Turkey - a real turkey?

#1
The Don has increased trade tariffs to Turkey causing a 20% drop in the value to the Turkish Lira.

Gruaniad
BBC - Turkey

Will this simply drive Turkey into the arms of Putin?

It seems to me that Turkey is hovering between the EU and Russian influence. I don't think Turkey is a good fit with either as a largely Muslim state with a virtual dictator, It's sort of wanted, but not wanted by the EU, and Muslim states are not Vlad the Impaler's favourite either.

Where does it go from here?
 
#2
The Don has increased trade tariffs to Turkey causing a 20% drop in the value to the Turkish Lira.

Gruaniad
BBC - Turkey

Will this simply drive Turkey into the arms or Putin?

It seems to me that Turkey is hovering between the EU and Russian influence. I don't think Turkey is a good fit with either as a largely Muslim state with a virtual dictator, It's sort of wanted, but not wanted by the EU, and Muslim states are not Vlad the Impaler's favourite either.

Where does it go from here?
I would hazard a guess it will not end well.

The Turkish Lira is no stranger to sharp devaluations, so maybe more of the same?.
 
#3
The Don has increased trade tariffs to Turkey causing a 20% drop in the value to the Turkish Lira.

Gruaniad
BBC - Turkey

Will this simply drive Turkey into the arms of Putin?

It seems to me that Turkey is hovering between the EU and Russian influence. I don't think Turkey is a good fit with either as a largely Muslim state with a virtual dictator, It's sort of wanted, but not wanted by the EU, and Muslim states are not Vlad the Impaler's favourite either.

Where does it go from here?
Vlad doesn’t seem to have a problem bolstering countries that are not exactly favourites of the west like Syria for example. If he can use minimal resources to throw a country a bone to create unease on the world stage, he would do it in a heartbeat with a smile.Turkey being Muslim majority will not matter as they are a Nato member, that will be the cherry on top as far as Russia is concerned.If Donny wants to play games he might just lose a strategic location for middle eastern adventures and vlad can pick one up...
 
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#4
Vlad doesn’t seem to have a problem bolstering countries that are not exactly favourites of the west like Syria for example. If he can use minimal resources to throw a country a bone to create unease on the world stage, he would do it in a heartbeat with a smile.Turkey being Muslim majority will not matter as they are a Nato member, that will be the cherry on top as far as Russia is concerned.If Donny wants to play games he might just lose a strategic location for middle eastern adventures and vlad can pick one up...
The Russians have been courting Turkey for a while, although the relationship gets a bit abusive from time to time. I agree that the Americans are not thinking this one through very well.
 
#5
Personally I am fine with letting Putin have Turkey. We took Ukraine from him, so it's only fair. Turkey isn't a true ally anyway. It's not a true Western country, it doesn't share our values or our worldview. That is becoming more and more evident by the day under Erdogan's rule.

I'm not scared of an angsty yet declining Russia and frankly Turkey is more trouble than it's worth. If they wanted to be a secular democracy then fine, but they don't so they don't fit with us. I understand geopolitics is a chess game but you also have to remember what you're playing for.

What Turkey stands for today is not something I want my country playing for.
 
#6
I assume that Turkey must be putting similar tariffs on US products, the US isn’t doing this to destabilise the country, it’s a trade thing. Hence the talk of pushing Turkey to Russia seems a bit sensational just like the press reports.

I could be wrong of course but that was my take on his tariffs.
 
#7
Ummm, I was somewhat under the impression that a fall in the Turkish Lire, due to general Erdoganisms and not quite earning enough to payback all the loans on time (etc. etc.), was the trigger for Trumps tariff barrier on Turkish aluminium and steel. In other words, the cost in US-dollars is/was going down, so the tariffs were imposed to prevent Turkish imports being bought in preference to US-made stuff.
 
#8
I assume that Turkey must be putting similar tariffs on US products, the US isn’t doing this to destabilise the country, it’s a trade thing. Hence the talk of pushing Turkey to Russia seems a bit sensational just like the press reports.

I could be wrong of course but that was my take on his tariffs.
I think the idea is that this falls under the "unintended consequences" column.
 
#9
And here's the CBC's take on the issue. Lira plunges further after Trump doubles steel and aluminum tariffs against Turkey | CBC News

Trump announced:
"I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar!" Trump wrote in an early morning post on Twitter. "Aluminum will now be 20 per cent and Steel 50 per cent. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!"
Or in other words, "we imposed trade restrictions and their currency fell making their goods cheaper, so we need more tariffs" to make up for it.

The Turks have said they will retaliate.

The CBC story has a chart (I can't link it here) which shows that Turkey owes a lot of money to a number of western banks. The Spanish and French in particular hold a lot of it - Spain $83.9 billion and France $37 billion. The UK is less exposed at $18.7 billion (and Canada only $1.4 billion). German, Italian, Japanese, and US banks are exposed to similar degrees as UK banks.

If Turkey goes further into crisis and can't repay their loans, I would not be surprised if a number of Euro-zone banks (Spanish especially) will need another bail-out.
While the risk to Canada remains low, Rai says if the situation gets worse Turkey could cause pain for Europe's economy, because many European banks are heavily exposed to the country's debt.
So those who are shrugging and saying that "it's none of my concern" may be in for an unpleasant shock when the EU comes around rattling their tin for another bank bail out.
 
#10
Turkey ceased to be a reliable NATO ally when Erdogan assumed dictatorial powers.
Admitting Turkey to the EU would be an absolute disaster - and the EU knows it.
Turkey is the USA's 32nd largest trading partner with the USA exporting goods approx' $23 billion annually to Turkey and importing $9 billion from them - hardly cause for concern in the bigger picture.

The USA IS attempting to de-stabilise the Turkish economy in order, perhaps, to cause regime change - though Trump claims it is to squeeze/induce Erdogan to release an American Christian Pastor locked up, in violation of Human Rights, because of the increasingly hard line Islamism sweeping Turkey.

It doesn't bode well for Turkey - Turkish economists are already deriding Erdogan's economic policies and calling him to sack his relatives and cronies in key economic positions.
My guess is Turkey will approach the IMF for a bailout and Trump will place conditions on any loan rather in the manner he has placed conditions on any loans to Pakistan drowning in debt to China.
 
#11
Personally I am fine with letting Putin have Turkey. We took Ukraine from him, so it's only fair. Turkey isn't a true ally anyway. It's not a true Western country, it doesn't share our values or our worldview. That is becoming more and more evident by the day under Erdogan's rule.

I'm not scared of an angsty yet declining Russia and frankly Turkey is more trouble than it's worth. If they wanted to be a secular democracy then fine, but they don't so they don't fit with us. I understand geopolitics is a chess game but you also have to remember what you're playing for.

What Turkey stands for today is not something I want my country playing for.
We may have taken the Ukraine from Russia, but they kinda took the part they wanted back, not exactly a win for the west....
 
#12
Personally I am fine with letting Putin have Turkey. We took Ukraine from him, so it's only fair. Turkey isn't a true ally anyway. It's not a true Western country, it doesn't share our values or our worldview. That is becoming more and more evident by the day under Erdogan's rule.

I'm not scared of an angsty yet declining Russia and frankly Turkey is more trouble than it's worth. If they wanted to be a secular democracy then fine, but they don't so they don't fit with us. I understand geopolitics is a chess game but you also have to remember what you're playing for.

What Turkey stands for today is not something I want my country playing for.
Without knowing the lease details I assume though that the US run the risk of losing access to Incirlik air base, which is strategically important to their activities in the Middle East, as well as being located conveniently to the South of Russia. The Russians would love to see them out of there.
 
#13
Without knowing the lease details I assume though that the US run the risk of losing access to Incirlik air base, which is strategically important to their activities in the Middle East, as well as being located conveniently to the South of Russia. The Russians would love to see them out of there.
There is another little crocodile in the river........Turkey is the Framework Nation in Kabul for the NATO RS Mission. So what......well as no one else seems to want to take on the role then Turkey are still there running the Kabul NATO military airfield. They were running it back in 2016 during the failed coup and the subsequent purge of high ranking military personnel caused some concern in Kabul for the Turks serving there.
During the coup 2 Generals under the RS Mission amazingly found themselves in Dubai of all places(!!)...... until the UAE decided that playing to Erdogan who was not removed during the failed coup was better and deported them to Turkey.
Turkish generals detained by UAE as coup crackdown continues
 
#15
The Russians have been courting Turkey for a while, although the relationship gets a bit abusive from time to time. I agree that the Americans are not thinking this one through very well.
Turks are demanding the Arrest of USAF officers at Incirlik AB
Turkish lawyers want to raid İncirlik Air Base and arrest U.S. Air Force officers

The 60-page criminal complaint specifically names Col. John C. Walker, Col. Michael H. Manion, Col. David Eaglen, Col. David Trucksa, Lt. Col. Timothy J. Cook, Lt. Col. Mack R. Coker, Sgt. Thomas S. Cooper, Sgt. Vegas M. Clark and others deployed to İncirlik Base, asking for their detention.
 
#16
Turks are demanding the Arrest of USAF officers at Incirlik AB
Turkish lawyers want to raid İncirlik Air Base and arrest U.S. Air Force officers

The 60-page criminal complaint specifically names Col. John C. Walker, Col. Michael H. Manion, Col. David Eaglen, Col. David Trucksa, Lt. Col. Timothy J. Cook, Lt. Col. Mack R. Coker, Sgt. Thomas S. Cooper, Sgt. Vegas M. Clark and others deployed to İncirlik Base, asking for their detention.
Good luck with that. Looks like they're trying to create pawns out of thin air.
 
#17
Without knowing the lease details I assume though that the US run the risk of losing access to Incirlik air base, which is strategically important to their activities in the Middle East, as well as being located conveniently to the South of Russia. The Russians would love to see them out of there.
Recent news stories report the US planning a large diplomatic & military presence in Erbil, Kurdistan.
Iraq and Turkey displeased, Kurds happy.
 
#20
The news on German TV this morning suggested that Turkey might get pushed in the direction of Russia.
The question is, just how well will two megalomaniac dictators get on together? They are not exactly birds of a feather.
 

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