Turkish Soldiers in Lebanon ?

#1
I have more question than opinions.
Will this change the dynamic of the region ?
Will this affect Turkeys membership in the EU ?
Turkey
Population:
70,413,958 (July 2006 est.)
GDP (purchasing power parity):
$572 billion (2005 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
$332.5 billion (2005 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
5.6% (2005 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):
$8,200 (2005 est.)

Iran
Population:
68,688,433 (July 2006 est.)
GDP (purchasing power parity):
$561.6 billion (2005 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
$181.2 billion (2005 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
6.1% (2005 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):
$8,300 (2005 est.)
 
#2
Clean over the top for me this time of morning.
What EU membership ?
UK will be a full member before Turkey for King George cannot last forever and his running dog is on his last lap.
john
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
On ROPs
#3
Hmm, I thought that 'King George' wasn't to ascend till his Mater, long may she reign, ascends, God Willing.
 
#4
George is gone in 2 years and 4? months time.
Blur should go with him or just before.
I have said for sometime that The Yanks promised to get Turkey into Europe as a reward for their help against Sadam and the belief I have that the Kurds where promised their own state for assistance when King George had so few allies.
john
 
#5
I have more question than opinions.
Will this change the dynamic of the region ?
Will this affect Turkeys membership in the EU ?
Turkey
Population:
70,413,958 (July 2006 est.)
GDP (purchasing power parity):
$572 billion (2005 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
$332.5 billion (2005 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
5.6% (2005 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):
$8,200 (2005 est.)

Iran
Population:
68,688,433 (July 2006 est.)
GDP (purchasing power parity):
$561.6 billion (2005 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
$181.2 billion (2005 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
6.1% (2005 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):
$8,300 (2005 est.)


I take the previous comments to mean
1 Turkey will never get in the EU regardless of what happens.
2 Turkey having soldiers in Lebanon will have no effect on the middle Eastern situation.

.Turkey will have soldiers on two borders of Syria's which may make Syria disinclined to challenge Turkish soldiers. Also Hezbollah may not be able to challenge the Turkish military with Turkey sharing a border with Iran.
If as you say Turkey will have no chance to gain access to EU subsidies than might it turn its attention towards the ME ?

This of course assumes that the ceasefire takes place
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=50168
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
On ROPs
#6
They used to say in the old days of print media that news was old before the ink had dried. That article is two weeks old, and its the 21st century. Now I take your point about Turkey is still pretty relevant, but still....
 
#7
Saturday, August 12, 2006 · Last updated 12:45 p.m. PT

France, Italy, Turkey offer U.N. troops

By ANGELA DOLAND
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
PARIS -- France and Italy, along with predominantly Muslim Turkey and Malaysia, signaled willingness Saturday to send troops for a beefed-up U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, but consultations are still needed to hammer out the force's makeup and mandate.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1103AP_Mideast_Fighting_UN_Force.html
 

Nehustan

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#8
My wife worked at AP, so I understand the organisation a little (i.e Al Hura), I was hoping for another Turkish source.
 
#9
Neo Con

A large number of EU states oppose Turkeys membership, Austria being the one who will say it in public, the reasons are historical, religious and enconomic. Although I like Turkey, think Attaturk was one of few the real political geniuses of the 20th Century and am more than happy to have Turkey in NATO I agree with the naysayers. Turkey in Lebanon is a good move - Turks in general regard the Arab world (their former slaves) as a embarrasment, they actively despise them. The rivalry between Iran and Turkey geographically at least goes back some 3000 years.
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
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#10
armchair_jihad said:
Neo Con

A large number of EU states oppose Turkeys membership, Austria being the one who will say it in public, the reasons are historical, religious and enconomic. Although I like Turkey, think Attaturk was one of few the real political geniuses of the 20th Century and am more than happy to have Turkey in NATO I agree with the naysayers. Turkey in Lebanon is a good move - Turks in general regard the Arab world (their former slaves) as a embarrasment, they actively despise them. The rivalry between Iran and Turkey geographically at least goes back some 3000 years.
Trojans and Persians :twisted:
 
#11
Nehustan said:
armchair_jihad said:
Neo Con

A large number of EU states oppose Turkeys membership, Austria being the one who will say it in public, the reasons are historical, religious and enconomic. Although I like Turkey, think Attaturk was one of few the real political geniuses of the 20th Century and am more than happy to have Turkey in NATO I agree with the naysayers. Turkey in Lebanon is a good move - Turks in general regard the Arab world (their former slaves) as a embarrasment, they actively despise them. The rivalry between Iran and Turkey geographically at least goes back some 3000 years.
Trojans and Persians twisted
Beyond that even, however I have just woken up and am 5700 miles from my reference books so you'll just have to trust me. But I do know some Turks and they would rather deepthroat Satan than team up with most of the Arab world, Turkey also has a long standing and wide ranging alliance with Israel.

Attaturk now there was a man, the middle east needs a couple more like him.
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
On ROPs
#12
I'm in no mood for arguing either mate, I've been up all night 8O However are you proposing, a la Ataturk, the Arabs adopt the Roman Alphabet ;)
 
#13
jonwilly said:
George is gone in 2 years and 4? months time.
Blur should go with him or just before.
I have said for sometime that The Yanks promised to get Turkey into Europe as a reward for their help against Sadam and the belief I have that the Kurds where promised their own state for assistance when King George had so few allies.
john
Well then turks wont be joining EU for awhile then sense they didnt actualy help US with Iraq. In truth though turkey gained suport from US in joining all european orginazations during the Korean war not Iraq war. Sense US really has no vote in EU membership process backing turkey for membership is a easy throw away postion that gains US political points with turkey but has no effect on outcome.

US offerd Turkey 25 billion in loans to use turkey in ground invasion of Iraq and were turned down stranding a entire armored division on boats in med that were not able to reach iraq before fall of bagdad.

Now what did turkey gain to make them walk away from 25 billion $? Maybe promise by germany and france on EU membership? Think about it for awhile why was EU able to brush off turkey for 30 plus years with so little effort but then suddenly there membership became enevitable? Do you really think Chirac and Gerhard just up and decided that because the turks were so helpfull to US in iraq that they now needed to finaly really really push turkish EU membership.

The real problem for both EU and turkey here is the fact that french and germans can not actualy deliver on there secret deal.

As for kurds being promised independence its very doubtfull if it had been done time for it to happen would have been in 2003 not wait a few years while Iraq rebuilt its army to point where it can fight the move.
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
On ROPs
#14
Now there's a byzantine argument ;) Personally I find that the fact that it seemed to recently be Austria that was the most vocal opponent of closer integration between the EU and Turkey ironic given what I percieve to be Franz Ferdinand's penchant.
 
#15
Neo Con

A large number of EU states oppose Turkeys membership, Austria being the one who will say it in public, the reasons are historical, religious and enconomic. Although I like Turkey, think Attaturk was one of few the real political geniuses of the 20th Century and am more than happy to have Turkey in NATO I agree with the naysayers. Turkey in Lebanon is a good move - Turks in general regard the Arab world (their former slaves) as a embarrasment, they actively despise them. The rivalry between Iran and Turkey geographically at least goes back some 3000 years.
The promise by Europe of Turkey entering the EU has about run its course. Europe does not want it. The official policy of the US is that Turkey should be a member of the EU ,but the US does not have much influence on that issue in either Turkey or the EU. I do not know how much the Turks want to be in the EU, but that number has to be declining in the face of the strong opposition that EU member states have.

I have no Idea how this will play out, but it certainly adds a new wrinkle to a other wise complicated situation.


Turkey has to have interests in the stans, some of which have ethically related population ,not to mention the oil ,pipelines and shipping which help generate that 5.6 growth in GDP Turkey is experiencing.(Better than Europe's)

By sending peacekeepers to Lebanon and engaging in Arab lands, something which Turkey has not done aggressively since the end of WWI , this seems to possibly show a turning away from a EU centered policy to a increasingly independent Turkish foreign policy that does not look to Europe or the US. I might also add that it should not be in the Turkish Interest to see Iran get Nuclear weapons.
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
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#16
NEO_CON said:
By sending peacekeepers to Lebanon and engaging in Arab lands, something which Turkey has not done aggressively since the end of WWI , this seems to possibly show a turning away from a EU centered policy to a increasingly independent Turkish foreign policy that does not look to Europe or the US. I might also add that it should not be in the Turkish Interest to see Iran get Nuclear weapons.
Most surely, when one follows the white rabbit, truth is stranger than fiction...
 
#17
Siddar said:
jonwilly said:
George is gone in 2 years and 4? months time.
Blur should go with him or just before.
I have said for sometime that The Yanks promised to get Turkey into Europe as a reward for their help against Sadam and the belief I have that the Kurds where promised their own state for assistance when King George had so few allies.
john
Well then turks wont be joining EU for awhile then sense they didnt actualy help US with Iraq. In truth though turkey gained suport from US in joining all european orginazations during the Korean war not Iraq war. Sense US really has no vote in EU membership process backing turkey for membership is a easy throw away postion that gains US political points with turkey but has no effect on outcome.

US offerd Turkey 25 billion in loans to use turkey in ground invasion of Iraq and were turned down stranding a entire armored division on boats in med that were not able to reach iraq before fall of bagdad.

Now what did turkey gain to make them walk away from 25 billion $? Maybe promise by germany and france on EU membership? Think about it for awhile why was EU able to brush off turkey for 30 plus years with so little effort but then suddenly there membership became enevitable? Do you really think Chirac and Gerhard just up and decided that because the turks were so helpfull to US in iraq that they now needed to finaly really really push turkish EU membership.

The real problem for both EU and turkey here is the fact that french and germans can not actualy deliver on there secret deal.

As for kurds being promised independence its very doubtfull if it had been done time for it to happen would have been in 2003 not wait a few years while Iraq rebuilt its army to point where it can fight the move.
The Kurds are immaterial really to the ME peace process. Whilst most of the world is concerned with a Sunni insurgency in Iraq and Al Qaida, it is the Shia brand of Islamic extremism that poses the long term threat. So long as Iraq remains a Sunni / Shia alliance, preventing the Shia crescent from stretching all the way across the ME and inluding nuclear powers then a starting point exists for moving forward.

This is why it is vital for Israel to beat Hezbollah who at present are uniting the Shia world and whilst being beaten, are making a good fist of things and seriously delaying the Israeli advance. In the Arab mind, this is a success and goes a long way to allay the fears that the Arab world has had since the 6 day war that Israel is virtually unbeatable. Israel has to win to for any stability to remain in the region. If Israel start to lose, other Arab/Shia nations will start to think about trying to pick them off.

The Kurds, I believe, have been promised or led to believe that some sort of independant state is the end game. If not, then why is the weaker of the two Kurdish leaders, Talabani, the current Iraqi President? Why not Barzani, the stronger of the two, who has remained in Irbil to head up the KRG? If not, then why were the governates with a kurdish poulation allowed to conduct a referendum at the same time as the Iraqi elections, on the subject of Kurdish independence which returned a vote of 97.9% in favour?

The Iraqi Presidency is Talabani's swan song, allowing time for Barzani to consollidate in the north. There will be no move towards independence until the right to administer Kirkuk has been resolved in 2007. That is when we will see the KRGs full hand, when Kirkuk is officially Kurdish. As, indeed, it will be. It is not inconceivable that an agreement has been reached to cede Mardin and Dyarbakir to a Kurdish State in exchange for Euro accession. This wouldn't affect any of the Turkish mineral rights, the area is very poor. It would also mean that Turkey no longer has to worry about Iran as an immediate neighbour. For European purposes, Turkey could join the EU and Kurdistan would be the secular buffer state against Islam.

Of course, if the Turkish military becomes more conservative as some fear might happen, then it could all go for a ball of chalk.
 
#19
Most surely, when one follows the white rabbit, truth is stranger than fiction...
While I don't know about white rabbits and don't intend to follow it ,unless of course to shoot and eat it(Rabbit is mighty tasty), I will admit that I am speculating as to the direction Turkeys foreign policy will take.
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
On ROPs
#20
Ahh, bit of an obtuse reference. Its from Lewis Carroll, and I used it as a title for a sourcefile that dealt with the region.
 

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