Turkey - a real turkey?

MissingOTC

War Hero
Funny, I seem to remember it was Trump who did the most damage to NATO, now it seems that has been forgotten and we are back to blaming Turkey for NATO's ills. Remember the US pretty much pissing all over articles 1 and 2 but no one on here seemed bothered. Funny....
 
Funny, I seem to remember it was Trump who did the most damage to NATO, now it seems that has been forgotten and we are back to blaming Turkey for NATO's ills. Remember the US pretty much pissing all over articles 1 and 2 but no one on here seemed bothered. Funny....
Well only turkey bought S300-400-500 system, no other NATO user has them, it’s a Russian system, hence turkey getting told to do one, oh then there are the independent activities in northern Iraq, and Syria which make the Russians look like pussy cats.

IMHO Turkey is a rouge ally,
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
Well only turkey bought S300-400-500 system, no other NATO user has them, it’s a Russian system, hence turkey getting told to do one, oh then there are the independent activities in northern Iraq, and Syria which make the Russians look like pussy cats.

IMHO Turkey is a rouge ally,

Right, so in that case what about Greece and it's S-300 system? France was about to sell Russia battleships at one point.

You do not consider Trump's questioning of the very purpose of NATO rogue? Or do we will simply accept whatever the party line if on who is good and who is bad depending on mood of the day?

Turkey has the second largest land army in NATO, it spent 50 odd years sharing a land and maritime border with the USSR, hosting US bases and partaking in almost every NATO led mission.
At 1.86% of GDP it is amongst the top 10 in terms of defence expenditure within NATO as % of GDP and 7th largest in real terms. It shares hostile borders with Syria, Iran and Iraq.

Let us be very clear. If Turkey had chosen US equipment instead of Russian, and Rathyeon bagged another order we would not even be having this debate. Amazed how many people on this forum do not question the news they consume and happy to just be fed it, than repeat the BS as their "opinions".

And if you really think the US/UK did not conduct "independent activities" in Syria and Iraq with shady people than I would say you need to read up more. Turkey (lie any country) will back whatever faction is in it;'s interests, that does not make it any less of a valuable NATO ally.
 
'Roadmaps', generally to nowhere. The favoured NATO method for kicking cans down the road.

'Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said he told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday that Ankara’s purchase of Russian air defences was “a done deal”, adding that the NATO allies needed a roadmap to discuss their disagreements.

'Ankara and Washington have been at odds over issues including Syria policy, human rights and the S-400 air defence acquisition, over which the United States has sanctioned Turkey and removed it from its F-35 fighter jet programme. “On the S-400s, we reminded them once again why Turkey had to buy them, and repeated that Turkey had bought them and this is a done deal,” Cavusoglu told reporters in Brussels after their first face-to-face meeting since Blinken took office.

'Describing the talks as constructive, Cavusoglu said Ankara wanted to meet its future defence needs primarily from NATO allies, and agreed on the need to keep discussing differences with Washington. “We may discuss these and what future steps to take on strategic topics by establishing a bilateral working group,” he said. “We need to work on a roadmap.”

'The U.S. State Department said Blinken had “urged Turkey not to retain the Russian S-400 air defence system”. Washington has repeatedly rejected a working group to discuss the S-400s.

'Ankara has said it wants better ties with Washington under Biden, but the two countries’ leaders have yet to speak. Last week, Erdogan criticised Biden’s remarks about Russia’s Vladimir Putin, in which he called him a killer, as “unacceptable”.'


Turkey tells U.S. at NATO that Russian defence purchase is 'done deal'
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
US now have made CAATSA a massive issue, they have obviously beaten Turkey over the head with it and are now threatening India with it (for S-400 purchase), and they need India to counter China.

Eventually I feel both these countries will ignore US concerns, and that puts US policy in a very difficult place, either push two big allies (India and Turkey) in Russia's arms or drop the threat of sanctions and lose all credibility (and of course make it open season for everyone to place S-440 orders).

Something will have to give pretty soon, quite a bit of talk but no action....
 
Don't go challenging the Sultan's bigly ideas.

'Turkey on Monday detained 10 retired admirals after a letter signed by more than 100 of them warned against a possible threat to a treaty governing the use of Turkey’s key waterways, Agence France-Presse reported.

'Turkey’s approval last month of plans to develop a shipping canal in İstanbul comparable to the Panama or Suez canals has opened up debate about the 1936 Montreux Convention. In their letter, 104 retired admirals said it was “worrying” to open the Montreux treaty up to debate, calling it an agreement that “best protects Turkish interests”.

'The Ankara chief public prosecutor’s office said arrest warrants were issued for the 10 and ordered four other suspects to report to Ankara police within three days, opting not to detain them because of their age. They are accused of “using force and violence to get rid of the constitutional order,” NTV broadcaster reported. The prosecutor launched a probe on Sunday into the retired admirals on suspicion of an “agreement to commit a crime against the state’s security and constitutional order”.

'One of the 10 suspects detained was Cem Gürdeniz, described as the father of Turkey’s controversial new maritime doctrine known as “Blue Homeland”. The doctrine has grown in prominence, especially during tensions last year between Greece and Turkey over Ankara’s gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean. It argues Turkey has rights to substantial maritime borders including the water surrounding some Greek islands, much to Athens’ chagrin.

'Turkish officials have reacted angrily to the letter, claiming it appears to be a call for a coup. “Stating one’s thoughts is one thing, preparing a declaration evoking a coup is another,” parliament speaker Mustafa Şentop said on Sunday.'


 

MissingOTC

War Hero
He is tempting fate here and there could well be another attempted coup, or he is just so confident he has totally cleansed the military he feels he can do this. Obviously many of those Admirals will be well known to, or the mentors of currently serving officers. ....
 
Meanwhile, Erdoğan continues to blunder into another PR and economic disaster. He wants to build a canal into the Black sea to the west of İstanbul to relieve the pressure on the İstanbul Strait (the Bosporus):


The İstanbul Canal project is not only eye-wateringly expensive - especially for a country on its knees - there are grave concerns about the ecological damage that could result in having two outflows from the Kara Deniz, as the locals call it. However, what is more concerning is that the canal with circumvent the extant Montreux Convention (that has its origins back in the Crimea War).


So what? This is from a FCDO Guide about the 'Montreux Convention':

The Treaty of Paris 1856 formally ended the Crimean War, and inter alia, declared the Black Sea as neutral, seriously weakening an already-beaten Russia. The Treaty of London 1871 allowed the Russians to re-arm in the Black Sea (ships and fortifications) but also gave Constantinople [sic] the authority to close the Straits in time of war. The 1923 Treaty of Sevres placed the Turkish Straits under Allied control, but the principals of the 1871 Treaty of London were observed.

In 1936, the Allies and Turkey renegotiated control of the Turkish Straits, resulting in the extant ‘Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits’. This gave Turkey full control over the straits but recognised the right of freedom of passage of merchant vessels and ‘innocent passage’ of warships, subject to some limitations. Non-Black Sea state (‘Riparian State’) warships are limited by type, weaponry and collective tonnages. As a classic balance of power agreement, Turkey regards the Convention as an essential element of Black Sea security and stability. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has impartially implemented by Turkey for more than eight decades. Non-Riparian State submarines and aircraft carriers are excluded from transiting further north than İstanbul; stays are limited to a maximum of 21 days and all States Party to the convention must give 14 days’ notice of intention on entering the Black Sea, and the Ministry dutifully – and very formally – advises the Embassies in Ankara.

The Admirals who were arrested are worried about the changing status of the Black Sea, which could see the Russian Black Sea Fleet be externally strengthened and the sea- which has remained largely peaceful to the benefit of most Riparian States - becoming another area of heightened tension.
 
He is tempting fate here and there could well be another attempted coup, or he is just so confident he has totally cleansed the military he feels he can do this. Obviously many of those Admirals will be well known to, or the mentors of currently serving officers. ....
I covered some aspects of the July 2016 coup attempt from my desk in London; the military have lost many of the levers of power they once had. The powerful and very professional Gendarmerie - once part of the General Staff - is now part of the Interior Ministry (as is the Coast Guard). I am a couple of years out of date but at last count 35,000 military personnel were sacked and arrested in the months after the putsch, and the arrests continue. The Gűlenists who had moved into the J1 world to promote and assign fellow Islamists have been purged; the secular Kemalist colonels are long gone.

ETA: there has also been massive investment in the National Intelligence Agency, the MİT, who remained loyal in 2016, and have extensive internal surveillance capabilities.
 
Last edited:
A lot of the Turkish civilians and military working in NATO etc overnight suddenly had their security clearances cancelled by Turkey during the attempted coup. In a job one day, banned from coming on-base the next. And then they had to look forward to flying back to Turkey to see what reception awaited them and the reason they attracted the attention of those that were purging the military of what decent personnel they had.
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
I must admit, I cannot think of a single country that has done more to harm it's own military outside of Mao and Stalin. Certainly from a personnel point of view. Having said that, it does seem that many of their domestic products seem to be coming good (albeit reliant on foreign inputs)
 
I just wonder what the real reason for this visit of today is all about?
No doubt it is going to involve taxpayers money going in one direction only.............

Three significant sentence/paragraphs . . .

Setting of terms

The Turks say they want to move forward from "positive" talks held in a series of calls to "concrete action" -- especially on migration.

But EU officials warn that any improvement depends on how Erdogan -- who was leader when Turkey formally opened talks to join the bloc in 2005 -- acts and whether he remains a constructive partner.

The possible thaw coincides with a toughening on Turkey from the White House, where the election of President Joe Biden saw Erdogan lose a personal friend in Donald Trump.
 
Three significant sentence/paragraphs . . .

Setting of terms

The Turks say they want to move forward from "positive" talks held in a series of calls to "concrete action" -- especially on migration.

But EU officials warn that any improvement depends on how Erdogan -- who was leader when Turkey formally opened talks to join the bloc in 2005 -- acts and whether he remains a constructive partner.

The possible thaw coincides with a toughening on Turkey from the White House, where the election of President Joe Biden saw Erdogan lose a personal friend in Donald Trump.
To be fair on Turkey, they are home to c 4 million registered refugees since c 2011, and probably another million or so undocumented illegals - that would be roughly equivalent to over 4 million new arrivals via illegal border crossings in Britain in the last 10 years, ie 1100 a day, every day. Initially they were very welcoming to the Syrians (given Erdogan's dislike of Bashir al Assad) but now it is a rag tag bunch of chancers from across the Global South - as far East as the Philippines.
 
Meanwhile, Erdoğan continues to blunder into another PR and economic disaster. He wants to build a canal into the Black sea to the west of İstanbul to relieve the pressure on the İstanbul Strait (the Bosporus):


The İstanbul Canal project is not only eye-wateringly expensive - especially for a country on its knees - there are grave concerns about the ecological damage that could result in having two outflows from the Kara Deniz, as the locals call it. However, what is more concerning is that the canal with circumvent the extant Montreux Convention (that has its origins back in the Crimea War).


So what? This is from a FCDO Guide about the 'Montreux Convention':



The Admirals who were arrested are worried about the changing status of the Black Sea, which could see the Russian Black Sea Fleet be externally strengthened and the sea- which has remained largely peaceful to the benefit of most Riparian States - becoming another area of heightened tension.
As the article says, it's in Turkey's interest to have the Montreux Convention apply to the canal as well.

The concern seems to be that the Montreux Convention may collapse if Turkey starts hiking transit fees for merchant ships through the Bosporus in order to make the canal economically viable. If they raise them too high, then some countries might refuse to honour the Montreux Convention for reasons of commercial profit.

If this happens, it won't be Turkey or Russia who would initiate withdrawing from it, as they are currently the main beneficiaries of the treaty.
 

RBMK

LE
Book Reviewer
Erdogan has now upset the fragrant Ursula von der Leyen over women's rights:


Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission’s first female president, was “surprised” after being left without a chair during a meeting of the EU’s two presidents and Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and has demanded such a snub is never repeated.

The German head of the commission was left visibly irritated at the start of the talks in Ankara with her two male counterparts, Erdoğan and Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister who is president of the European council.

“Ehm,” she muttered, with a small gesticulation directed at the occupied seats, as Michel and Erdoğan settled themselves at the head of the gilded room in the presidential complex at the start of the talks.


To be fair, I'd like to get Ursula on a sofa, albeit without the audience....

1617812440745.png

"Oh, yes please RBMK"
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
Erdogan has now upset the fragrant Ursula von der Leyen over women's rights:


Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission’s first female president, was “surprised” after being left without a chair during a meeting of the EU’s two presidents and Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and has demanded such a snub is never repeated.

The German head of the commission was left visibly irritated at the start of the talks in Ankara with her two male counterparts, Erdoğan and Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister who is president of the European council.

“Ehm,” she muttered, with a small gesticulation directed at the occupied seats, as Michel and Erdoğan settled themselves at the head of the gilded room in the presidential complex at the start of the talks.


To be fair, I'd like to get Ursula on a sofa, albeit without the audience....

View attachment 563413
"Oh, yes please RBMK"

Yeah, agreed, total GILF territory that.
 
Erdogan has now upset the fragrant Ursula von der Leyen over women's rights:


Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission’s first female president, was “surprised” after being left without a chair during a meeting of the EU’s two presidents and Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and has demanded such a snub is never repeated.

The German head of the commission was left visibly irritated at the start of the talks in Ankara with her two male counterparts, Erdoğan and Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister who is president of the European council.

“Ehm,” she muttered, with a small gesticulation directed at the occupied seats, as Michel and Erdoğan settled themselves at the head of the gilded room in the presidential complex at the start of the talks.


To be fair, I'd like to get Ursula on a sofa, albeit without the audience....

View attachment 563413
"Oh, yes please RBMK"

And now the memes...

IMG-20210408-WA0002.jpg
 
That went well!

'A press conference that began with warm words between the top diplomats of Greece and Turkey on Thursday quickly transformed into an exchange of accusations.

'Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and his Greek opposite number Nikos Dendias met in Ankara to in an effort to smooth over months of tensions between the two NATO allies. The two were expected to iron out issues over maritime boundaries that brought the two countries to the brink of military confrontation last year.

'The meeting began cordially, but the two men were soon openly quarreling after Dendias said violations of Greek sovereignty would be met by sanctions. He said that Turkish warplanes had violated Greek airspace several times and warned Turkey not to spread "fake news." Cavusoglu rejected his comments as "unacceptable" and accused him of exploiting the meeting for domestic purposes. "You come out here, and try to accuse Turkey, to give a message to your country. It is not possible for me to accept this," Cavusoglu said in response to the remarks.'


 
That went well!

'A press conference that began with warm words between the top diplomats of Greece and Turkey on Thursday quickly transformed into an exchange of accusations.

'Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and his Greek opposite number Nikos Dendias met in Ankara to in an effort to smooth over months of tensions between the two NATO allies. The two were expected to iron out issues over maritime boundaries that brought the two countries to the brink of military confrontation last year.

'The meeting began cordially, but the two men were soon openly quarreling after Dendias said violations of Greek sovereignty would be met by sanctions. He said that Turkish warplanes had violated Greek airspace several times and warned Turkey not to spread "fake news." Cavusoglu rejected his comments as "unacceptable" and accused him of exploiting the meeting for domestic purposes. "You come out here, and try to accuse Turkey, to give a message to your country. It is not possible for me to accept this," Cavusoglu said in response to the remarks.'


As I've said before, and having been involved with these issues in Whitehall, they're intractable. Greece regards Flight Information Regions as sovereign airspace; Turkey doesn't recognise this and flies in the disputed airspace around the islands in The Aegean - which are almost all Greek (some less than 1000 m for Anatolia). Turkey will not ratify UNCLOS III - if they did neither ports of Ìzmir nor Istanbul could be reached without going through Greek TTW.
 
Top