U.S. Accepts Offer From Tehran for Broad Talks

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by alib, Sep 13, 2009.

Welcome to the Army Rumour Service, ARRSE

The UK's largest and busiest UNofficial military website.

The heart of the site is the forum area, including:

  1. Col Lang on Kessler in Wapo
    Considerable skepticism from Haaretz Tehran is wasting time by Amos Harel
    There's also some interesting maneuvering going on in Tehran. From Beruit's Daily Star Deal with Ayatollah Khamenei to make any progress with Iran By David Ignatius
    I do suspect the knuckle-draggers are stalling but are also distracted by the turmoil in Iran's internal affairs. Qom will keep its options open awaiting a moment of greater unity and strength. Barry will most likely discard his “artificial deadlines”, be vexed but too busy elsewhere to do much about it.

    As usual they have been busy little bees elsewhere.

    In JP Jumblatt: Iran should arm Lebanon
    From IranTracker Iranian Influence in Afghanistan: Recent Developments by Maseh Zarif, Ahmad Majidyar
    I find myself not far from this position
    Rethinking our Iran strategy by Robin Wright and Robert Litwak
    Truth is they have us in a tricky spot. Where I'd differ is in keeping friends close and enemies closer. There is a good deal of scope for leery low level cooperation, there's division and faction to be exploited and that can only be done up close. That in the end might be the best way to subvert Qom. Of course they know this, it's their MO.
  2. iran is a fairly stable nation in terms of politics despite the recent riots, its got a decent econemy and every iranian i have ever met has been an honest and good person. why they have been singled out as the world enders when they are next door to the saudi's and israeli's is beyond me, both are more volatile and destructive to the surrounding area and both have a more hardline aproach to religion. which leaves me to think that this isnt about what is right, but what can be gotten away with, pakistan has nukes and thats the base of the taliban with parts of the country under its control, we dont put sanctions on them? israel has commited some ridiculous atrocities over the past few years yet we dont say a word? ive never seen a country being railroaded into confrontation and hounded in the media quite so much as iran, please lets not go to war with them or impose sanctions on them like we did iraq in the 90's, why cant politicians just let it go!
  3. The Iranians are hardly passive victims in this. It's a malign regime that retains substantial support amongst a population that is at once often pro-Western and deeply paranoid about being trodden on by DC.

    And if DC had not made the mistake of biting off a great deal more than it could chew in two neighboring countries the USAF would have squished Qom some time ago. The problem is Iran unlike Iraq can and will bite back at the very tender parts of our interests in the Persian Gulf. The likely endgame, an escalation into a land war in Iran, isn't something the Pentagon even wants to contemplate until its current wars are safely put to bed.

    Iran is an active and belligerent player that retains long term imperial ambitions. It's also a notably rational actor with a fine sense of brinkmanship. They have made much mischief in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan to a far lesser degree. In this century in part due to our actions their influence has been greatly strengthened amongst the Pals and the Shi'a minorities of the Gulf Kingships. The Sunni Arab rulers of our dubious Arab allies are right to fear Qom's dreary revolutionary project.

    The Iranians share essentially similar goals in Iraq and Afghanistan to DC for very different reasons. It would be very much against Qom's interest for the old regimes to be returned to power, their friendships with the new guard in Baghdad and Kabul are older, deeper and more sincere than our expedient flirtation with these hastily constructed regimes. A friendly Baghdad especially significantly extends Iran's sphere of influence and freedom of action.

    Militarily Iran is a puny third world country but they are artful in the use of proxies and terrorist methods. Above all they excel in the art of influence by playing factions. But there is only so far a fine Florentine hand can take you in dealing with the mighty US, a belligerent nuclear armed Israel or the vast wealth of Saudi, another nation that's no slouch in covert war by proxy. It's for this reason Iran needs to be a nuclear power.

    It's unlikely that Qom would use the bomb other than in defense or as a tool of intimidation and coercion. That is not a reason to be complacent about it. It's the intimidation and coercion that easily spooked Israel really fears and Tehran is a perfect nuclear killing ground. The Saudis will feel the need for an equalizer and they really are nuts enough to use it. It would be better for everybody if Qom would stop short of actually testing a bomb.

    It may seem hypocritical for DC having taken a wrecking ball to the place to complain that Iran is meddling in Iraq. It also is true that they are. They were at it long before we arrived there. There's plentiful evidence of Iranian collusion in killing our soldiers and targeted assassinations against former Baathists.

    I'd agree Pakistan is a much more troubling country. Their military has a history of genocidal actions. It has a significant stock of nuke tipped ballistic missiles. They did their best to covertly propagate the Islamic bomb and are hardly friendlier to Israel than Qom. We have direct evidence of the ISI colluding in transnational terrorist actions. The original Taliban was a Pakistani policy instrument. They still seem to be deeply entwined with some of them.
  4. If two countries can't sit down and talk about broads then what can men talk about?