Turkey - a real turkey?

#41
I wonder if a default on some loans from European banks might be hinted at. That would cause a few problems as a lot of the loans recently (in the last couple of decades) used to fund Turkeys economic expansion resulted in tens of billions of Euros exposure for European banks. That saying about owing the bank ten thousand is a problem for the lendee, while owing the bank ten billion is a problem for the lender.
I posted previously that Spanish banks are especially exposed, with French banks the next so, although quite a ways behind the Spanish in that regards.
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/turkey-a-real-turkey.285185/post-8737836

Spain, France, U.K., U.S., Germany, Italy, Japan were listed as being the most exposed, totalling $205.7 billion. Of that, Spain holds 41%, France holds 18%, and the rest hold between 7% and 9% each.

It would appear that Spain and France have the most to worry about, although of course individual banks anywhere could have a large exposure of their own. If Turkey default on their loans, bank bail outs, especially in Spain are not out of the question. There have been numerous press reports in reputable media for some months now about investor concern over EU bank exposure to Turkey. Here's an example.
Euro zone banks hammered for Turkish exposure
Investors dumped euro zone bank shares on Friday on concerns about their exposure to Turkey, as the lira fell to yet another record low with a defiant government showing few signs it is ready to take decisive steps to stabilise the currency.
The same news report said the European Central Bank is very concerned over the exposure of the following banks: BBVA (Spain), UniCredit (Italy), and BNP Paribas (France).
The euro zone bank sell-off was exacerbated by a report in the Financial Times that the European Central Bank is increasingly concerned about some lenders, particularly BBVA (BBVA.MC) of Spain, UniCredit (CRDI.MI) of Italy and BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) of France, as they have some of the largest operations in Turkey among euro zone banks.
 
#43
#45
Thanks, I was looking for this thread, have you also seen that some in Turkey now suspect the USAF of involvement in the attempted coup?

Turkish Lawyers Demand Raid On Incirlik Air Base And Arrest Of U.S. Military Personnel

This is insane!
No. Not seen that.

But, I did get the impression from our TV news reporting last night (Monday), that the impact of the tariffs/fall in value of the Lira, was now causing some widespread dis-satisfaction among the business/professional/self-employed classes in Turkey.

Whether the cumulative effect may cause unrest - similar to the Ukraine - is open to speculation ;) .
 
#46
Posted/copied across from the F-35 thread, on belhalf of @Resasi . . . ;) .

Erdogan is getting a taste of reality and of his relative power...or not, in the world, and not before time. He has also met a President who is as arrogant and blockheaded as himself... just happens to run a bigger outfit, tends to take offence just as easily, and carries a bigger stick. The Lira has now lost 20 per cent of its value against the dollar and fallen more than 40 per cent this year amid tension over Mr Erdogan’s control over the economy and deteriorating relations with the US.

Turkey’s Official Gazette declared on Wednesday morning that the government has raised tariffs on US imports, including passenger cars, tobacco and alcohol. The decree, signed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has raised tariffs on alcoholic beverages by 140 percent, on tobacco by 60 percent, and on passenger cars by 120 percent. It also increased on other US goods, including cosmetics, rice and coal.

The present game of tit for tat with a bigger and stronger opponent will be a painful process and foreign investors will tend to be very wary of a gaping current account deficit of seven percent of GDP and private Turkish companies with foreign currency debt that needs to be repaid in US dollars when the lira has dropped 40 percent year-to-date.

There are many in the US who firmly oppose the F-35 going to Turkey and consider it a security threat to a major new weapon system. Turkey may well end up without it, and can then concentrate on their home made project.

They have been a lukewarm NATO partner for a while, and the purge of pro-Western officers throughout the Turkish armed forces will not have made that situation any better. I’d tend to wager that they don’t, even though the US DOD would rather not cut Turkey off.
DOD opposes removing Turkey from F-35 programme, citing supply chain disruption

It cannot however have escaped LM’s attention that this has been a Joker in the pack for a while now, certainly for nearly two years, and they have mentioned it quietly before now.

Meanwhile closer to home, QE is getting ready to head stateside and start working with some F-35’s.
HMS Queen Elizabeth to sail to the United States for F-35 trials
 
#47
Turkey will cut ties with the west, it won't drift northward towards Russia, it will move south and east towards its Islamic brethren. Turkey was the leader of the Islamic world for centuries, it wants that role back again. Refer to Erdogans call for an army of Islam to destroy Israel in 10 days. The one thing that papers over the cracks is middle eastern Islam and tends to be a unifying force is enmity with Israel.
 
#49
Turkey/Erdogan was give a sweet deal by the EU after Merkle’s total brain fart nonsense over the immigrant crisis. The money they were given, along with the promise of visa free entry and then EU membership, was a desperate attempt at sorting the complete free for all invasion of Europe by any migrant economic or displaced who wanted to come.

In the cold hard light of day European countries, and only finally, Merkel herself, saw that what was happening was an unmitigated disaster, and they had cobbled up a deal that EU rules themselves could not allow and that Turkey’s human rights were not acceptable for EU membership. The deal has now fallen apart and Turkey has not had the pleasure of being able to give the West another nearly 80 million Moslems, and thank the Lord for that!!!

Meanwhile Erdogan has been culling any opposition,and consolidating absolute power in the Dictatorship he is creating in Turkey. He is moving away for the West and as @skeetstar has said, probably now wishes to lead the Moslem world...along with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and a few others who would all like to be seen as top dog.

He is right now pretty upset with both the EU and the US. He has chosen to ignore generally accepted world wide standards on human rights, butted heads with the US over the Kurds in Syria, the detained US Pastor, not repatriating Gulen, closing Incerlik, wanting to arrest US personell, the recent US tarrifs, and probably now the possible refusal of the F-35.

His currency has fallen, but he still seems to want a pissing match with the West. Russia will quite naturally be delighted and offer to be best buddies, which Erdogan may well decide to accept. Whether that will be to Turkey’s benefit remains to be seen.

Turkish businesses happily borrowed dollars and euros cheaply at the West's low interest rates, but in doing so accumulated debts that they now cannot pay back due to the collapse of the lira. Foreign investors are now pulling out of the country, disposing of any lira for more stable currencies causing the value of the lira to fall further.

Erdogan’s style of leadership seems very similar to Putin’s, and besides Russia will probably be quite happy to find a replacement partner for India’s pull-out from the PAK SU-57 5th gen fighter.
India Pulls out of Joint Stealth Fighter Project With Russia

A plane that was so good that they decided not to mass produce it.
Russia Will Not Mass-Produce 5th Generation Stealth Fighter Jet

As 'Best-Buds' they should get along just fine, a marriage made in heaven with Turkey able to get the Russian Missile system, and a fabulous 5th Gen stealth fighter that is the world’s best, probably on very favourable terms because right now the Turkish Lira is not worth much, but then pulling a NATO partner away worth a lot to Russia.

The fact that it was a piss-poor partner is not a worry for them at all, but they certainly will not be allowing 80 million Muslims free entry to Russia in a million years.

Erdogan is not backing down, and has received a large cash injection from some Muslim mates in Qatar, Merkle will probably help as well, worried that Turkey will let a flood of refugees head into Europe, and that more disenchanted Turks will want to join families of those already in Germany. Over 4 million and the largest Turkish community in Western Europe.

It’s a pissing match that isn’t doing anyone any good at all.
 
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#52
I like the juxtaposition of the “point finger” photos . . . :) .



Turkey lira crisis: Erdogan’s bid to boycott iPhone sales FAILS amid ongoing row with US

"TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s call for a boycott on US electronic goods including Apple iPhones has had little impact on their sales, as the trade war between Turkey and US intensifies after the White House threatened to impose further economic sanctions against Turkey".

PUBLISHED by: George Cook, EXPRESS, on Monday 20 August 2018.
Turkey lira crisis: Erdogan’s bid to boycott iPhone sales FAILS amid ongoing row with US
 
#53
Adverts for cheap holidays in Turkey on the tv this morning. Generally aimed at families with kids and emphasising beach and seaside holidays.

I guess they are looking for customers who don't appreciate the present situation or even know where Turkey is.
 
#54
I like the juxtaposition of the “point finger” photos . . . :) .



Turkey lira crisis: Erdogan’s bid to boycott iPhone sales FAILS amid ongoing row with US

"TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s call for a boycott on US electronic goods including Apple iPhones has had little impact on their sales, as the trade war between Turkey and US intensifies after the White House threatened to impose further economic sanctions against Turkey".

PUBLISHED by: George Cook, EXPRESS, on Monday 20 August 2018.
Turkey lira crisis: Erdogan’s bid to boycott iPhone sales FAILS amid ongoing row with US
Could there be anything worse for the youth vote than trying to ban iPhones, that should get the young Turks triggered
 
#55
Could there be anything worse for the youth vote than trying to ban iPhones, that should get the young Turks triggered
Worked in the UK....some idiot mentioned that student debt was going to be scrubbed and low and behold the stoodents and potentials, thinking overnight their debt of their part-time education was gone, voted for the idiot. The idiot it turned out hadnt really thought how this was going to be done and it was all a big fib!
 
#57
More reactions from Europe. Merkel hesitant about helping Turkey financially, and the EU now a bit more cognisant that the refugee aid deal was possibly a bit too generous and one sided.
Turkey lira crisis: Merkel RULES OUT financial aid package for Turkey

It seems financial common sense may be a bit more evident now a leading EU cash cow may be leaving the herd.

The loans to Greece however may never be repaid.
Can't find the LINK just now, but pretty certain, during the last couple of days, that there was a story that Greece HAS (just) cleared its debts??
 
#58
#59
Personally I am fine with letting Putin have Turkey. We took Ukraine from him, so it's only fair. Turkey isn't a true ally anyway. It's not a true Western country, it doesn't share our values or our worldview. That is becoming more and more evident by the day under Erdogan's rule.

I'm not scared of an angsty yet declining Russia and frankly Turkey is more trouble than it's worth. If they wanted to be a secular democracy then fine, but they don't so they don't fit with us. I understand geopolitics is a chess game but you also have to remember what you're playing for.

What Turkey stands for today is not something I want my country playing for.
I suspect that the NATO (well US really) presence in Turkey means some good earning for the locals to wherever they are located so it is a balancing act all round really. Perhaps it is just too early to tell what the results of this all will be.
 
#60
More reactions from Europe. Merkel hesitant about helping Turkey financially, and the EU now a bit more cognisant that the refugee aid deal was possibly a bit too generous and one sided.
Turkey lira crisis: Merkel RULES OUT financial aid package for Turkey

It seems financial common sense may be a bit more evident now a leading EU cash cow may be leaving the herd.

The loans to Greece however may never be repaid.
She turns off the aid tap and he turns on the refugee tap. It must be galling to Erdogan that Greece was useless and got the aid and yet Turkey who the EU and NATO carp on about being important to them both seems to get knocked back.

I guess we could see him drift to a Putin type relationship but then Syria is a bit of a sticking point.

It is all a bit of a tangled web isn't it?
 

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