Tory Leadership Round Three

Who goes through to round 4?

  • Gove

    Votes: 42 38.2%
  • Hunt

    Votes: 54 49.1%
  • Javid

    Votes: 6 5.5%
  • Johnson

    Votes: 101 91.8%
  • Stewart

    Votes: 37 33.6%

  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
The Shires want Boris, Rory is a nice guy but as I have said before we have voted in nice guys and fallen flat on their faces. IDS was a nice guy, we have learnt and compromised our principles and Boris will do nicely. The Tory Party cannot afford people who could with time do it, what we need someone who in the voters mind can and won't backpedal.
Boris Baggins, the Shire candidate has a nice ring to it.
 
It's possible that an unholy combination of psychotic Tory Remainers and defectors to the Brexit Party who still have a vote and understand what an opportunity Rory represents, might be able to get Stewart over the line, but I think enough of the faithful realise that, with anyone other than Boris, the Tories are toast. I also think that the majority of MPs are of that view and will not gamble their careers on Rory the Odd, Sajid the Silent, Hunt the Cnut or Rodent Gove.
I don't think Stewart has a hope in hell of getting over the final line.
I think he might end up as the PCP number 2 as they do all sorts of deals.

However the sort of wheeling and dealling that 300 people on one space can do I don't think is possible among all the party members in the Shires.

I suspect, at best/worst, it will be 60% Boris and 40% Stewart. I can't see Stewart doing any better than that.
Assuming he gets in to that 2 horse race.

BTW the Tories are toast anyway. Whist the party faithful like Boris if he does anything other than a very soft Brexit Business and half the UK will crucify him. However if he delivers a very soft Brexit that is not a real brexit the other half of the UK will revolt. The Tories can't win in 2019.

They have to hope that by the end of 2020, which ever way things go, the country will have calmed down to the point where the Tories look at least as good an option as Labour. Who may or may not shoot themselves in the foot over the next 12 months.

The problem Labour has is in trying so hard not to shoot themselves in the foot they don't seem to have taken any position on anything. At least not any solid position the whole party agrees on. This in itself is being held against them by everyone other than those who would vote for a pig wearing a red rosette.

Interesting times.
 
I suspect, had the information op been launched in the other direction with the same intensity, Brexit would have the majority. For example, I can't remember any TV channel going into the EU's constitutional structure in any depth, not least because it would rapidly become apparent that the European Parliament is not the institution your average Brit thinks of when someone says 'parliament'.

I posted this yesterday but I'll post it again - it's a good reminder of the profound constitutional issues that are at play, even if most people on both sides of the debate don't know it.

Long read: The European Union is a liberal empire, and it is about to fall
Yeah, it was amusing to see you posting the good professor who on all other occasions would make your head explode.

1560958881024.png

Wolfgang Streeck: ‘Look at London – it’s a second Rome. This is what an empire looks like’
 
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A couple of days ago it was suggested there would be "a coronation" now it looks like Boris' supporters are tactical voting because they are worried about some of the other candidates.
Do you honestly imagine that tactical voting is the exclusive preserve of Johnson supporters?

Of course you don't. It just fits your fervent hope that an eleventh hour miracle wil happen that puts Stewart in front. Then you'd be giving it a bit of, "they're all voting tactically to unseat Stewart.

Given Johnson's lead, it is more likely that tactical voting by his supporters is to get a preferred runner-up who will then support Johnson in office rather than work against him.

I still half think though that the winner here (regardless of whom) is little more than a sacrificial lamb to execute Brexit and allow the party time to regroup before the next GE. Whatever this new leader/PM brings about will displeasure up to two thirds of the electorate, making him perhaps a little toxic after the event.
 
I thought that machines cannot pick out truly random numbers because the computer would be using a set algorithm over and over again.
It is a psuedo random number most of the time. However whilst it is not a mathematically pure random number it is more than good emough for where they are normally used.

However true solid-state* computer generated random numbers have ben around since the mid 1990's for things like smart cards etc. Though most computers don't have this system as they dn't need random numbers for RSA.

*Thermionic valve computers have always had true random number generaters. eg ERNIE for Premium Bonds.
 
Boris elected PM.
Labour change to second referendum and backing remain stance.
Boris calls GE.
Boris wins GE with 65 seat majority.
Corbyn resigns.
We leave the EU 3 weeks later on WTO terms.
EU changes its mind and offers deal.

And we all live happily ever after.....
Wake up you're dreaming!

I can tell because you dreamed Corbyn resigned and there's no chance of that happening!
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I still half think though that the winner here (regardless of whom) is little more than a sacrificial lamb to execute Brexit and allow the party time to regroup before the next GE. Whatever this new leader/PM brings about will displeasure up to two thirds of the electorate, making him perhaps a little toxic after the event.
BoJo is mid 50's. If he can execute a successful Brexit, he'll fancy his chances at winning the next GE. And if he wins that, he's young(ish) enough to try winning a second one.

Wordsmith
 
Wake up you're dreaming!

I can tell because you dreamed Corbyn resigned and there's no chance of that happening!
God dammit!!!

Does that mean my 3 hours of sexual debauchery with Esther Mcvey and Liz Kendall isnt happening either?
 
BoJo is mid 50's. If he can execute a successful Brexit, he'll fancy his chances at winning the next GE. And if he wins that, he's young(ish) enough to try winning a second one.

Wordsmith
Undoubtedly but if the party perceive him as a bar to re-election because of Brexit they will dump him a sight faster than they got rid of PMTM. Also, Corbyn may have the brass balls to go for a VoNC after the dirty work has been done... remember, soon after the event up to something to the order of two thirds of the electorate may be very unhappy with the Conservatives depending on the form Brexit takes.

Given the shenanigans and events of the last three years, nothing is beyond possibility in our broken parliament.
 
When Boris wins I expect him to send the BBC a big bunch of flowers with a note thanks for the extra votes as nothing will get the back up of Tory members than the Beeb trying to screw over Boris.

He will then in his first week start dismantling the license fee as Boris can be a bit vindictive ala Marius Guppy.

I will then look forward to Boris playing with Jeremy, most likely replying to a question in Latin or Greek and then saying some thing like of course you only went to a minor public school and failed to get to university, then Jezza will explode rather like his friends in the middle east and their bombs.
 
God dammit!!!

Does that mean my 3 hours of sexual debauchery with Esther Mcvey and Liz Kendall isnt happening either?
3 hours? :grin::grin:
 
When Boris wins I expect him to send the BBC a big bunch of flowers with a note thanks for the extra votes as nothing will get the back up of Tory members than the Beeb trying to screw over Boris.

He will then in his first week start dismantling the license fee as Boris can be a bit vindictive ala Marius Guppy.

I will then look forward to Boris playing with Jeremy, most likely replying to a question in Latin or Greek and then saying some thing like of course you only went to a minor public school and failed to get to university, then Jezza will explode rather like his friends in the middle east and their bombs.
I shall prey each and every day for BoJo to turn around and say to the BBC "you're on your own now!"
 
When Boris wins I expect him to send the BBC a big bunch of flowers with a note thanks for the extra votes as nothing will get the back up of Tory members than the Beeb trying to screw over Boris.

He will then in his first week start dismantling the license fee as Boris can be a bit vindictive ala Marius Guppy.

I will then look forward to Boris playing with Jeremy, most likely replying to a question in Latin or Greek and then saying some thing like of course you only went to a minor public school and failed to get to university, then Jezza will explode rather like his friends in the middle east and their bombs.
Darius Guppy?
 
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