Turkish MPs back strikes against PKK in Iraq

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by here_be_mike, Oct 17, 2007.

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  1. BBC article

    Oh bollocks. So could the worst case scenario put out of iran (in a more visible way) poking its nose in happen now? Theres been rumblings of this for some time, but is it more directly linked to the US vote to recognise the Armenian genocide rather than just wanting to get rid of the PKK?
  2. Naw, it was the street protests that done it. Weird act of democracy to go in and sort it out.

    Armenia will be pishing themselves...
  3. It's been building imho, the Armenian resolution helped solidify opinion - The death of the 13 soldiers was on of the heaviest losses that the Turks have faced since the hey day of fighting. The Turks in conjunction the Iranians have also been launching regular bombardments against the PKK. I guess the saving grace is that the parliament has approved incursions and I for one suspect that if the the troops do cross the border - the Americans and indeed the Kurdish Army will stragetically absent themselves.
  4. The Turks blackmail our American friends over proposed Armenian genocide bill.

    How it would end? Likely the bill would not be passed.
  5. Turkey and Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, have had a gentlemans agreement over their respective Kurdish problems for quite a while now. They signed a border agreement back in 2000 or so IIRC that was to do with increasing security along the border, joint co-operation and intelligence sharing.
  6. Since when do the Kurds have an Army,or do you mean the Iraqi Army that will have to move North should Turkey cross the border?

    To a lot of Kurds( ca 40 million who have no country to call their own) the PPK is THEIR army.The Turks are crapping themselves because the ´Kurdish´area covers their recently built Attaturk dam, which nearly bankrupted the country due to its high cost and they don´t want to share it.

    Looks like the next big war is going to be about water and not oil;Turkey could quite easily cut off water to Israel and other neighbouring countries as they´ve blocked the Euphrates river with their giant dam!
  7. I think he was refering to the Peshmerga, the general term used for armed Kurdish fighters whatever their faction or allegiance.
  8. Apart from the ones making up the bulk of the effective units in the Iraqi Army.
  9. Oops yeah, sorry should have made that distinction, I wasn't really thinking about them. There are a number of battalions of Peshmerga who seem to have transfered wholesale over to the new Iraqi Army so they don't really come under that category.
  10. The Iraqi Army is not allowed to set foot on Kurdish territory. There is only the Peshmerga in or out of IA uniform.

    At least if Kurdophile Peter W. Galbraith is to be believed:
    The Peshmerga is essentially a group of disparate tribal militias riven by fierce inter-clan rivalries. Kurdish politics is not this simple but some Pesh are loyal to Jalal Talabani others to the Machiavellian Massoud Barzani.

    Kurds say their only friends are the mountains and that this statement unfortunately often extends to most other Kurds. There are sectarian and language divides as well as tribal. They have at times fought savagely against each other. Indeed this is the historic reason many Kurds blame for their failure to achieve nationhood.

    In their recent civil war Barzani called on Saddam to aid him in 95, Talabani on Qom, it lasted 3 years. Both men have deep ties with Iran. It's Barzani who is President of the Kurdistan Regional Government and is sheltering the relatively puny PKK. If he orders his men to kill invading Turks (or anybody) they will.

    I doubt a slippery cove like Barzani would kick something off. The Turkish Army are not a delicate war-lite force but an incursion is likely to be to some extent negotiated and carried out by their more disciplined units rather than a armored golden horde killing all before it. However any sort of incident that necessitates an honor killing could spark things off and the PKK must still have kinship ties to Pesh units

    Faced with the Turkish Army the Peshmerga would probably melt away into the mountains. They are very able fighters officered by men who fought Saddam and they won't concentrate to have a Syrian Solution applied to them. If the Turks stay for long they'll give them a great deal of gyp.

    It would be a different matter if the Turkish officer corps has a Cyprus moment and decides Kirkuk is low hanging fruit. It recently has been where the Pesh have been most concentrated and will probably remain so. Both Barzani and Talabani would accept a lot of casualties before letting the Kirkuk field slip their grasp. Unlikely provided the Kurds resist the temptation to slaughter the Turkoman population.

    The Turks are actually the largest single investor in Kurdistan. If the Kurds are smart they may well tolerate a rich, fairly autonomous Kurdish region next to them provided it does not destabilize Turkey by stirring up the fifth of Turks of Kurdish identity.

    With Basra port in Persian hands. Kurdish oil would likely be exported out via Turkey. There's a lot of the Turkish elite anticipating a boondoggle. Turkey is not the fascistic Army dominated country of a decade ago. Dreams of patriotic glory are less prevalent than the grubby commercial urge.

    That point about water above is correct. It was one of the few decent rationals for DC invading Iraq floated within the Pentagon: water shortages would trigger a regional wars soon anyway and extensive basing was needed to manage them. Of course we'd not give a monkey's about that if it wasn't for the Ghawar field.
  11. Typical bloody Highlander clans :loL:

    Best to keep them on all our sides, eh lads? ;)

    PKK is to the Kurds as the 'commie nepalese' are to the Ghurkas... i.e. a bad idea gone to bad.... It won't take hold, but they're your classical "labour" type boyos when faced with industrialisation.

    And who needs Water when ya can have Whisky? :D
  12. Indirectly this will effect us all in a small way. Expect the Oil price to come under pressure and possibly creep up again tomorrow to another all time high :(

    Military action in the short term is unlikely. The PKK will be reading the news and will have scarpered for now anyway
  13. This is a wee bit under-discussed....

    ...what happens if Turkey occupies and the Iraqi government oppose it?
    ...what happens if Turkey occupies, the Iraqi government does not oppose it and the locals oppose it?
    ...what happens if Turkey invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, expecting some payback for the US's use of Incirlik over all those years?
    ...what happens if Turkey invokes Article 5, is rebuffed, and decides to be awkward?

    This could lead to the fragmentation of Iraq (inevitable in my opinion), difficulties in air and overland supply to Iraq, the breakup of NATO and the alienation of a pivotal strategic nation.
  14. WAPO Report: 9 Turkish Soldiers Killed
    I think the PKK is eager for a ruck or at least those bits of it a long way from Iraqi Kurdistan.