Turkey - a real turkey?

Interesting developments in Turkey. We will have to wait and see if this marks a turning point. There are celebrations in Istanbul and it seems a lot of hope for a better future.

Opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) candidate Ekrem Imamoglu was confirmed as the winner of the March 31 Istanbul mayor's race by Turkish election authorities on Wednesday.

Speaking from the steps of city hall Wednesday, the 48-year-old Imamoglu called the victory, "a new dawn for Istanbul."

Turkish opposition candidate confirmed winner of Istanbul mayoral race | DW | 17.04.2019

Istanbul residents have been voting to elect a new mayor after an opposition candidate's surprise victory in March was annulled. Ekrem Imamoglu won by 13,000 votes, prompting allegations of irregularities from Turkey's ruling AK party. Mr Imamoglu has vowed to "battle for democracy" and polls say he is likely to beat former Prime Minister Binali Yildirim for a second time. The vote is being seen as a key test for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

As a former mayor of Istanbul - Turkey's economic and cultural centre, home to 15 million people - Mr Erdogan has often said that "he who wins Istanbul wins Turkey".

Istanbul votes again in election key for Erdogan
Yes, the Higher Electoral Court has accepted the result; Erdogan has congratulated Imamoglu (which means, by the way, 'son of the Imam') and Binali Yildirim (former PM) has accepted defeat.

But from what I can see, there are no elections for a couple of years - either general or Municipal - so Erdogan can work his 'magic' back on the electorate. He is a survivor...

...but Ekrim might be the charismatic leader the main opposition centralist and secularist CHP need to replace Kilicdaroglu and win future elections. At the moment Turkish politics is dominated - as it always has been - by old, grey men. The Anatolian peasantry have voted for Erdogan and the AKP because he has brought them relative prosperity over the last 15-20 years, but with a tanking economy, spiralling inflation and youth unemployment (coupled with rampant nepotism) that support is clearly not a given. Insha’allah.
 
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Some Turkish Air Force personnel have been in Russia quite a bit longer...my fantastical comment was referring to an Erdogan statement over two years ago for ROKETSAN to co-produce the S-400, with ASELSAN radars. Hasn't happened; unlikely to happen. same with the S-500...
I guess ‘fantastical’ covers a few other Erdogan's pronouncements and dreams.

That he can have the S-400 , and persuade Trump to also allow F-35’s.
Turkey will lose F-35 warplane if Russia arms deal goes ahead, U.S. says - Reuters

That the Anadolo will then be a 'Lightning Carrier’.
Will S-400 destroy Turkey's aircraft carrier dream? | Ahval

That there will be Turkish/Russian/Chinese substitutes should the F-35 be blocked.
Can Turkey find substitute for F-35? | Ahval

Erdogan dreams and Turkey seems to heading out of NATO.
How will S-400 affair affect Turkish-NATO ties?
 
Once the decision by Turkey was made, and the S-400 deal is implemented, the sanctions on the F-35 and co-production of F-35 parts is a certainty given the bipartisan consensus of the US Congress.

How Turkey/Erdogan react to that ban will then directly effect the situation of Turkey’s huge F-16 fleet, and other US weapon systems, along with other ongoing US military co-production ventures.

It will have major ramifications with the Turkish/NATO relationship which has recently been the subject of scrutiny with the S-400 purchase.

An analogy could be made of an Elephant in the room. While sitting quietly in the corner with only occasional small breakages it was ignored. When it started rampaging and causing major damage, consideration to ejecting it has been on the rise. Problem is windows and doors are too small, a major structural hole would have to be made which will weaken the whole building, and it will wound the Elephant which will react badly. What does one do? Unfortunately shooting the Elephant, which appears to be in musth, is not an option!

Why Turkey Turned Its Back on the United States and Embraced Russia

It is a very thorny question for which a solution is yet to be found.
 
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Metin Gurcan - a well-connected journo - has written quite a detailed article on the proposed S-400 deployment.

As predicted, the TELs will be deployed on the outskirts of Ankara.

Where will the S-400s be deployed?
I still can't quite fathom what the hell they are doing...with Incrilik housing a big FO U.S. base and with plenty of AD assets there and other nations to support them and with all these F35 contracts to support... I am just struggling to understand the logical decision making process....it's not like the U.S. will let them be invaded...we have bloody nukes stationed there for Christ's sakes....
 
I have my own opinion of Turkey to the point i would not go on holiday there as my hard earned cash deserves somewhere else. Having worked with a few my opinions have been well founded. I think though this is Erdogan himself and his associates. Turkish military have plenty of experience of working with NATO/US forces so probably privately think this is a barking idea but then dont forget a lot of the military were purged recently so this decision may not have washed with the old guard.
 
I have my own opinion of Turkey to the point i would not go on holiday there as my hard earned cash deserves somewhere else. Having worked with a few my opinions have been well founded. I think though this is Erdogan himself and his associates. Turkish military have plenty of experience of working with NATO/US forces so probably privately think this is a barking idea but then dont forget a lot of the military were purged recently so this decision may not have washed with the old guard.
The last time I went was in 2016 with BA and was f-ing cheap, including the hotel accommodation, just booked before the Istanbul bombings (which happened literally the weekend after we booked the trip) and we said "fk-it let's do it" despite the situation. My threat assessment at the time and logic was if something just went off, the services will be on more alert and you will probably be more safe as there will be more of around..
 
I'm beginning to think Erdogan's "grand plan" is to leave NATO, but he hasn't got the balls to do so/say it up-front . . . so he is doing his best to piss-off everyone else - in particular the USA - so that he can deny responsibility, when he is "expelled" :( .
 
I still can't quite fathom what the hell they are doing...with Incrilik housing a big FO U.S. base and with plenty of AD assets there and other nations to support them and with all these F35 contracts to support... I am just struggling to understand the logical decision making process....it's not like the U.S. will let them be invaded...we have bloody nukes stationed there for Christ's sakes....
The missiles are born out of two issues: almost three years ago the presidential palace and the Grand National Assembly, inter alia, were attacked by F-16s and ATAK helicopters. Erdogan wants to be defended by these shiny new toys which are positioned pretty much near the centre of the country to deal with an insider threat (irrespective that these are an area denial weapon, and completely inappropriate for the task they e been allocated). Secondly, Turkey has been in negotiations to acquire Patriot for almost 20 years, with virtually no progress until very, very recently. This has led to intense frustration within the Defence Industry Directorate (SSM).

As an aside, in July 2017, the Defence Minister announced, appropriately at Bastille Day at the French Embassy, a design contract with EUROSAM to develop an indigenous system to replace Turkey’s elderly GBAD (they still have Rapier) That will rollout in the late 2020s.
 
Secondly, Turkey has been in negotiations to acquire Patriot for almost 20 years, with virtually no progress until very, very recently.
Ever stopped to question why? Because Crash, they were asking for technology transfer along with the missiles that the US were simply not prepared to entertain.

Much along the lines of the behaviour and demands that have screwed up all the other co-operative ‘deals’ the Turks have recently seen evaporate.
 
Ever stopped to question why? Because Crash, they were asking for technology transfer along with the missiles that the US were simply not prepared to entertain.

Much along the lines of the behaviour and demands that have screwed up all the other co-operative ‘deals’ the Turks have recently seen evaporate.
I know that
 
And here they come! Beyond mild statements of disapproval, it will be interesting to see what other NATO allies apart from the USA are prepared to do about it.

'First components of Russian-made S-400 missile system have arrived in Ankara, Turkish officials said.

'Russia has started delivery of its advanced aerial defense system S-400 to NATO member Turkey with a Russian military cargo plane landing to the Murted Air Base outside Ankara on Friday. "The delivery of parts belonging to the system will continue in the coming days," Turkey's Defense Industry Directorate said. "Once the system is completely ready, it will begin to be used in a way determined by the relevant authorities." '

Turkey receives first S-400 missile delivery from Russia | DW | 12.07.2019
 
And here they come! Beyond mild statements of disapproval, it will be interesting to see what other NATO allies apart from the USA are prepared to do about it.

'First components of Russian-made S-400 missile system have arrived in Ankara, Turkish officials said.

'Russia has started delivery of its advanced aerial defense system S-400 to NATO member Turkey with a Russian military cargo plane landing to the Murted Air Base outside Ankara on Friday. "The delivery of parts belonging to the system will continue in the coming days," Turkey's Defense Industry Directorate said. "Once the system is completely ready, it will begin to be used in a way determined by the relevant authorities." '

Turkey receives first S-400 missile delivery from Russia | DW | 12.07.2019
From a LINK within the above . . . .

Originally published by: DW.com, on 14 JUNE 2019.

Is NATO's future at risk over US-Turkey rift?

No one is arguing against Turkey's right to buy an air defense system anywhere it wants. But the price of the Russian S-400 may be higher than Ankara anticipated — and could cost all NATO allies. Teri Schultz reports.

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Is NATO's future at risk over US-Turkey rift? | DW | 14.06.2019
 
From a LINK within the above . . . .

Originally published by: DW.com, on 14 JUNE 2019.

Is NATO's future at risk over US-Turkey rift?

No one is arguing against Turkey's right to buy an air defense system anywhere it wants. But the price of the Russian S-400 may be higher than Ankara anticipated — and could cost all NATO allies. Teri Schultz reports.

View attachment 403587

Is NATO's future at risk over US-Turkey rift? | DW | 14.06.2019
Well, unless the Turks trigger Article 13 themselves, there's no way to evict them from the Alliance. Not that any of the other 28 would try, as Alliance cohesion is the heart of NATO.
 
Erdogan is making best use of Turkey's strategic location at the gateway between Europe, Russia and the Middle East.

You've got to be really clever to win that game when you have two superpowers looking at you.

The Turkish air force is listed as having ~50 F-4Es (mostly recon I think) and ~250 F-16 C&D models, so well in need of updating if they are going to remain credible.

If they don't get the F-35 then potential options for Su-35 / MiG 35 might be Erdogan's path.
 
The Turkish air force is listed as having ~50 F-4Es (mostly recon I think) and ~250 F-16 C&D models, so well in need of updating if they are going to remain credible.

If they don't get the F-35 then potential options for Su-35 / MiG 35 might be Erdogan's path.
And as if by magic...

'Russia has signaled a willingness to sell Russian-made war planes to Turkey if the United States halts delivery of F-35 fighter jets. Alexander Mikheev, head of Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport, said on April 24 that Russia is ready to discuss the possibility, according to Interfax news agency.'

Russia looks at supplying Russian jets to Turkey - Turkey News
 
Well, unless the Turks trigger Article 13 themselves, there's no way to evict them from the Alliance. Not that any of the other 28 would try, as Alliance cohesion is the heart of NATO.
As i have mentioned before they feature heavily in Kabul, "looking after" the Coalition side of the airport. No one else has the drive or inclination to do it and as for the other airfields the US already look after Bagram, KAF, Bastion(ish). The talians do Herat and Germany does Mes. So someone would have to step up and take that on.
Of course whoever would probably send more lower ranks like Privates and JNCO's to do normal tasks and not weirdly SNCO's and Officers........i cannot for the life of me wonder why they do that!!!!! :roll:
 
it will be interesting to see what other NATO allies apart from the USA are prepared to do about it.
It would also be interesting to know how they felt about the possible compromise of the F-35 that many of them have bought, and what they feel about Turkey’s disregard for NATO policies on commonality of weapon systems?

Probably sit back and let the US do the major share in dealing with it, much as they tend to do it in a lot of NATO behaviour.

So far all countries buying the F-35 are said to be in consensus about not allowing it to be compromised by the Turkish S-400 missile buy, a position that would seem eminently logical to everyone except the Turks.
 
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