Turkey - a real turkey?

I fear that of the options I previously gave, its the Muslim superhero...and Holy War.

Thank f*ck a fragment of common sense prevailed and the EU doors were not flung open for 80million Muslims. I voice this simply from the close personal experiences of over two decades of observing and living amongst the preachings, practices and behaviour of this particular belief system, in the cradle of that systems beginnings.

From birth rate and democratic practice alone Europe would have become Muslim very quickly.
 
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And they are pushing other boundaries that will cause yet more aggravation. Turkey recently insisted on its sovereign rights to drill over potential gas reserves near Cyprus in defiance of warnings from various NATO partners. Ankara insists that the drilling ship, the Fatih, and support vessels will begin operations in waters viewed by the EU as being within Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone. Turkey says it does not recognise the unilateral and illegitimate exclusive economic zone claimed by the Greek Cypriots,.

Despite international condemnation, the ships, escorted by a naval frigate, deployed 39 nautical miles off the divided islands western coast with the closest Turkish shore almost 80 nautical miles away. Ankara refuses to recognise Cyprus but the self-proclaimed Turkish republic in the North and argues the region is part of its own continental shelf, and it is complying with international law. A position that has put it at odds with neighbours.

The EUs policy chief, Federica Mogherini, had expressed grave concern over Turkeys intentions calling on Turkey to show restraint, respect the sovereign rights of Cyprus in its exclusive economic zone [EEZ] and refraining from any such action to which the European Union would respond appropriately and in solidarity with Cyprus. Donald Tusk, said Brussels was closely monitoring the situation stating that they are united behind Cyprus, the EUs most easterly member state. Exploration by Turkey will escalate tensions dramatically.

This began just after Turkey launched its largest-ever naval exercise Operation Seawolf, with more than 130 warships in the region. Much of the naval deployment in waters close to the island. Cyprus, lacks a navy, is not a member of NATO but has launched a diplomatic initiative to shore up solidarity among partners.

In the meantime, Erdogan can now begin mulling over the SU-35.
Turkey to consider procurement of Russian Su-35 jets - Sputnik | Ahval

Developed from the 1980’s SU-27 as an interim stop-gap till the SU-57, enters service, the Russian Air Force has about 98 and the Chinese just bought 24. So just over 100 flying. Possibly an improvement on the F-16, certainly not in the F-22/F-35 league...and the Turkish 5th gen looks a long way off.

The other thing is they aren’t STOVL so Turkeys ‘Lightning’ carrier now reverts to a helicopter carrier...with a ski jump...which they don’t need. No chance either for Ex-USMC Harriers, besides they won’t be retiring any time soon either. Oh dear. They will be much cheaper...but the F-35 industrial offset won’t be there.

Akbarman has a large Army, large Navy, slimmed down Air Force. Seem to remember another gent like that, Somebody Hussein. History now.
 
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Erdogan’s miscalculation over the F-35 has resulted in a resounding silence. And well may there be one. The fact that it’s big new modernisation of the Turkish Air Force, huge technological leap for the Turkish defence industry, not to mention an estimated over $10 billion in offset contracts, together with the gelding of the Turkish ‘Lightning Carrier’ will all have been pretty devastating blows to even the most optimistic of Supremo, omnipotent, 'know it all' heads of state.

But what to do now. The Turkish Air Force is in need of modernisation, they had ordered a 100 F-35’s and will need more down the line. Turkey has been counting on various defence projects to provide revenue, and to gain the technological knowhow they presently lack, but get round by co-production with US and Western countries.

The indigenous TF-X which was going to be Turkeys 5th Gen stable mate to the F-35 is in trouble. The collaboration for the engine with Roll Royce encountered problems over disputes about the intellectual rights of development. The fall back US engine, no longer available. On its own without the Western help it was counting on, although quite advanced, Turkey simply cannot finish TF-X. The fact is without considerable Western help TF-X would not even exist.

Buying Russian planes, or going into partnership on the SU-35/57 would be another notch higher toward a complete and final rupture with NATO. They would then get locked into Russian technology and practices, and aircraft that will not fit or be easy to operate with their existing fleet of US equipment.

The next step for Erdogan will be an even bigger decision than buying the S-400. No wonder there has been silence.
 
Erdogan’s miscalculation over the F-35 has resulted in a resounding silence. And well may there be one. The fact that it’s big new modernisation of the Turkish Air Force, huge technological leap for the Turkish defence industry, not to mention an estimated over $10 billion in offset contracts, together with the gelding of the Turkish ‘Lightning Carrier’ will all have been pretty devastating blows to even the most optimistic of Supremo, omnipotent, 'know it all' heads of state.

But what to do now. The Turkish Air Force is in need of modernisation, they had ordered a 100 F-35’s and will need more down the line. Turkey has been counting on various defence projects to provide revenue, and to gain the technological knowhow they presently lack, but get round by co-production with US and Western countries.

The indigenous TF-X which was going to be Turkeys 5th Gen stable mate to the F-35 is in trouble. The collaboration for the engine with Roll Royce encountered problems over disputes about the intellectual rights of development. The fall back US engine, no longer available. On its own without the Western help it was counting on, although quite advanced, Turkey simply cannot finish TF-X. The fact is without considerable Western help TF-X would not even exist.

Buying Russian planes, or going into partnership on the SU-35/57 would be another notch higher toward a complete and final rupture with NATO. They would then get locked into Russian technology and practices, and aircraft that will not fit or be easy to operate with their existing fleet of US equipment.

The next step for Erdogan will be an even bigger decision than buying the S-400. No wonder there has been silence.
TBH, Turkey is in a bit of "existential crisis," if you can call it that as to what it want's to do and which side it wants to be on...
 
It has also been an indication to Erdogan, Iran, and every other tin pot dictator, as well as to the rest of the world, the the USA is a country of law, procedures, and, checks and balances to the power of the President. Just one of those being 2017’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). This sanctions law was a major step by Congress to assert itself in the sanctions arena and constrain the Administration’s discretion to ease sanctions.

As man in charge of the most powerful nation on earth and with huge powers, Trump cannot just do as he pleases. No matter how friendly he may have been to Erdogan, no matter what reassurances Erdogan may have heard...or believes he heard from Trump, the stark fact of the matter was that the decision to bar Turkey from getting the F-35 was debated and decided in Congress, past into law, and Trump had few options but to pass pronouncement.

But why did Erdogan keep pushing, and goading the US in the way he did? What is true is that
opposition parties do appear to be gaining momentum, splits in Erdogan’s own party as former allies are looking to form their own entities that could split his constituency.
His economic policies while they appeared to transform the country did so at the cost of deep economic damage. Focus the attention of the people on the US as an unreliable ally and away from him? While that may have succeeded temporarily it may also have depended on his gamble that they would still get the F-35 as well as the S-400.

The focus of Turkey will now undoubtedly be entirely on him to now sort the mess out, and a big mess it is...that he created.
 
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A somewhat belated reaction to the F-35 ban has been in the last week Erdogan’s announcement that Turkey would reconsider buying Boeing airliners.

This perhaps not quite so surprising in light of the fact that 75 of these were to be the 737 Max’s, which is at the moment having major problems getting re-certified after the two fatal crashes.
 
It seems that despite the ban, Turkey is clinging on to the possibility that they may still be in with a chance of that being lifted.

It could explain why there haven’t been any more fireworks from Erdogan and things have been relatively quiet.
 
It seems that despite the ban, Turkey is clinging on to the possibility that they may still be in with a chance of that being lifted.

It could explain why there haven’t been any more fireworks from Erdogan and things have been relatively quiet.
"Laments?" Really? How many repeated warnings they have been? And for how long? How much more clear could they have been? F-k em.
 
Turkey continuing to push things in the E Med, potentially as a negotiating ploy for concessions in other areas?

'Two Turkish drill ships are continuing operations in the eastern Mediterranean and another ship will join them this month, Energy Minister Fatih Donmez said, as a dispute over natural resources there fuels tensions between Turkey and Cyprus.

'On Friday, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci will discuss a way out of an impasse in peace talks, which have been stalled for two years. Akinci said the Greek Cypriot side was making unilateral attempts to explore for natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean despite repeated Turkish Cypriot proposals to resolve the issue. “This doesn’t leave the Cypriot Turkish side and Turkey with any choice other than what we are doing right now,” Akinci told Reuters TV in an interview.

'Speaking to Turkish ambassadors in Ankara on Tuesday, President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey would continue to protect the rights of Turkish Cypriots. “We cannot remain indifferent to the attempts at theft and sabotage that are being carried out under the name of drilling,” he said.'


 
The Turkish paper Yeni Safak reported on Sat that Turkish defence procurement authorities had called on the country’s military to formally consider the purchase of Su-35 jets from Russia. If the Military approves official negotiations with Rosoboronexport would be initiated.

There have been other reports that part of this interest would be access to Russian engines for their own 5th gen project which is presently stalled for lack of a suitable power plant. Rostec has been quick to offer the AL-41F turbofans developed for the Su-57. The implication being that the Su-57s along with engine technology intended for the TF-X could be a package deal.

This would certainly be a huge further split with NATO and a huge step for Turkey to take. But Turkeys NATO status has drastically changed since the coup. The Turkish military have been removed from their decade-long role as guardians of the Kemalist state. Over 6,000 military personnel were removed. 87 Army generals out of 198 were dismissed. For top officers in the the Navy 31 of 54 and in the Air Force 32 out of 74. More than 300 pilots dismissed.

Of Turkey’s military in the NATO command structure, approximately 900 officers ordered home. Some 300 to 400 of whom were arrested upon arrival and called “Atlanticists”. Arrest warrants for the non returnees remained valid after the emergency came to an end in July 2018 and unlikely that these military officers will return to the Turkish armed forces. 500-600 applied for asylum in the Allied countries where they were based.‍

This ‘de-NATO-isation’ of the Turkish armed forces has resulted in a significant loss of knowledge about NATO’s purpose, structures and functioning. With loyalty to the APK government a key selection criterion for career the result is now a Turkish military that is more ideologically against NATO and supportive of cooperation with Russia. Certainly one that might seriously consider the SU-57.
 
The Turkish paper Yeni Safak reported on Sat that Turkish defence procurement authorities had called on the country’s military to formally consider the purchase of Su-35 jets from Russia. If the Military approves official negotiations with Rosoboronexport would be initiated.

There have been other reports that part of this interest would be access to Russian engines for their own 5th gen project which is presently stalled for lack of a suitable power plant. Rostec has been quick to offer the AL-41F turbofans developed for the Su-57. The implication being that the Su-57s along with engine technology intended for the TF-X could be a package deal.

This would certainly be a huge further split with NATO and a huge step for Turkey to take. But Turkeys NATO status has drastically changed since the coup. The Turkish military have been removed from their decade-long role as guardians of the Kemalist state. Over 6,000 military personnel were removed. 87 Army generals out of 198 were dismissed. For top officers in the the Navy 31 of 54 and in the Air Force 32 out of 74. More than 300 pilots dismissed.

Of Turkey’s military in the NATO command structure, approximately 900 officers ordered home. Some 300 to 400 of whom were arrested upon arrival and called “Atlanticists”. Arrest warrants for the non returnees remained valid after the emergency came to an end in July 2018 and unlikely that these military officers will return to the Turkish armed forces. 500-600 applied for asylum in the Allied countries where they were based.‍

This ‘de-NATO-isation’ of the Turkish armed forces has resulted in a significant loss of knowledge about NATO’s purpose, structures and functioning. With loyalty to the APK government a key selection criterion for career the result is now a Turkish military that is more ideologically against NATO and supportive of cooperation with Russia. Certainly one that might seriously consider the SU-57.
And yet, there has been a significant increase in the amount of imagery of Ataturk openly on display by individual staff officers and the Turkish National Military Representative's office at SHAPE.
 
Erdogan has never been a particularly popular leader with the Turkish military, hence the credibility of the alleged attempted Gulanist coup having been largely orchestrated by military officers, especially TuAF. As his economic policies have come up against global reality, Erdogan's popularity with the general population has been on the decline for some time however, he retains a significant power base among agrarian and less secular Turks.
 
He certainly went through the military root and branch, giving credibility to the coup being triggered early so he could just that.
 
I know one or two ex-mil Turks working in NATO who suddenly overnight had their Turkish supplied SC cancelled. The way it works is once NATO recieve that, then you are literally escorted to the gate there and then, do not pass go, bus fare home!
 
While no confirmed reports of further Turkish moves over the offer of the SU-57, a report on the SU-57 by the Russian Air Force (VVS) commander Lt Gen Sergey Dronov on the Ministry of Defence’s official newspaper, Krasnaya Zvezda, on 12 August has said that the VVS will be activating several new aircraft in the coming years,

“The Sukhoi Su-57 multirole combat aircraft will complete its state trials before the end of the year, while those of the Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-35 fighter will have been completed by the end of 2021. The trials are planned to be followed by the procurement of the serial production aircraft,” this was in reference to the re-equipping of three aircraft regiments with the Su-57.

When the Indians dropped their partnership plans the VVS dropped their order to 12, it would seem to some, that given the chances of a new customer suddenly that was increased to 76 following a reported drop in price of 20%...or perhaps to demonstrate confidence in the product.

It remains interesting to see if anything further develops as the project was badly in need of funding when India decided to withdraw from the partnership, and Russia... like everyone else has to prioritise weapon programs. Defense cuts in the budget resulted in decreased funds or cancelations to intercontinental nuclear powered missiles, destroyers, and aircraft carriers.

Technical challenges for the Su-57s remains the engine a Saturn izdeliye 30 which has experienced development delays. At present the SU-57 is unable to supercruise with its present Saturn AL-41F1S, which is also powering the SU-35S. However this engine has certainly been of interest to the Chinese and may well be to the Turks,

 

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