Trade Deals

Bloomberg gave the Remain Campaign a quarter of a million quid. Their billionaire owner is massively anti-Brexit.

And reading some of their stuff; it's obvious they're an anti-Brexit propaganda rag rather than anything that should be taken serious.
So?

Its either true, or its not.

Attempting to shoot the messenger because you don't like the message, eh?

Bloomberg is very highly regarded.

When you say they're "anti Brexit", what you really mean is, they point out Brexit hasn't actually gone as well as Johnson et al promised.
 
I run a retail business, I imported from the EU and non-EU countries

Guess what in this current climate freight costs have soared through the roof (air and sea) as well as import formalities being complicated from EU based countries.

Whilst business is still operational and making a profit the overheads are increasing due to surcharges so costs have to passed onto the end user, which whilst making sense means I adjust my business strategy to volume selling as the products themselves are made from high quality raw materials which unfortunately are expensive

Thanks Boris
 
Bloomberg gave the Remain Campaign a quarter of a million quid. Their billionaire owner is massively anti-Brexit.

And reading some of their stuff; it's obvious they're an anti-Brexit propaganda rag rather than anything that should be taken serious.

Its certainly cherry picking the headlines

From the story


The economy will grow 6.4% in 2021, second-best among the Group of Eight developed countries, followed by a G-8 leading 5.4% gain in 2022, according to the median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, the largest exchange-traded fund investing in the U.K., shows record appetite for British equity, with money flows surging 126% since 2016 to an all-time high, data compiled by Bloomberg show.


Which actually sounds pretty good. So best they try to play it down.

This bit I dont understand

For much of the 21st century, the U.K. -- abetted by London's command of international financial services -- was the G-8 leader in terms of economic growth, and was No. 1 in 2014, and No. 2 in 2015 and 2016. The referendum transformed Britain into an also-ran, with U.K. GDP growth sinking to No. 6 in 2017 and 2018, No. 5 in 2019 and most likely worst in 2020. Even if the forecasts are right and Britain rebounds to No. 2 in 2021 and No. 1 in 2022, it will revert to a snail's pace of 1.8% in 2023, not much better than Japan's 1.2%, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The economic growth took a hit over the last few years but (Note the underlined) its forecasted to be back at No1 by 2022. Yet they still play it down.


And just to show what a shitcunt the author is

While Britain is diminished, Greece is the opposite: eschewing rejection of the euro, embracing EU membership and rebounding from a debt crisis and depression caused by the financial crisis. Greece’s economic growth will exceed the EU’s advance of 4.4% by almost a percentage point in 2022 and continue to outperform in 2023, according to 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Total trade between Greece and the EU increased 16% since 2018.

Greece? ******* Greece? Rebounded from a debt crisis eh?

Their debt in 2009 was 300 billion Euros, with various bailouts, tax increases, benefits cuts after twelve long years they have managed to get the debt down to errrrrrrr 389 billion Euros.

I also like the fact the article says the cause was the financial crisis, not the Greek government spunking money up the wall.
 
Its certainly cherry picking the headlines

From the story


The economy will grow 6.4% in 2021, second-best among the Group of Eight developed countries, followed by a G-8 leading 5.4% gain in 2022, according to the median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, the largest exchange-traded fund investing in the U.K., shows record appetite for British equity, with money flows surging 126% since 2016 to an all-time high, data compiled by Bloomberg show.


Which actually sounds pretty good. So best they try to play it down.

This bit I dont understand

For much of the 21st century, the U.K. -- abetted by London's command of international financial services -- was the G-8 leader in terms of economic growth, and was No. 1 in 2014, and No. 2 in 2015 and 2016. The referendum transformed Britain into an also-ran, with U.K. GDP growth sinking to No. 6 in 2017 and 2018, No. 5 in 2019 and most likely worst in 2020. Even if the forecasts are right and Britain rebounds to No. 2 in 2021 and No. 1 in 2022, it will revert to a snail's pace of 1.8% in 2023, not much better than Japan's 1.2%, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The economic growth took a hit over the last few years but (Note the underlined) its forecasted to be back at No1 by 2022. Yet they still play it down.


And just to show what a shitcunt the author is

While Britain is diminished, Greece is the opposite: eschewing rejection of the euro, embracing EU membership and rebounding from a debt crisis and depression caused by the financial crisis. Greece’s economic growth will exceed the EU’s advance of 4.4% by almost a percentage point in 2022 and continue to outperform in 2023, according to 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Total trade between Greece and the EU increased 16% since 2018.

Greece? ******* Greece? Rebounded from a debt crisis eh?

Their debt in 2009 was 300 billion Euros, with various bailouts, tax increases, benefits cuts after twelve long years they have managed to get the debt down to errrrrrrr 389 billion Euros.

I also like the fact the article says the cause was the financial crisis, not the Greek government spunking money up the wall.
Bloomberg journalists get paid bonuses according to whether their reports affect the financial markets.
Bloomberg News Pays Reporters More If Their Stories Move Markets

Bloomberg News has an unusual practice of paying some of its reporters explicitly for publishing "market-moving" stories.
This is one of many metrics that is factored into reporters' annual bonuses. (...)

Most of the people we spoke to, especially traders, were startled to hear about this practice, worrying that it might create an incentive for Bloomberg reporters to "push" or stretch stories with the specific aim of moving markets. Traders react instantly to headlines and news stories, and the decisions they make often make or lose significant amounts of money.

The story gives some examples of Bloomberg stories causing financial gyrations and those stories later having been exposed as false or exaggerated.

I've made a number of posts on ARRSE in the past showing Bloomberg stories posted by others to be false or exaggerated. Sometimes they simply make shit up and I've posted about that before as well.

Bloomberg make the Daily Mail look like thoughtful, careful, professional journalism and I have no idea why anyone would take them seriously unless their story can be verified by a credible third party.
 
Bloomberg journalists get paid bonuses according to whether their reports affect the financial markets.
Bloomberg News Pays Reporters More If Their Stories Move Markets



The story gives some examples of Bloomberg stories causing financial gyrations and those stories later having been exposed as false or exaggerated.

I've made a number of posts on ARRSE in the past showing Bloomberg stories posted by others to be false or exaggerated. Sometimes they simply make shit up and I've posted about that before as well.

Bloomberg make the Daily Mail look like thoughtful, careful, professional journalism and I have no idea why anyone would take them seriously unless their story can be verified by a credible third party.
You'll find credible journos list their credible sources... otherwise without a verified 3rd party source it amounts to nothing more than waffle/slander/bullsh*t
 
You'll find credible journos list their credible sources... otherwise without a verified 3rd party source it amounts to nothing more than waffle/slander/bullsh*t
One of the favourite tactics of dodgy journalists is to cite a report written by someone else but then to slant or exaggerate or take out of context what was said in it. They know that very few readers will do the work involved in finding the original third party report, reading through it, and figuring out what it means. And it doesn't matter if the Bloomberg report is found out to be false or exaggerated days later, the story is over by then and the retraction ends up in fine print somewhere few people will ever read.

A couple of years ago Bloomberg did a hatchet job on Supermicro, who make computer servers for customer such as telecoms providers. Bloomberg claimed that the Chinese were inserting back doors into Supermicro's kit and mainly cited anonymous American intelligence officials as their source. They gave one named source from an independent expert on this sort of thing as their "proof" of the claims from these anonymous American intelligence officials. So they had a verifiable source.

The rest of the mainstream press re-published Bloomberg's claims and the share price of Supermicro tumbled. Markets were "moved". None of them though spoke to the named source about it.

However, one well regarded computer security podcast did poke into the story, and got hold of the named source to interview him. This guy said that Bloomberg had distorted what he said, taken it out of context, and simply made things up. He didn't believe Bloomberg's story and thought it was far fetched.

This was one specialist IT industry podcast. So far as I am aware, neither Bloomberg nor the rest of the popular press bothered to follow up on this or retract their stories. Bloomberg's original story and the reprints of it elsewhere still stand in the minds of the general public.

So while providing citations of sources might theoretically give an aura of respectability to a story, in reality it doesn't mean much if few people bother or are able to follow up on it themselves.

Realistically, you have to look at the track record of a publication and form a judgment of whether they are trustworthy. I don't see Bloomberg as trustworthy because of their track record, so I wouldn't rely on them for anything that I didn't take the time to independently verify from other sources. I've said this multiple times before in connection with other topics. And if you're going to do that, then why bother with Bloomberg?
 

Yokel

LE
There is not enough positivity on this thread. There was news just this week - good news!

UK and Australia sign world-class trade deal

The UK has signed an historic trade agreement with Australia, our first from scratch since leaving the EU, setting new global standards in digital and services and creating new work and travel opportunities for Brits and Aussies.

The deal was agreed in principle by the Prime Minister and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in London in June, and negotiators have now finalised all chapters of the agreement.

The final deal was signed in a virtual ceremony by International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan on Thursday night, and will now be laid in Parliament for a period of scrutiny.

The deal is expected to unlock £10.4 billion of additional trade, boosting our economy and increasing wages across the UK, while eliminating tariffs on 100% of UK exports.

It is a deal tailored to the UK economy, with cutting-edge agreements in areas where Britain is a world leader, including in digital and tech, along with increased access to Australia for the UK’s powerhouse service sectors.
 
There is not enough positivity on this thread. There was news just this week - good news!

UK and Australia sign world-class trade deal

The UK has signed an historic trade agreement with Australia, our first from scratch since leaving the EU, setting new global standards in digital and services and creating new work and travel opportunities for Brits and Aussies.

The deal was agreed in principle by the Prime Minister and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in London in June, and negotiators have now finalised all chapters of the agreement.

The final deal was signed in a virtual ceremony by International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan on Thursday night, and will now be laid in Parliament for a period of scrutiny.

The deal is expected to unlock £10.4 billion of additional trade, boosting our economy and increasing wages across the UK, while eliminating tariffs on 100% of UK exports.

It is a deal tailored to the UK economy, with cutting-edge agreements in areas where Britain is a world leader, including in digital and tech, along with increased access to Australia for the UK’s powerhouse service sectors.
IMG_1265.jpg
 
We had an election this past autumn in Canada, and parliament returned with more or less the same results as before the election.

The trade minister, Mary Ng, was re-appointed. A new mandate letter was issued on Thursday outlining her responsibilities. I won't bother with most of the letter as it's not relevant, but one of the items on the list is this bit:

Advancing negotiations with the United Kingdom towards a fully realized Canada-UK Trade Agreement.


Minister of International Trade, Export Promotion, Small Business and Economic Development Mandate Letter
 

Yokel

LE

Do you have a source for that? A website perhaps? Why does this seem to predict that exports to Australia cannot increase, but caveats the warning about loss of GDP post Brexit with the word 'could'?

As a fraction of the global economy, is the Eurozone growing or shrinking?

We had an election this past autumn in Canada, and parliament returned with more or less the same results as before the election.

The trade minister, Mary Ng, was re-appointed. A new mandate letter was issued on Thursday outlining her responsibilities. I won't bother with most of the letter as it's not relevant, but one of the items on the list is this bit:




Minister of International Trade, Export Promotion, Small Business and Economic Development Mandate Letter

Is the Canadian economy growing in terms of its share of international trade?
 
Do you have a source for that? A website perhaps? Why does this seem to predict that exports to Australia cannot increase, but caveats the warning about loss of GDP post Brexit with the word 'could'?
Report is from BBC's website.

Figures are from HMG - Dept for International Trade, Office for Budget Responsibility.
 
And notice to Canadian parliament was issued that trade negotiations are going ahead. This is a new deal to replace the existing interim deal. The new deal will be more closely tailored to Canada-UK relations than the Canada-EU deal was. Negotiations are to start within 90 days. The existing deal remains in effect until replaced by the new one.

Notice of Intent to enter into negotiations toward a Canada-United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement

Dear Members of Parliament:

In accordance with the enhanced transparency requirements set out in the amended Policy on Tabling of Treaties in Parliament, I am pleased to notify the House of Commons of the government’s intent to initiate negotiations toward a new, comprehensive Canada-United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The Government of Canada intends to commence negotiations by holding a first round of negotiations with the United Kingdom no earlier than 90 days from the date of this notice.

The notice explains the background of the interim agreement.
Canada and the United Kingdom share a broad and extensive relationship, built on shared history and values and strong economic ties. Following the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union, Canada and the United Kingdom concluded an interim Trade Continuity Agreement that provides stability and continuity for Canadian businesses by carrying forward the benefits of the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreeement. The Government of Canada now has the opportunity to negotiate an ambitious, modern and comprehensive FTA that best reflects Canada’s inclusive approach to trade and our bilateral trade relationship with the United Kingdom.

Public consultations were conducted in the spring of 2021 to get feedback on what the negotiations were to cover. Here's the report.
Report: Public Consultations on priorities for trade negotiations with the United Kingdom

Feedback with respect to support for Canada entering into free trade negotiations with the UK show that only 3 per cent were against it.

Level of stakeholder support
  • Positive (68%)
  • Neutral (17%)
  • Conditional (10%)
  • Negative (3%)
  • Cautious (2%)

Canadians also support the UK joining the CPTPP trade agreement and believe that Canada would benefit from the UK joining as the two countries would have similar positions on many issues. This is a trade deal covering many of the most important economies in the Pacific.
Overall, Canadians also shared positive views towards possible U.K. accession to the CPTPP, citing the potential to strengthen an important historical relationship, and deepen trade and investment ties. Stakeholders commented that Canada would have the opportunity to work with the U.K. within the CPTPP to advance shared objectives, and to strengthen rules-based trade at a time of increased protectionism. One stakeholder indicated that participation by the U.K. could create an incentive for others to join the CPTPP, generating additional opportunities for trade diversification and export-led growth. Overall, stakeholders suggested that Canada would benefit from the U.K.'s adherence to the CPTPP's comprehensive and high-standard rules and ambitious market access commitments.

The majority of feedback submissions from individuals suggest that a Canada-UK trade agreement should be used a step towards one that also includes Australia and New Zealand.
Of the 42 submissions from individuals, 28 suggested that any bilateral free trade agreement with the U.K. could constitute a step towards a broader trade agreement between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the U.K., with free movement of people being cited as a key area of interest.

The Canadian Alliance of British Pensioners also want some sort of pension treaty between Canada and the UK which gives annual pension increases to UK state pensioners living in Canada. I suspect this is based on arrangements which the UK already has with certain other countries.
In addition, we received 22 individual submissions and a petition by the Canadian Alliance of British Pensioners, with signatures representing 1,266 people, on a non-trade issue requesting that Canada seek to secure a commitment from the U.K. to provide annual pension increases to U.K. state pensioners living in Canada.
 
(...) Is the Canadian economy growing in terms of its share of international trade?
The countries of South and East Asia will be growing faster than the rest of the world. This is why the UK want to join the CPTPP, which contains a good number of those fast growing countries. Canada is already a member, and will apparently support the UK joining as well.

Aside from that, there is scope for the UK's trade with Canada to grow faster than either country's trade in general, so we need to keep that in mind. When talking about trade by the way we also need to look at services. A lot of the UK's exports are actually services rather than physical goods. One of the reports that I posted above mentions trade in services as being an important area for growth.
 

Yokel

LE
The countries of South and East Asia will be growing faster than the rest of the world. This is why the UK want to join the CPTPP, which contains a good number of those fast growing countries. Canada is already a member, and will apparently support the UK joining as well.

Aside from that, there is scope for the UK's trade with Canada to grow faster than either country's trade in general, so we need to keep that in mind. When talking about trade by the way we also need to look at services. A lot of the UK's exports are actually services rather than physical goods. One of the reports that I posted above mentions trade in services as being an important area for growth.

I always find it surprising what counts as services these days - they include things such as design services and technical consultancy, simulation and software development, and so on. The service sector is not just banking, insurance, and tourism.
 
I always find it surprising what counts as services these days - they include things such as design services and technical consultancy, simulation and software development, and so on. The service sector is not just banking, insurance, and tourism.
Architecture and engineering are specifically mentioned with respect to services, so I expect that these are seen as particularly promising areas.
 

Yokel

LE
UK signs first US state-level agreement with Indiana - GOV.UK

The UK today (May 27 2022) marks a milestone in trade relations with the US by signing its first state-level trade and economic development Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Indiana.

The MoU creates a framework to remove barriers to trade and investment, paving the way for UK and Indianan businesses to invest, export, expand and create jobs.

Indiana is an entrepreneurial powerhouse, offering UK firms significant opportunities in areas like renewable energy, advanced manufacturing and pharmaceuticals.

The UK is the seventh largest export market for Indiana, and the state buys $1.4 billion worth of goods from the UK. This agreement will act as a springboard to grow this even further.
 

Yokel

LE
UK launches ambitious trade deal with Gulf nations - GOV.UK
  • Talks kick off in Riyadh to agree trade deal with countries covering £33.1 billion of trade
  • UK food and drink, manufacturing and renewable energy sectors would benefit from new agreement between the UK and the Gulf Cooperation Council
  • Landmark deal would add at least £1.6 billion a year to the UK economy and support new jobs in key industries

Background:

  • The GCC is equivalent to the UK’s seventh largest export market, and total trade was worth £33.1 billion in 2021. Only the US and China buy more UK goods and services.
  • Government analysis shows that a deal with the GCC is expected to increase trade by at least 16%, add at least £1.6 billion a year to the UK economy and contribute an additional £600 million or more to UK workers’ annual wages.
  • There were around 600 GCC-owned businesses in the UK in 2019, supporting over 25,000 jobs – a number that tripled over the previous decade.
  • More than 85% of total UK goods exporters to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are SMEs. In 2020, around 10,700 UK SMEs exported goods to the UAE, 5,500 exported to Saudi Arabia and 4,100 exported to Qatar.
  • Consumers in the Gulf have significant purchasing power and huge appetite for UK products and services. For example, Qatar is one of the richest economies in the world, ranking 9th globally with a GDP per capita of $53,804 (£41,912) in 2020.
  • UK firms have £13.4 billion invested in GCC economies and GCC firms have £15.7 billion invested in the UK as of 2020.
  • The UK is the second largest services exporter in the world and services exports to the GCC were worth £12.1 billion last year.
  • Tariffs outlined on foods are mostly 5% across the GCC, where in some cases individual countries charge higher tariffs on specific products. Note that tariffs on chocolate does not include products containing alcohol.
  • Source of statistics: ONS UK trade, all partners, seasonally adjusted, Q4 2021; IMF World Economic Outlook April 2022; ONS Business Structural Database (2022) ; ONS Foreign Direct Investment involving UK companies, 2020 ; HMRC trade in goods by business characteristics, 2020 ; HMRC Overseas Trade in Goods statistics, March 2022.
 
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