active/aware/commited (with a larger "cant be arsed" level then at Generals) and people frequently feel more at liberty to cast a protest vote than at Generals when (essentially) we are voting for who we want as PM not a candidate

But in a General Election, UKIP may well form a group of MP's whose alliance becomes vital for a future coalition, as I think we may be entering a phase where we come to see coalition government as more normal than we are used too

But it will give the swing-o-meter a few outings over the next 48 hrs I guess as they try and extrapolate the results into a predicted general election result
 

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