UK Economic Recovery - When and How

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Ancient_Hush_Puppy, Nov 18, 2011.

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  1. Read a depressingly accurate piece in the Guardian Online yesterday that set out the decline in manufacturing industry over recent decades up to 2011 where it now accounts for 11% of the economy. My question to my fellow Arrsers(?) is when do you believe that economic recovery will occur and perhaps more to the point how will the UK achieve it?
  2. Alsacien

    Alsacien LE Moderator

    1. In about 18 months - 2 years time.
    2. When everyone stops blaming everybody else for home grown problems.
    • Like Like x 2
  3. I honestly don't see how a UK recovery can occur at all under current circumstances:

    - ballooning deficit
    - ballooning state expenditure
    - strangulation of private enterprise through taxation and regulation
    - government policy led by short-term electoral considerations, rather than long-term strategic necessity
    - economic uncompetitiveness due to the cost burden of the welfare state

    I wonder whether it would require a catastrophic event - an economic collapse & civil disorder - in order to effect the paradagim shift needed to rebalance the economy away from a socialist model?
    • Like Like x 6
  4. when ?..... probably never.

    how ? ... dont know.
  5. Yep.

  6. Wot He said.
  7. When we export more than we import and government spends less than its income.
    • Like Like x 1
  8. Well I try to buy British where I can but it's only possible for certain things. Probably a campaign to buy British goods wouldn't be allowed these days...
  9. A real recovery is eight to ten years away when everyone has grown sick of eating s@*t sandwiches and forgotten the reason why they were eating them in the first place.
    Then everything will be rosey untill the next one when the cycle starts again. Or China annexes the middle east and invades Australia which ever is sooner.
  10. It must be a very short list of things you are able to buy.
  11. Turnips, meat and potatoes.
    • Like Like x 2
  12. You reckon?

    British car (x2), British white goods, British furniture, the glass in my windows is British, the bricks my house is built of is British.....
    The list is endless. My telly is Korean and mp laptop is oriental too, apart from that the majority off things in my house were built in this country.
  13. If you were to replace them now could you buy British replacements?
  14. The heading 'manufacturing' hides a lot of things.

    First, with the explosion of the financial sector the proportion manufacturing plays in the economy is bound to shrink - it doesn't necessarilly mean we are making less.

    Secondly the 'oh dear we don't make anything anymore' with the implication that we should somehow get back into it and make widgets again while trying to compete with India and China on price is also wrongheaded.

    We need to make the premium stuff they can't do, and that depends on stimulating R&D budgets, investing in top class higher education and, most relevant to today, prising money out of the banks for worthwhile start-ups instead of more bloody mortgage and credit card ponzi schemes.

    It would also be good to change our culture a bit so that top scientists and engineers got more kudos than Wayne Rooney or X factor mongs.
    • Like Like x 4
  15. In the majority of cases yes.

    2x Land Rovers, still built here
    White goods, the hotpoint factory that built the washing machine is gone but there are UK alternatives
    Glass, still made by Pilkingtons in St Helens
    Bricks, still made in the UK

    When I want to buy something I genuinely research where its made and buy accordingly. Not always financially or technically possible but its worth the effort
    • Like Like x 1